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題名 Would and Should Government Lie about Economic Statistics: Simulations Based on Evolutionary Cellular Automata
作者 陳樹衡
日期 1996-11
上傳時間 9-一月-2009 11:42:31 (UTC+8)
摘要 Are there any possible situations in which the state of the economy tomorrow depends on that of the economy today revealed by the government? If so, does the government have any ~incentives" to manipulate statistics? Using a simulation approach based on a model of evolutionary cellular automata, this paper tackles the issue by taking explicitly into account self- fulfilling expectations and the existence of multiple equilibria. We find that the government will not always lie, es- pecially when agents use the Bayesian learning algorithm to adjust their reliance on government statistics. Nevertheless, there is an incentive for the government to lie under certain circumstances, that is, when the economy, in terms of our model, is in a cloudy zone or the scale of the pessimistic shock is moderate.
關聯 Proceedings of the Fisrt Asia-Pacific Conference on Simulated Evolution and Learning (SEAL`96)
資料類型 conference
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BFb0028532
dc.creator (作者) 陳樹衡zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1996-11en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-一月-2009 11:42:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-一月-2009 11:42:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-一月-2009 11:42:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/23215-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Are there any possible situations in which the state of the economy tomorrow depends on that of the economy today revealed by the government? If so, does the government have any ~incentives" to manipulate statistics? Using a simulation approach based on a model of evolutionary cellular automata, this paper tackles the issue by taking explicitly into account self- fulfilling expectations and the existence of multiple equilibria. We find that the government will not always lie, es- pecially when agents use the Bayesian learning algorithm to adjust their reliance on government statistics. Nevertheless, there is an incentive for the government to lie under certain circumstances, that is, when the economy, in terms of our model, is in a cloudy zone or the scale of the pessimistic shock is moderate.-
dc.format application/pdfen_US
dc.format.extent 648362 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language enen_US
dc.language en-USen_US
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) Proceedings of the Fisrt Asia-Pacific Conference on Simulated Evolution and Learning (SEAL`96)en_US
dc.title (題名) Would and Should Government Lie about Economic Statistics: Simulations Based on Evolutionary Cellular Automataen_US
dc.type (資料類型) conferenceen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1007/BFb0028532-
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BFb0028532-