| dc.contributor.advisor | 陳坤銘 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 陳寶丞 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 陳寶丞 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2006 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 11-九月-2009 17:07:28 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 11-九月-2009 17:07:28 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 11-九月-2009 17:07:28 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0094351012 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30045 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國際經營與貿易研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 94351012 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 95 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 由於WTO杜哈回合談判正在積極進行，而且東亞各國整合的程度、涵括的領域、融入的國家均有愈來愈深、愈來愈廣的趨勢，相信此兩股貿易自由化風潮對我國商品的競爭力、投資與經貿活動均會產生一定的影響，因此有必要於此進行深入研究。故本研究利用FTAP模型模擬分析(1)東協加三FTA，(2) 杜哈回合談判，以及(3) 東協加三FTA+杜哈回合談判之經濟效果，以便了解上述三個情境對台灣的影響。 本研究實證結果顯示：(1) 東協加三FTA將使台灣的整體福利減少1252.26百萬美元；對總體經濟方面的影響，台灣實質GDP減少0.25%，並使貿易條件惡化0.86%。(2) 杜哈回合談判若順利完成，台灣整體福利將增加4875.09百萬美元。總體經濟方面，台灣實質GDP將成長1.01%，貿易條件將改善1.16%。(3) 在東協加三FTA簽定且杜哈回合談判順利完成下，台灣整體福利增加4211.92百萬美元；總體經濟方面，將使台灣的實質GDP增加0.88%，貿易條件改善0.73%。 另外，本研究發現：(1) 區域貿易協定與多邊貿易協定間，彼此對於福利與產出等效果，會有互相抵消的情況發生。多邊貿易協定的簽定會大幅的削弱區域貿易協定所產生的效果。然而，區域貿易協定卻僅能抵消掉小部分多邊貿易協定所產生的效果。(2) 區域間自由貿易協定的簽定，不但會使區域外的國家遭受福利與產出等總體經濟的損失，並且也會抵消掉多邊貿易協定所產生的各項效果。(3) 若是能儘快完成杜哈回合談判，各國家儘快完成多邊貿易協定，則各個國家對於簽署區域或是雙邊自由貿易協定的意願可能會大大的減低。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | In recent years, WTO has been undertaking Doha Round negotiation. In addition, there is a deepening and widening trend on the integration of South East Asia economies. There two meovements of global trade liberalization might considerably impact investment and international trade activities of Taiwan as well as its international competitiveness. Therefore, investigating the integration of South East Asia regional economy should be reckoned as important. In this light, this thesis, based on the FTAP model, conducts simulation analyses to testify how (1) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations, (2) the accomplishment of Doha Round and (3) a free trade agreement among ASEAN plus three nations and the accomplishment of Doha Round will influence the economy of Taiwan. The empirical results have shown: (1) ASEAN+3 FTA will decrease Taiwanese welfare by $1,252.26 million dollars. It will also deteriorate the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.25% and 0.86%. (2) The accomplishment of Doha Round will increase Taiwanese welfare by $4,875.09 million dollars. Additionally, it will improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 1.01% and 1.16%. (3) ASEAN+3 FTA and the accomplishment of Doha Round together will generate additional $4,211.92 million dollars welfare to Taiwan, and improve the real GDP and TOT of Taiwan by 0.88% and 0.73%, respectively. Moreover, this thesis has found several interesting policy implications. First, the effects of a regional trade agreement and a multilateral trade agreement on welfare and outputs will offset each other. The effect of a multilateral trade agreement is generally greater than the effect of a regional trade agreement. Second, free trade agreements of different regions not only harm the welfare and outputs of countries outside these regions but also offset the benefits provided by the multilateral trade agreement. Finally, considering it may decrease the willingness to develop regional or bilateral free trade agreements, governments should treat the accomplishment of the multilateral trade agreement, such as Doha Round, as the top priority. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究內容與方法 3 第三節 本文架構 3 第二章 WTO杜哈回合談判進展與東協加三發展概況 4 第一節 WTO杜哈回合NAMA議題談判進展 4 第二節 WTO杜哈回合農業議題談判進展 7 第三節 WTO杜哈回合服務業議題談判進展 11 第四節 東協加三發展概況 15 第三章 文獻回顧 18 第一節 區域整合經濟效果之理論文獻回顧 18 第二節 區域整合與多邊貿易談判關係之文獻回顧 21 第三節 實證文獻回顧 23 第四章 實證模型與基期資料分析 29 第一節 GTAP實證模型 29 第二節 FTAP實證模型 37 第三節 基期資料分析 41 第五章 情境設計與模擬結果分析 65 第一節 情境設計 65 第二節 東協加三自由貿易區之模擬結果分析 68 第三節 杜哈回合談判之模擬結果分析 76 第四節 東協加三自由貿易區+杜哈回合談判之模擬結果分析 85 第五節 模擬結果綜合討論 94 第六章 結論 96 參考文獻 98 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094351012 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 東協加三 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 杜哈回合談判 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 服務業 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | ASEAN+3 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Doha Round | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | service industry | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | FTAP | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | FDI | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 全球貿易自由化對台灣經濟之影響：以杜哈回合談判與東協加三自由貿易區為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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