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題名 具可靠度考量之全球運籌管理完整模式之探討
An Extended Reliability Model for Global Logistic Complete Systems under Uncertain Environment
作者 李亞暉
Lee ,Ya Hui
貢獻者 林我聰
Lin, Woo Tsong
李亞暉
Lee ,Ya Hui
關鍵詞 全球運籌
數量模式
可靠度
正向運籌
逆向運籌
Global Logistics
Mathematic Model
Reliability
Forward Logistics
Reverse Logistics
日期 2002
上傳時間 14-九月-2009 09:10:28 (UTC+8)
摘要 當企業面對資源與競爭全球化之市場發展趨勢，如何有效地運用多樣化且散佈的全球資源，做最有效的佈局，來因應日益激烈的市場競爭與挑戰，全球運籌管理愈行重要。但隨著企業經營的全球化，面對的風險與不確定性也逐漸增加，所以企業在做全球運籌管理時不確定因素應納入考量。
     許多文獻對全球運籌管理模式作了不同角度的問題探討，其中Vidal and Goetschalckx從過去的文獻中將全球運籌模式加以比較，得到三點過去模式不足的部分：(1)不確定因素都未考慮，(2)BOM的限制，(3)國際化的因素如匯率及稅都未考慮。遂即於其研究中對不確定因素如需求變化及供應商可靠度等因素的改變與最小總成本對全球運籌管理系統的影響進行分析。
     吳釜蒼(2002)以Vidal的架構，增加對於貨物自原物料採購至成品完成間的正向物流過程中，所可能經過的成員如供應商、工廠、倉庫、運輸管道進均加入可靠度考量來進行分析探討。本研究延伸其做法，除正向物流外，並擴展到商品或物料退貨、維修及資源回收的逆向物流過程中，可能經過的成員均加入可靠度的考量；並且針對兩種操作情境加以分析(1)特定成本之下求最大可靠度，(2)特定可靠度之上求最小總成本。其次，利用Fault Tree Analysis方法，配合績效評核項目，對可靠度加以量化分析，使其更符合實際狀況。
     最後以範例資料來分析驗證此數量模式，並提出一方法論提供決策者在進行全球佈局規劃時，能以本研究提供的決策程序，找出影響全球運籌可靠度的關鍵因子，並可對合作夥伴可靠度進行分析，改善彼此關係或對其之取捨上能有一較客觀的參考依據，使其對總成本之影響能降至最低。
Since the late 80s, due to the tensive pressures from globalization, customer demands, uncertainties, IT innovation, as well as the shorter product life cycle, businesses were struggling in how to quick response customer desires, in an effort to retain their niches. As a consequence, Global Logistic (GL), in turn, becomes the sharp weapon in this regard.
     Literature studied GL from various perspectives. Among these studies, Vidal & Goetschalckx compared models in previous studies, and came up with three major challenges in this area：(1) uncertainty was not taken into account; .(2) restrictions of the BOM structure are not clearly dealt with; and (3) key financial factors of internationalization, such as the exchange rate and taxes, were not modeled. Hence, in order to deal with such problems, Vidal & Goetschalckx carried on the analysis on the effects toward key factors of GL and total cost minimization by modeling the factor of suppliers’ reliability in their study.
     However, in Vidal & Goetschalckx‘s study, there was no further concerns of uncertainties on other players in the logistic system. Fu-Cang Wu takes uncertainties into account on the players of forward logistic system. As a consequence, this research aims to extend Vidal & Goetschalckx’s modus. In the mathematic model, this study adds the settings of reliabilities on players either in the forward logistics or in the reverse logistics. Besides, two operation modes are provided in the model：(1) seeking minimum cost on a target of system reliability; and (2) seeking maximum system reliability on a target of cost. Then, this research makes use of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for in depth analysis on reliability patterns.
     Finally, a methodology is established, which provides decision makers a reference basis, whenever he or she needs to place a global logistics system. Via the use of this prototype, it is believed to have a good mechanism for finding out the key influence factors of the reliability, enhancing buyer-seller relationships, and ensuring the goal of total cost minimization
參考文獻 中文部分：
1.王立志，1999，系統化運籌與全球運籌管理，滄海書局。
2.吳釜蒼，2002，「在不確定性情況下具有可靠度考量之全球運籌管理模式之探討」，政大資管所論文。
3.李乾銘，2002，可靠度技術的執行與策略，中衛發展中心。
4.張瓊文，2002，「企業建立競爭優勢的全方位策略-全球運籌管理(SCM)」，eBusiness Executive Report， 2002-6月：39~44頁。
5.梁定澎，1997，『資訊管理研究方法總論』，中華民國資訊管理學報，資訊管理實證研究方法研討會特刊，第四卷.第一期：1~7頁。
6.陳麗玉，2000，「全球化全球運籌管理績效評估與探討」，政大資管所論文。
7.黃貝玲，2002，「全球運籌管理之概念解析與發展趨勢」，eBusiness Executive Report， 2002-6月：8~19頁。
8.黃禮詳，2001，「發展一評估全球運籌可靠度績效之決策支援方法」，中央工管所論文。
9.鈴木順二郎等著，先鋒可靠度研究小組譯，2001，FMEA, FTA實施法(修正版)，先鋒企業管理發展中心。
10.黎漢林，2001，全球運籌管理與決策，儒林圖書公司。
11.戴久永，1990，「可靠度導論」，三民書局。
英文部分：
1.Advisor Media, “Cost Savings in Returns Management”, Advisor Zones, 2002
2.Aikens, C.H., “Facility location models for distribution planning,” European Journal of Operation Research(22) 1985, pp:263-279
3.American Production and Inventory Control Society, 1998, http://www.apics.org/
4.AMR, “AMR Research 2001” and http://lapide.ASCET.com, 2001
5.Arntzen, B.C., Brown, G.G., Harrison, T.P., Trafton, L.L., “Global Supply Chain Management at Digital Equipment Corporation,” Interface, 25(1), January-February 1995, pp:69-93
6.Beamon, B.M., “Supply chain design and analysis: Models and methods,” International Journal of production economics(55) 1998, pp:281-294
7.Bowersox, Donald J., Closs, David J., Logistical Management-The Integrated Supply Chain Process, McGraw-Hill, 1996
8.Cooper, M.C., Lambert, D.M., Pagh, J.D., “Supply Chain Management More Than a New Name for Logistics”, The Internal Journal of Logistics Management (Volume 8, no. 1) 1997, pp:1-14
9.Davis T., “Effective Global Logistic Management,” Slone Management Review, 1993, pp: 35-46
10.Dornier, P. P., Ricardo, E., Michel, F., Panos, K., “Global Operation & Logistics,” John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998
11.Flaherty T.M., “Global Operations Management,” McGraw-Hill, New York, 1996
12.Fleischmann, M., Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M., Dekker, R., Van der Laan, E., Van Nunen, J.A.E.E., Van Wassenhove, L.N., “Quantitative models for reverse logistics: A review,” European Journal of Operational Research, 2001
13.Kemp, T., “Next E−Retail Step: Returns Analysis”, InternetWeek (May) 2001, pp: 11
14.Kokkinaki, A. I., Dekker, R., van Nunen, J., Pappis, C., “Integrating a Web−based System with Business Processes in Closed Loop Supply Chains”, Econometric Institute Report Series(EI2001−31), 2001, pp. 1−30
15.Lee, H.L., Padmanabhan, V., S. Wang, “The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains”, Sloan Management Review (spring) 1997
16.Lourenço, H. R., “Global Logistic Management: An opportunity for Metaheuristics”, 2002
17.Pittiglio Rabin Todd & McGrath(PRTM), 2003, http:// www.prtm.com
18.Roberts, H. R., Vesley, W. E., Haast, D. F., Goldberg, F. F., “Fault Tree Handbook”, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,1981
19.Rogers, Dale S., Tibben-Lembke, Ronald S., “Going Backwards：Reverse Logistics Trends and Practices”, Reverse Logistics Executive Council, 1998
20.Rosenfield, Donald B., “Global and variable cost manufacturing systems,” European Journal of Operational Research, 1996
21.Sarkis, J., Darnall, N., Nehman, G., Priest, J., “The role of Global Logistic Management within the industrial ecosystem”, IEEE International Symposium on Electronics and the Environment 1995, pp: 229- 234.
22.Supply Chain Council, 2001, http://www.supply-chain.org
23.Thierry, Martijn et al., “Strategic Issues in Product Recovery Management,” California Management Review(37, no. 2)1995, pp:114-135
24.Towill, D.R, Naim, M.M., Wikner, J. “Industrial dynamics simulation models in the design of supply chains,” International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management(22) 1992, pp:3-13
25.Vidal, Carlos J., Goetschalckx, M., “Strategic Production-Distribution Models: A Critical Review with Emphasis on Global Supply Chain Models,” European Journal of Operational Research 1997, pp: 1-18
26.Vidal, Carlos J., “Modeling the effect of uncertainties on global logistics systems,” Journal of Business Logistics, 2000
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
90356027
91
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090356027
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林我聰zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Woo Tsongen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 李亞暉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Lee ,Ya Huien_US
dc.creator (作者) 李亞暉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lee ,Ya Huien_US
dc.date (日期) 2002en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-九月-2009 09:10:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-九月-2009 09:10:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-九月-2009 09:10:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0090356027en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31058-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 90356027zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 當企業面對資源與競爭全球化之市場發展趨勢，如何有效地運用多樣化且散佈的全球資源，做最有效的佈局，來因應日益激烈的市場競爭與挑戰，全球運籌管理愈行重要。但隨著企業經營的全球化，面對的風險與不確定性也逐漸增加，所以企業在做全球運籌管理時不確定因素應納入考量。
     許多文獻對全球運籌管理模式作了不同角度的問題探討，其中Vidal and Goetschalckx從過去的文獻中將全球運籌模式加以比較，得到三點過去模式不足的部分：(1)不確定因素都未考慮，(2)BOM的限制，(3)國際化的因素如匯率及稅都未考慮。遂即於其研究中對不確定因素如需求變化及供應商可靠度等因素的改變與最小總成本對全球運籌管理系統的影響進行分析。
     吳釜蒼(2002)以Vidal的架構，增加對於貨物自原物料採購至成品完成間的正向物流過程中，所可能經過的成員如供應商、工廠、倉庫、運輸管道進均加入可靠度考量來進行分析探討。本研究延伸其做法，除正向物流外，並擴展到商品或物料退貨、維修及資源回收的逆向物流過程中，可能經過的成員均加入可靠度的考量；並且針對兩種操作情境加以分析(1)特定成本之下求最大可靠度，(2)特定可靠度之上求最小總成本。其次，利用Fault Tree Analysis方法，配合績效評核項目，對可靠度加以量化分析，使其更符合實際狀況。
     最後以範例資料來分析驗證此數量模式，並提出一方法論提供決策者在進行全球佈局規劃時，能以本研究提供的決策程序，找出影響全球運籌可靠度的關鍵因子，並可對合作夥伴可靠度進行分析，改善彼此關係或對其之取捨上能有一較客觀的參考依據，使其對總成本之影響能降至最低。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since the late 80s, due to the tensive pressures from globalization, customer demands, uncertainties, IT innovation, as well as the shorter product life cycle, businesses were struggling in how to quick response customer desires, in an effort to retain their niches. As a consequence, Global Logistic (GL), in turn, becomes the sharp weapon in this regard.
     Literature studied GL from various perspectives. Among these studies, Vidal & Goetschalckx compared models in previous studies, and came up with three major challenges in this area：(1) uncertainty was not taken into account; .(2) restrictions of the BOM structure are not clearly dealt with; and (3) key financial factors of internationalization, such as the exchange rate and taxes, were not modeled. Hence, in order to deal with such problems, Vidal & Goetschalckx carried on the analysis on the effects toward key factors of GL and total cost minimization by modeling the factor of suppliers’ reliability in their study.
     However, in Vidal & Goetschalckx‘s study, there was no further concerns of uncertainties on other players in the logistic system. Fu-Cang Wu takes uncertainties into account on the players of forward logistic system. As a consequence, this research aims to extend Vidal & Goetschalckx’s modus. In the mathematic model, this study adds the settings of reliabilities on players either in the forward logistics or in the reverse logistics. Besides, two operation modes are provided in the model：(1) seeking minimum cost on a target of system reliability; and (2) seeking maximum system reliability on a target of cost. Then, this research makes use of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for in depth analysis on reliability patterns.
     Finally, a methodology is established, which provides decision makers a reference basis, whenever he or she needs to place a global logistics system. Via the use of this prototype, it is believed to have a good mechanism for finding out the key influence factors of the reliability, enhancing buyer-seller relationships, and ensuring the goal of total cost minimization		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘 要 VI
     Abstract VII
     1 第一章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究背景 1
     1.2 研究動機 3
     1.3 研究目的 5
     1.4 研究步驟與流程 7
     1.5 研究方法 10
     1.5.1 研究方法之基本類型 10
     1.5.2 本研究研究方法 12
     1.6 論文架構 13
     2 第二章 文獻探討 14
     2.1 全球運籌管理 14
     2.1.1 全球運籌管理與運作 14
     2.1.2 全球運籌之逆向運籌管理 18
     2.1.2.1 逆向運籌(Reverse Logistics)的定義 18
     2.1.2.2 退貨管理與逆向運籌 19
     2.1.2.3 逆向運籌的策略考量 20
     2.1.3 全球運籌管理面對的問題與挑戰 24
     2.1.4 全球運籌管理績效評估 26
     2.2 全球運籌管理模式之探討 28
     2.2.1 管理系統之設計流程 28
     2.2.2 現有管理模式之探討 31
     2.3 全球運籌管理之可靠度分析 37
     2.3.1 可靠度定義與介紹 37
     2.3.1.1 可靠度的定義 37
     2.3.1.2 可靠度與績效及成本 38
     2.3.1.3 全球運籌的可靠度定義 39
     2.3.2 可靠度預測與分析方法 39
     3 第三章 模式之建構 42
     3.1 數量模式架構與內容 42
     3.1.1 模式架構與內容 42
     3.1.2 基本假設 45
     3.1.3 符號說明 47
     3.1.3.1 代數與集合 47
     3.1.3.2 模式參數 48
     3.1.3.3 決策變數 49
     3.1.4 數量模式 50
     3.1.4.1 在特定可靠度之上，求取最小總成本 50
     3.2 可靠度分析模式架構與內容 56
     3.2.1 模式架構與內容 56
     3.2.1.1 SCOR的績效衡量基礎 57
     3.2.1.2 運籌管理績效指標 58
     3.2.2 Fault Tree Analysis圖 61
     3.3 全球運籌管理完整模式分析之方法論 66
     4 第四章 模式計算與分析 68
     4.1 模式計算 68
     4.1.1 參數設定 68
     4.1.2 計算結果與分析(可靠度值為給定情況下) 72
     4.1.3 計算結果與分析(可靠度值以FTA估算情況下) 77
     5 第五章 結論與建議 82
     5.1 研究結論 82
     5.2 研究貢獻 83
     5.3 研究限制 84
     5.4 後續研究之建議 84
     參考文獻 85
     圖目錄
     圖 1 1 研究步驟示意圖 9
     圖 1 2 資訊管理研究方法 11
     圖 1 3 不同研究方法的定位 11
     圖 1 4 本研究論文架構圖 13
     圖 2 1供應鏈的基礎管理流程 15
     圖 2 2 供應鏈作業參考模式 16
     圖 2 3 供應鏈中的逆向運籌流 20
     圖 2 4 全球運籌系統的設計流程 30
     圖 2 5 失效率特性曲線 38
     圖 3 1 本研究之模式架構 43
     圖 3 2 模式中BOM之假設 46
     圖 3 3 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖一) 61
     圖 3 4 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖二) 62
     圖 3 5 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖二.1) 62
     圖 3 6 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖二.2) 63
     圖 3 7 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖三) 63
     圖 3 8 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖三.1) 64
     圖 3 9 全球運籌管理可靠度分析(FTA圖三.2) 64
     圖 3 10 本研究數量模式之方法論 67
     圖 4 1 最小總成本成長趨勢圖 73
     圖 4 2 最大可靠度成長趨勢圖 76
     圖 4 3 最小總成本成長趨勢圖(以FTA推算可靠度) 81
     
     表目錄
     表 2 1 逆向運籌的策略角色 21
     表 2 2 逆向運籌管理關鍵元素 21
     表 2 3 全球運籌管理模式中採用之定量績效評估指標 27
     表 2 4 全球運籌管理模式的比較 34
     表 2 5 逆向運籌重要文獻作者彙整表 35
     表 2 6 回收網絡模組特性表 36
     表 2 7 故障樹常用符號 40
     表 3 1 模式代數與集合表 47
     表 3 2 模式參數表 48
     表 3 3 模式決策變數表 49
     表 3 4 SCOR供應鏈績效衡量基礎 57
     表 4 1 供應商相關參數預設值 69
     表 4 2 工廠相關參數預設值 69
     表 4 3 倉儲相關參數預設值 69
     表 4 4 運輸模式相關參數預設值(工廠、倉儲) 69
     表 4 5 運輸模式相關參數預設值(倉儲、顧客) 70
     表 4 6 運輸模式相關參數預設值(顧客、回收中心) 70
     表 4 7 運輸模式相關參數預設值(回收中心供應商、工廠及廢棄處理)70
     表 4 8 回收中心相關參數預設值 70
     表 4 9 各管道可靠度值 71
     表 4 10 物料清單 71
     表 4 11 特定可靠度之上，最小總成本解決方案表 72
     表 4 12 成本激增發生時之可靠度值表 74
     表 4 13 特定可負擔金額之下，最大可靠度解決方案表 75
     表 4 14 可靠度衡量計算表(以供應商S1提供原物料r1為例) 77
     表 4 15 以FTA法計算出各成員之可靠度值表 78
     表 4 16 各管道以FTA方式計算所得可靠度值表 79
     表 4 17 特定可靠度之上(以FTA推算)，最小總成本解決方案表 80		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090356027en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 全球運籌zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 數量模式zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 可靠度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 正向運籌zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 逆向運籌zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Global Logisticsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mathematic Modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Reliabilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forward Logisticsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Reverse Logisticsen_US
dc.title (題名) 具可靠度考量之全球運籌管理完整模式之探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An Extended Reliability Model for Global Logistic Complete Systems under Uncertain Environmenten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分：zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部分：zh_TW
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