| dc.contributor.advisor | 許振明 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 朱琇妍 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | CHU SHIOU YEN | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 朱琇妍 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | CHU SHIOU YEN | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2002 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 14-九月-2009 13:38:36 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 14-九月-2009 13:38:36 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 14-九月-2009 13:38:36 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0090255024 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32311 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 財政研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 90255024 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 91 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | St.Louis model 於1970年由Andersen與Carlson提出，該模型由八條方程式構成。其中四條估計式分別為：總支出方程式(Andersen-Jordan equation)、物價方程式、長期利率方程式、及失業方程式；其他四條為定義式。該模型以一簡單縮減式(reduced-form)估計財政政策與貨幣政策對名目產出的影響，透過係數的比較、估計係數t值的大小、以及落後期結構的差異，發現貨幣政策較財政政策有較大、較快、較易預測的效果。在原始的St. Louis model中，並未考慮共整合(cointegration) 與誤差調整模型(error-correction model)的概念，變數間若能通過共整合檢定則隱含存在一長期均衡關係。過去St. Louis model採用backward-looking的方式，以前期物價變動來估計本期的物價成長率；而貨幣政策變數僅以準備貨幣、M2成長率直接對產出估計，並未考慮貨幣政策回饋法則。在財政政策變數的選擇上，本文嘗試以不同潛在產出估計法計算充分就業下的政府支出；貨幣政策變數方面，仍選擇準備貨幣作為政策工具，並以貨幣數量回饋法則的方式內生化於模型中。 原始的St. Louis model以最小平方法(ordinary least square，OLS)對個別方程式估計，為避免對單一方程式估計而忽略其他變數間的交互影響，本文將三條估計式視為一整個系統(system)，對模型作完全資訊最大概似法(full information maximum likelihood, FIML)聯立估計，藉此比較單一方程式與模型聯立估計的結果，以判定模型是否產生誤置。總體經濟計量模型除了說明總體經濟現象外，尚能透過模擬分析得出各種政策效果。本文在估計出實證結果後，將配合Gauss-Seidel方法逐步收斂求解，比較開放性經濟下財政政策與貨幣政策的相對有效性。 無論是在共整合分析或是完全資訊最大概似估計法下，利用台灣資料估計皆顯示貨幣政策與經濟活動關係密切，貨幣政策確實較財政政策在穩定經濟過程中扮演重要角色，結果均支持St. Louis model的結論；而經由Gauss-Seidel收斂法求解發現，靜態模擬較動態模擬準確。主要是因為靜態模擬是以前期的實際值代入，故預測誤差較小；而聯立模型的模擬誤差大於單一方程式的模擬誤差是因前者包括聯立估計時產生的結構誤差，以及單一方程式本身的個別誤差。除了物價方程式的Theil係數偏高外，經濟成長率與準備貨幣成長率的趨勢皆能準確被預測。 本研究同時驗證了Mundell- Flemming之命題，在國際資本不完全移動的浮動匯率制度下，貨幣政策較財政政策有效影響國民所得。由於本文容許中央銀行在外匯市場干預匯率，因此是在管理式浮動匯率制度下考慮政策有效性；且依台灣現況，國際資本並未全部管制，亦未完全開放自由移動，因此財政政策對國民所得仍有正面的影響效果。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄： 第壹章 緒論…………………………………………………………..7-14 1.1 前言………………………………………………………….7-11 1.2 研究動機及目的……………………………………………11-14 第貳章 文獻回顧與探討…………………………………………….15-23 第參章 基本模型的建立…………………………………………….24-27 第肆章 研究方法…………………………………………………….28-38 4.1 充分就業下的政府支出……………………………………..28-31 4.2 通貨膨脹目標值與預期通貨膨脹率………………………..31-32 4.3 估計方法……………………………………………………..32-37 4.4 模擬分析……………………………………………………..37-38 第伍章 實證結果…………………………………………………… 39-67 5.1 資料處理過程………………………………………………..39-49 5.2 聯立模型估計………………………………………………..50-61 5.3 模擬分析……………………………………………………..62-66 第陸章 結論與檢討………………………………………………….67-69 附錄……………………………………………………………………...70-73 參考文獻…...……………………………………………………………75-79 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090255024 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 財政政策 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 貨幣數量回饋法則 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 貨幣政策 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | St. Louis model | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | McCallum`s rule | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Andersen-Jordan equation | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 財政政策與貨幣政策相對有效性－McCallum`s rule與前瞻性預期在St. Louis model的應用 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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