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題名 退休基金投資對證券市場發展之影響
The Effect of Pension Fund Investment on Securities Markets
作者 毛治文
貢獻者 沈中華
毛治文
關鍵詞 退休基金
證券市場
穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型
穩健迴歸
pension funds
securities markets
robust panel threshold model
robust regression
日期 2006
上傳時間 14-九月-2009 13:42:28 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文探討退休金發展程度與投資策略對股票市場發展的影響,並同時採用「縱橫門檻迴歸模型」(panel threshold model, PTM)及結合縱橫門檻模型與穩健迴歸的「穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型」(robust panel threshold model, ROPTM)來研究此一議題。我們用退休基金投資證券市場的金額佔總額的比例為分類標準,將樣本分為高投資比例與低投資比例兩部分。對部分OECD國家及台灣的panel data分析後之結果顯示:在股票市場方面,若基金採高投資比例之投資策略,則退休金發展或投資股市比例越高,越能促進股市發展;採低投資比例策略的基金,對股市發展的影響並不顯著。
This paper analyzes the impact of pension fund investment on securities markets using a panel threshold model (PTM) and a robust panel threshold model (ROPTM) which combines a panel threshold model with a robust regression model. We use panel data for some OECD countries and Taiwan to test the validity of our propositions. The data is divided into low and high investment regions based on the value of securities as a percentage of total financial assets of the pension fund. Our results are the following. In the high stock investment region, pension funds have a positive impact on stock markets. Whereas, in the low stock investment region, the positive impact seems to disappear.
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沈中華、陳建福,2004,「B 股開放政策對中國大陸股票市場效率性有影響嗎?不對稱門檻共整合模型的應用」,財務金融學刊,第11卷,第3期,89-119頁。
沈中華、郭照榮、陳曉蓉,2001,「銀行淨邊際利息收入的決定因子—Panel Threshold Model」,中國財務學刊,第9卷,第1期,47-83頁。
余雪明、何憲章,1995,「軍公教退撫基金如何有效管理運用之研究」,考試院銓敘部計畫。
邱顯比,1995,「我國退休基金委託經營方式之研究」,退撫基金專題研討會論文集。
陳曉蓉,2004,「發展中的台灣銀行業:結構的變遷與競爭挑戰」,中山大學財務管理研究所博士論文。
黃介良,1997,「退休基金的投資策略及其資產配置」,公務人員退撫基金季刊,第5期,2-28頁。
黃介良與吳明儒,1993,「人口與財務規劃—多層次老人經濟架構」,社會安全問題之探討,王國羽主編,嘉義:中正大學社會福利研究所。
張士傑與陳絳珠,2001,「企業退休基金之多期最適提撥與資產配置」,管理評論,第20卷,第3期, 21-51頁。
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
89255501
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892555011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 沈中華zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) 毛治文zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 毛治文zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-九月-2009 13:42:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-九月-2009 13:42:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-九月-2009 13:42:28 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0892555011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32343-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 89255501zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文探討退休金發展程度與投資策略對股票市場發展的影響,並同時採用「縱橫門檻迴歸模型」(panel threshold model, PTM)及結合縱橫門檻模型與穩健迴歸的「穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型」(robust panel threshold model, ROPTM)來研究此一議題。我們用退休基金投資證券市場的金額佔總額的比例為分類標準,將樣本分為高投資比例與低投資比例兩部分。對部分OECD國家及台灣的panel data分析後之結果顯示:在股票市場方面,若基金採高投資比例之投資策略,則退休金發展或投資股市比例越高,越能促進股市發展;採低投資比例策略的基金,對股市發展的影響並不顯著。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyzes the impact of pension fund investment on securities markets using a panel threshold model (PTM) and a robust panel threshold model (ROPTM) which combines a panel threshold model with a robust regression model. We use panel data for some OECD countries and Taiwan to test the validity of our propositions. The data is divided into low and high investment regions based on the value of securities as a percentage of total financial assets of the pension fund. Our results are the following. In the high stock investment region, pension funds have a positive impact on stock markets. Whereas, in the low stock investment region, the positive impact seems to disappear.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第 1 章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究動機與目的 1
     1.2 研究方法 5
     1.3 研究限制 7
     1.4 研究架構 8
     第 2 章 文獻探討 10
     2.1 退休基金投資策略 10
     2.2 退休基金對證券市場之影響 13
     第 3 章 模型設定 16
     第 4 章 計量方法 20
     4.1 穩健迴歸 20
     4.1.1 M-estimators與Least Absolute Deviation 25
     4.1.2 Least Trimmed Squares 27
     4.2 縱橫門檻迴歸模型 28
     4.3 穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型 32
     第 5 章 資料分析 36
     第 6 章 實証結果 44
     6.1 縱橫門檻迴歸模型之實証結果 45
     6.2 穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型之實証結果 55
     第 7 章 結論與建議 80
     參考文獻 83
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892555011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休基金zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 證券市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 穩健縱橫門檻迴歸模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 穩健迴歸zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) pension fundsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) securities marketsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) robust panel threshold modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) robust regressionen_US
dc.title (題名) 退休基金投資對證券市場發展之影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Effect of Pension Fund Investment on Securities Marketsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華、林公韻,2005,「違約機率預測與極端值」,財務金融學刊,第13卷,第3期,1-32頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華、陳建福,2004,「B 股開放政策對中國大陸股票市場效率性有影響嗎?不對稱門檻共整合模型的應用」,財務金融學刊,第11卷,第3期,89-119頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 沈中華、郭照榮、陳曉蓉,2001,「銀行淨邊際利息收入的決定因子—Panel Threshold Model」,中國財務學刊,第9卷,第1期,47-83頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 余雪明、何憲章,1995,「軍公教退撫基金如何有效管理運用之研究」,考試院銓敘部計畫。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 邱顯比,1995,「我國退休基金委託經營方式之研究」,退撫基金專題研討會論文集。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳曉蓉,2004,「發展中的台灣銀行業:結構的變遷與競爭挑戰」,中山大學財務管理研究所博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃介良,1997,「退休基金的投資策略及其資產配置」,公務人員退撫基金季刊,第5期,2-28頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃介良與吳明儒,1993,「人口與財務規劃—多層次老人經濟架構」,社會安全問題之探討,王國羽主編,嘉義:中正大學社會福利研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張士傑與陳絳珠,2001,「企業退休基金之多期最適提撥與資產配置」,管理評論,第20卷,第3期, 21-51頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 繆震宇,2002,「確定給付制退休基金的最適資產配置」,管理學報,第20卷,第1期,177-199頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Arnott, R. D., 1985, “The Pension Sponsor View of Asset Allocation,” Financial Analysts Journal, 17-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barro, R. J., 1974, “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth,” Journal of Political Economy, 82, 1095-1117.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barro, R. J. and G. M. MacDonald, 1979, “Social Security and Consumer Spending in an International Cross Section,” Journal of Public Economics, 11, 275-289.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F., 1980, “The Tax Consequences of Long Run Pension Policy,” Financial Analysis Journal, 25-31.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bodie, Z., 1990, “Pensions as Retirement Insurance,” Journal of Economic Literature, 28(1), 28-49.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Browne, S., 1999, “Beating a Motiving Target: Optimal Portfolio Strategies for Outperforming a Stochastic Benchmark,” Finance and Stochastics, 3, 275-294.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Boyd, J. H., R. Levine, and B. D. Smith, 2001, “The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance,” Journal of Monetary Economics, April, 47(2), 221-248.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cairns, A. J. G., 2000, “Some Notes on The Dynamics and Optimal Control of Stochastic Pension Fund Models in Continuous Time,” ASTIN Bulletin, 30, 19-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Catalan, M., G. Impavido, and A. R. Musalem, 2000, “Contractual Savings or Stock Market Development: Which Leads?” Journal of Applied Social Science Studies, 120(3), 445-87.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C., C. H. Tsai, C. J. Tien and C. Y. Tu, 2002, “Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: Model Incorporation Asset-liability Matching Criterion,” Journal of Actuarial Practice, 10, 131-155.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C., L. Y. Tzeng and C. Y. Miao, 2003, “Pension Funding Incorporating Downside Risks,” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 32, 217-228.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C. and Y. F. Li, 2004, “Optimal Portfolio Decisions in Pension Fund Management,” Journal of Management, 279-290.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Connolly, R. A., 1989, “An Examination of the Robustness of the Weekend Effect,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24:2, 133-169.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cornell, B. and J. K. Dietrich, 1978, “Mean-Absolute-Deviation Versus Least-Squares Regression Estimation of Beta Coefficients,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 13, 123-131.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Davies, R. B., 1987, “Hypothesis Testing When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the alternative,” Biometrika, 74, 33-43.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Davis, E. P., 1995, Pension Funds-Retirement Income Security and Capital Markets-An International Perspective-Clarendon Press, Oxford.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Demirguc-Kunt, A., and R. Levine, 1996, “Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts,” World Bank Economic Review, 10, 291-321.zh_TW
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