| dc.contributor.advisor | 余清祥 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 朱伯長 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | Chu, Bo-Chang | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 朱伯長 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chu, Bo-Chang | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2005 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 17-九月-2009 18:46:44 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 17-九月-2009 18:46:44 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 17-九月-2009 18:46:44 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0093354021 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33906 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 統計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 93354021 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 94 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 台灣地區生育率逐年下降，從1985年起總生育率即低於替代水準2.1；近幾年更快速下降，2005年降至空前的1.12，僅有1960年的1/6。為瞭解台灣地區生育率的未來趨勢，本文研究婦女生育年齡、勞動參與率、教育程度及胎次生育率，與世界各國比較，以分析生育率的變化。我們發現近年台灣、日本及法國各年齡組對生育率的貢獻幾乎相同，但法國的總生育率卻有2的水準。比較台灣地區大專以上及高中以下教育程度的婦女，兩者的生育情況在早期是有所差別的，但近年兩者的生育行為非常接近；大學以上及高中以下的婦女生育率均同時降低，生育率的下降似乎和婦女教育程度關係不大。除了以年齡別的角度進行分析，本文也在胎次別生育率的研究上探討及驗證過去的模型與理論，提出模型以修正Feeney的胎次進級模型，從台灣地區資料的計算結果來比較，兩者相差不大，建議在資料允許的情況下可以使用我們提出的計算方法。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | The fertility rates in Taiwan decline rapidly. The total fertility rate has been lower than the replacement level 2.1 since 1985 and it reached to 1.12, the historical low in 2005, only 1/6 of which in 1960. In order to explore the fertility trend in Taiwan, several variables were used to compare with countries in the world, including women fertility rate by age groups, female labor force participation rate, fertility of women with different educational attainments and fertility rate by birth order. We found that Taiwan, Japan and France share a similar fertility pattern, unlike in the U.S., while the young female groups still have significant contribution on fertility.For the variable of highest education attained, the group of senior high school and below have higher fertility before 1970’s comparing to that of education with college and higher. However, the gap narrowed down in recent years. Also, for the fertility rates by birth order, we proposed a new model estimation for the parity progression model. We found that the results of proposed method are almost identical to those of the original method, but the computation is much easier. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………1第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………………………1第二節 研究架構………………………………………………………………3第二章 台、日、美、法的生育率比較………………………………………4第一節 台、日、美、法的年齡組生育率走勢………………………………4第二節 台、日、美、法的年齡組生育率比較………………………………7第三節 台、日、美、法的世代完成生育率…………………………………11第三章 台、日、美、法勞動參與率和生育率的關聯………………………14第一節 台、日、美、法的婦女勞動參與率…………………………………14第二節 台、日、美、法的年齡組勞動參與率走勢…………………………15第三節 台、日、美、法的年齡組勞動參與率與生育率的關聯……………17第四章 台灣地區教育程度與生育率的關聯…………………………………24第一節 婦女教育程度與生育率………………………………………………25第二節 不同教育程度婦女的年齡組生育率比較……………………………26第三節 不同教育程度婦女的第一胎生育率…………………………………29第五章 世界各國的生育率變化………………………………………………33第一節 亞洲國家………………………………………………………………33第二節 亞洲以外國家…………………………………………………………34第三節 平均國民生產毛額與生育率的關聯…………………………………37第四節 勞動參與率與生育率的關聯(OECD國家) …………………………39第六章 胎次別修正模型………………………………………………………41第一節 胎次別生育率…………………………………………………………41第二節 胎次進級率……………………………………………………………44第七章 結論與討論……………………………………………………………53第一節 結論……………………………………………………………………53第二節 討論……………………………………………………………………54參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………56附 錄……………………………………………………………………………58 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093354021 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 生育率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 教育程度 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 胎次別 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 胎次別生育率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 胎次進級率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Fertility Rate | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Fertility Rate by Birth Order | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Educational Level | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Parity Progression Ratio | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 台灣與世界各國生育率的比較 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | A Study of Fertility Comparison of Taiwan to Other Countries | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 中文部分 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 內政部統計資訊服務網，http://www.moi.gov.tw/stat/index.asp。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 內政部(1949 ~ 2004)，中華民國台閩地區人口統計，內政部編印。 | zh_TW |
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| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 行政院經濟建設委員會人力規劃處(2006)，中華民國臺灣民國95年至140年人口推計。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 教育部全球資訊網，http://www.edu.tw/index.htm。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 余清祥與藍銘偉(2003)，“台灣地區生育率模型之研究”, 人口學刊, vol. 27, 105-131。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃意萍與余清祥(2002)，“台灣地區生育率模式的推估研究”, 人口學刊, vol. 25, 145-171。 | zh_TW |
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| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 英文部分 | zh_TW |
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