學術產出-學位論文

題名 中長期動能策略之研究:以台灣股市為例
作者 邱俞華
Chiu ,Yu Hua
貢獻者 林基煌
邱俞華
Chiu ,Yu Hua
關鍵詞 動能策略
反應不足
行為財務學
影響報酬因子
前期表現
momentum
under-reaction
behavioral finance
prior return
日期 2006
上傳時間 17-九月-2009 19:17:48 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究根據行為財務學中反應不足的理論針對台灣上市股票進行動能策略的研究。首先根據台股1992到2005年之上市股票為樣本進行單純動能策略研究,發現台股具有中期及長期動能現象(長期在此定義為持有期三年),接著以Fama and French 三因子模型進行風險調整,結果發現動能策略具有顯著的可行性,其報酬不受三因子調整而損失。並再加入公司特徵變數,發現大規模公司具有較大之動能效果,且低帳面市值比公司也具較大之動能效果,而大型股具有較大的動能效果與一般認知的反應不足理論不符,而由後續之研究針對規模及帳面市值比做相關分析發現兩者間具有高度的負相關,因此大型股子樣本與低帳面市值比子樣本可能具高度的雷同,因此大型股的動能策略報酬較高,其實可能反應的是成長股所具有的反應不足現象。
接著根據單純動能表現結果,結合前期兩期表現為條件,組合成中長期動能策略之構想。結果發現,中長期動能策略在大型股與成長股此兩個子樣本集中有較高的可行性。由於中長期動能策略的基礎是建立在運用兩股單純動能策略的力量,因此單純動能策略的顯著性是中長期動能策略能否成功的重要關鍵,也因此由實證結果發現,在不同的子樣本集中,受到其單純動能策略顯著性強弱的影響,使得中長期動能策略的報酬顯著性受到影響,其中尤以低帳面市值比(成長股)之中長期動能策略動能效果最為顯著。
參考文獻 一、中文部分
1. 呂嘉倩,台灣動能策略之剖析,國立東華大學國際經濟研究所未出版碩士論文,民國93年。
2. 林美珍,股票價格過度反應的方向、幅度與密度,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國81年。
3. 林銘燦,股票市場價格動能與週轉率之研究,銘傳大學金融管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國90年。
4. 洪胤傑,台灣股票市場個股與產業動能投資策略之實證研究,國立政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民89年。
5. 黃偉信,橫斷面預期報酬、公司特徵變數與動能效果之研究,東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國91年。
6. 絲文銘,股票市場過度反應與風險變化關係之探討,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國83年。
7. 程淑美,台灣股票市場過度反應現象之實證研究,輔仁大學管理學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國87年。
8. 劉盈攸,產業對股市投資策略之影響(漲買跌賣及反向操作投資策略),國立中央大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國89年。
9. 游奕琪,台灣股市產業與價格動能策略關連性之實證研究,國立政治大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國89年。
10. 詹家昌,臺灣股市過度反應之實證研究,東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國80年。
11. 謝政能,台灣股票市場過度反應之研究,國立中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國80年。
12. 謝朝顯,追漲殺跌投資策略之實證研究-台灣股市效率性之再檢定,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國83年。
二、英文部分
1. Aggarwal, R. and Rivoli, P., 1989. “Seasonal and Day-of-the-Week effects in Four Emerging Stock Markets,” The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 541-50, November.
2. Banz, Rolf W., 1981, “The relationship between return and market value of common stocks, Journal of Economics,” 6, 103-126.
3. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983, “The relationship between earnings yield, market value,and return for NYSE common stocks: Further evidence,” Journal of Financial Economics, 12, 129-156.
4. Barberis, N., Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny, 1998, “A model of investor sentiment”, Journal of Financial Economics, 49, 307–343.
5. Barberis, N., and A. Shleifer, 2003, “Style investing,” Journal of Financial Economics, 68: 161-99.
6. Capaul, Rowley and Sharpe (1993), “Internal Value and Growth Stock Returns,” Financial Analysts Journal, v. 49, no. 1, pp.27-36.
7. Chan, Louis K., Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Josef Lakonishok, 1996, “Momentum strategies,” Journal of Finance, 51, 1681-1713.
8. Chan, K., A. Hameed, and W. Tong. (2000). “Profitability of Momentum Strategies in the International Equity Markets.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35, 153–172.
9. Chorpa, Navin, Josef Lakonishok, and Jay Ritter, 1992, “Measuring abnormal returns:Do stocks overreact?,” Journal of Finanical Economic, 31, 235-268.
10. Chordia, T., and L. Shivakumar, 2002, “Momentum, business cycle, and timevarying expected returns,” Journal of Finance 57: 985-1020.
11. Chou, P. H., H. Chung and K. C. J. Wei, 1999, “Identifying the sources of Contrarian profits for varying horizons: evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange,” working paper.
12. Conard, Jennifer s., G. Kaul, and M.Nimalendran, 1991, “Componets of short horizon individual security returns, Journal of Finance, 49, 1305-1329.
13. Conrad, J. and G. Kaul, 1998, “An anatomy of trading strategies,” Review of Financial Studies 11, pp. 489-510.
14. Cooper, M., R.C. Gutierrez Jr. and A. Hameed, 2004, “Market states and momentum,” Journal of Finance 59: 1345-65.
15. Daniel, Kent, and Sheridan Titman, 1999, “Market efficiency in an irrational world,” Financial Analysts Journal, November/December, 28-40.
16. Daniel, Kent, David Hirshleifer, and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998, “Investor psychology and security market under- and over-reactions,” Journal of Finance, 53, 1839-1886.
17. De Bondt, Werner F. M, and Richard H. Thaler, 1985, “Does the stock market overreact?,” Journal of Finance, 40, 793-808.
18. De Bondt, Werner F. M, and Richard H. Thaler, 1987, “Further evidence on investor over-reaction and stock market seasonality,” Journal of Finance, 42, 557-581.
19. Deaves, R. and Miu, P., 2005, “Refineing momentum strategies by conditioning on prior long-term returns: Canadian evidence,” Working Paper, McMaster University.
20. Fama, E. F. and J. D. MacBeth, 1973, “Risk, return, and equilibrium:Empirical tests,” Journal of Political Economy, 71, 607-636.
21. Fama, E. F. and K. R. French, 1988, “Permanent and temporary components of stock price,” Journal of Political Economy, 9, 6246-6279.
22. Fama, E. F. and K. R. French, 1993, “Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds, Journal of Financial Economics, 33, 3-56.
23. Fama, E. F. and K. R. French, 1992, “The cross-section of expected stock returns,” Journal of Finance, 47, 427-465.
24. Fama, E. F. and K. R. French, 1996, “Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies,” Journal of Finance, 51, 55-84.
25. Griffin, J. M., X. Ji and S. Martin, 2003, “Momentum investing and business cycle risk,” Journal of Finance 63: 2515-47.
26. Grinblatt, M., and T. J. Moskowitz, 2004, “Predicting stock price movements from past returns: The role of consistency and tax-loss selling,” Journal of Financial Economics 71: 541-79.
27. Grinblatt, M., and B. Han, 2005, “Prospect theory, mental accounting and momentum,” Journal of Financial Economics 78: 311-39.
28. Grundy, B.D. and J.S. Martin, 2001. “Understanding the nature of the risks and the source of the rewards to momentum investing,” Review of Financial Studies.
29. Grundy, K. and B. G. Malkiel, 1996, “Reports of beta’s death have been greatly exaggerated,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, pp. 36-44.
30. Heston, S. L., K. G. Rouwenhorst, and R. E. Wessels, 1999, “The role of beta and size in the cross-section of European stock returns,” European Financial Management, 5 pp. 9-27.
31. Haugen, R.A. and J. Lakonishok, 1988, “The incredible January effect: The Stock Market Unsolved Mystery,” Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin.
32. Haugen, R. and W. Baker, 1996, “Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns,” Journal of Financial Economics, 41, pp. 401-439.
33. Hong, Harrison, Terence Lim, and Jeremy C. Stein, 1999, “Bad news travels slowly:Size, analyst coverage and the profitability of momentum strategies,” Working paper, Stanford University.
34. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990, “Evidence of predictable behavior of security returns,” Journal of Finance, 45, 881-898.
35. Jegadeesh, N. and S. Titman, 1993, “Returns to buying winners and selling loser: Implications for stock market efficiency,” Journal of Finance, 48, 65-91.
36. Jegadeesh, N. and Sheridan Titman, 2001, “Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations”, Journal of Finance, April 2001.
37. Korajczyk, R., and R. Sadka, 2004, “Are momentum profits robust to trading costs?” Journal of Finance 59: 1039-82.
38. Lakonishok, J. and A. Shleifer, and R. W. Vishny., 1994, “Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk,” Journal of Finance, 49, 1541-1578.
39. Lee, Charles M. C., and Bhaskaran Swminathan, 2000, “Price momentum and trading volume,” Journal of Finance, 55, 2017-2069.
40. Lo, Andrew W., and A.Craig MacKinlay, 1988, “Stock, Price do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test,” Review of Financial Studies, 1, 41-66.
41. Miller, E., 1990, “Explaining the January small firm effect by the interaction of procedurally rational investors and seasonal traders,” Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, 29, no.3, pp 36-51.
42. Moskowitz, Tobias J., and Mark Grinblatt, 1999, “Do industries explain momentum?” Journal of Finance, 54, 1249-1290.
43. Moskowitz, Tobias J., and Mark Grinblatt, 1999, “The cross section of expected returns and its relation to past return: New Evidence,” Working paper, University of Chicago.
44. Rouwenhorst K. G., 1998, “International Momentum Strategies,” Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 267-284, 02.
45. Sharpe, W. F., 1964, “Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk,” Journal of Finance 19, pp. 425-442.
46. Tinic, S. M. and R. West. 1984. “Risk and return: January vs. the rest of year,” Journal of Financial Economics, 13(4):561-574.
47. Wang, K. Q., 2005, “Why does the CAPM fail to explain momentum?” Working paper.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
93357023
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093357023
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林基煌zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) 邱俞華zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Chiu ,Yu Huaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 邱俞華zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chiu ,Yu Huaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-九月-2009 19:17:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-九月-2009 19:17:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-九月-2009 19:17:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0093357023en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34058-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93357023zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究根據行為財務學中反應不足的理論針對台灣上市股票進行動能策略的研究。首先根據台股1992到2005年之上市股票為樣本進行單純動能策略研究,發現台股具有中期及長期動能現象(長期在此定義為持有期三年),接著以Fama and French 三因子模型進行風險調整,結果發現動能策略具有顯著的可行性,其報酬不受三因子調整而損失。並再加入公司特徵變數,發現大規模公司具有較大之動能效果,且低帳面市值比公司也具較大之動能效果,而大型股具有較大的動能效果與一般認知的反應不足理論不符,而由後續之研究針對規模及帳面市值比做相關分析發現兩者間具有高度的負相關,因此大型股子樣本與低帳面市值比子樣本可能具高度的雷同,因此大型股的動能策略報酬較高,其實可能反應的是成長股所具有的反應不足現象。
接著根據單純動能表現結果,結合前期兩期表現為條件,組合成中長期動能策略之構想。結果發現,中長期動能策略在大型股與成長股此兩個子樣本集中有較高的可行性。由於中長期動能策略的基礎是建立在運用兩股單純動能策略的力量,因此單純動能策略的顯著性是中長期動能策略能否成功的重要關鍵,也因此由實證結果發現,在不同的子樣本集中,受到其單純動能策略顯著性強弱的影響,使得中長期動能策略的報酬顯著性受到影響,其中尤以低帳面市值比(成長股)之中長期動能策略動能效果最為顯著。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 7
第一節 研究動機 7
第二節 研究目的 9
第三節 研究架構 10
第二章 文獻探討 12
第一節 反應不足與動能策略 12
第二節 過度反應與反向策略 19
第三節 影響股票報酬率之因素 26
第三章 研究方法 29
第一節 研究設計 29
第二節 風險因子調整模型 32
第三節 加入公司特徵變數之動能或反向策略之效果 34
第四節 依據前期兩期表現為條件之中長期動能策略投資組合 36
第四章 實證結果與分析 41
第一節 動能策略原始報酬分析 41
第二節 投資組合之績效原因分析 44
第三節 加入公司特徵變數之動能策略績效表現 45
第四節 中長期動能策略之績效表現 56
第五章 結論與建議 67
第一節 結論 68
第二節 建議 69
參考文獻 70
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093357023en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動能策略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 反應不足zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為財務學zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 影響報酬因子zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 前期表現zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) momentumen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) under-reactionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) behavioral financeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) prior returnen_US
dc.title (題名) 中長期動能策略之研究:以台灣股市為例zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 呂嘉倩,台灣動能策略之剖析,國立東華大學國際經濟研究所未出版碩士論文,民國93年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. 林美珍,股票價格過度反應的方向、幅度與密度,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國81年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. 林銘燦,股票市場價格動能與週轉率之研究,銘傳大學金融管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國90年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. 洪胤傑,台灣股票市場個股與產業動能投資策略之實證研究,國立政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民89年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. 黃偉信,橫斷面預期報酬、公司特徵變數與動能效果之研究,東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國91年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. 絲文銘,股票市場過度反應與風險變化關係之探討,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國83年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. 程淑美,台灣股票市場過度反應現象之實證研究,輔仁大學管理學研究所未出版碩士論文,民國87年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. 劉盈攸,產業對股市投資策略之影響(漲買跌賣及反向操作投資策略),國立中央大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國89年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. 游奕琪,台灣股市產業與價格動能策略關連性之實證研究,國立政治大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國89年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. 詹家昌,臺灣股市過度反應之實證研究,東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國80年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. 謝政能,台灣股票市場過度反應之研究,國立中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文,民國80年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. 謝朝顯,追漲殺跌投資策略之實證研究-台灣股市效率性之再檢定,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文,民國83年。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Aggarwal, R. and Rivoli, P., 1989. “Seasonal and Day-of-the-Week effects in Four Emerging Stock Markets,” The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 541-50, November.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Banz, Rolf W., 1981, “The relationship between return and market value of common stocks, Journal of Economics,” 6, 103-126.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983, “The relationship between earnings yield, market value,and return for NYSE common stocks: Further evidence,” Journal of Financial Economics, 12, 129-156.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Barberis, N., Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny, 1998, “A model of investor sentiment”, Journal of Financial Economics, 49, 307–343.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. Barberis, N., and A. Shleifer, 2003, “Style investing,” Journal of Financial Economics, 68: 161-99.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. Capaul, Rowley and Sharpe (1993), “Internal Value and Growth Stock Returns,” Financial Analysts Journal, v. 49, no. 1, pp.27-36.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Chan, Louis K., Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Josef Lakonishok, 1996, “Momentum strategies,” Journal of Finance, 51, 1681-1713.zh_TW
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