Publications-Theses

題名 台灣股市盤後交易造成意見差異對股價報酬之影響
作者 嚴佑慈
貢獻者 姜堯民
嚴佑慈
關鍵詞 盤後交易
意見差異
日期 2007
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 19:21:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 本篇論文主要探討台灣股市盤後交易的資訊性。所追蹤的資訊傳遞過程如下:以盤後交易為起點,進一步探討隔夜的意見差異因盤後交易所產生的影響,最後將盤後交易次日的股市收盤作為資訊傳遞的終點,以日股價報酬率測度盤後交易的資訊性表現。
實證係採盤後交易量作為盤後交易的替代變數,另外使用開盤買賣價差、開盤首筆成功交易所需秒數與法人買賣超股數作為意見差異的三個替代變數。分別將以上的替代變數與股價報酬率作出迴歸分析,以求了解兩兩間的關係以及每段過程的變化,最後將前後連貫,作成完整的分析。
實證結果發現,盤後交易使得隔夜意見差異增加、投資人意見差異會降低股價報酬、並且透過意見差異,盤後交易資訊使股價報酬減少。在實證分析時並考慮到控制變數:公司市值、市場成交量、盤後交易日個股報酬率、盤後交易日個股成交量、盤後交易日市場報酬率、內部人持股率、產業類型以及跨夜報酬率。由結果得知現行台灣盤後交易制度的限制:以固定價格交易,反而使盤後交易的資訊難於被一般投資人解讀。另外,意見差異在資訊傳遞的過程中扮演了重要的中介角色,在盤後交易的資訊影響到意見差異之後,盤後交易的資訊經過轉化,最後會對股價報酬產生影響。
This article mainly investigates the informativeness of after-hours trading in Taiwan’s stock market. The information-delivery process tracked is as follows: information abstracted from after-hours trading session, and then observe the divergence of opinion because of trading after hours, end up with measuring the change of the next normal trading day. We use stock price return as a dependent variable in regressions to examine the impacts.
In the empirical part, trading volume in after-hours session is the proxy of after-hours trading. The percentage opening spread, time of first trade, and flipping ratio are the three proxies of divergence of opinion. Then regression analysis is applied to examine the relationship between after-hours trading and divergence of opinion, also divergence of opinion and stock price return. At the end, all separate parts are put together in order to form a whole picture.
The empirical results suggest that after-hours trading widens the divergence of opinion, and a wide divergence of opinion decreases the stock price return. Through the specific channel, divergence of opinion, the informativeness of after-hours trading is led to affect stock price return. The analysis also considered the following control variables: company market value, market trading volume, stock price return, stock trading volume, market return, insider ownership, industry type and overnight return.
Therefore, restrictions in Taiwan’s after-hours market, such as the fixed-price trading, make it more difficult for the public to read information from after-hours session. Moreover, divergence of opinion is served as an important intermediary in the information-delivery process. When the divergence of opinion is affected by after-hours trading the previous day, the information is also transformed and pushed forward to affect the stock price return.
參考文獻 1. 陳立國(1992),「台灣股市價量關係之研究」,碩士論文,國立台灣大學財務金融學系。
2. 楊清芬(2001),「資訊交易機率之測度及其決定因素探討」,碩士論文,國立中山大學。
3. 張元晨(2002),「新加坡台股指數期貨盤後交易訊息外溢效果之研究」,行政院國家科學委員會補助專題研究計畫。
4. 羅嘉輝(2002),「股票投資行為之探討-先前投資結果、得失兌現狀態與未來預期之影響」,碩士論文,元智大學。
5. 詹場、胡星陽,2002,「台灣證券市場日內資料揭露特性及正確使用方法」,台灣財務金融學會學術研討會。
6. 陳其美、韓千山(2003),「資訊不對稱下集合競價市場實施盤後定價交易之均衡分析」,經濟論文,中央研究院經濟研究所,31:3,459-495。
7. 吳柏勳(2005),「盤後定價交易之資訊內涵分析」,碩士論文,南台科技大學。
8. 洪榮華、陳香如、王玉珍,(2005),「公司內部治理機制與公司績效之關係—股權結構與董事會特性的觀點」,輔仁管理評論,第十二卷第三期,23-40。
9. 蔡怡純(2005),「委託單驅動市場之投單策略與價格形成」,博士論文,國立中山大學。
10. Admati, A., and P. Pfleiderer, “A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability,” The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1988, pg.3-40.
11. Aggarwal, R. and P. Rivoli,(1990),”Fads in the Initial Public Offering Market?” Financial Management 19, 45-57.
12. Aggarwal, R. and P. Conroy,(2000),“Price Discovery in Initial Public Offerings and the Role of the Lead Underwriter,” Journal of Finance 55, 2903-2922.
13. Bagehot, W., “The Only Game in Town,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1971, pg.12-14, 22.
14. Banz, Rolf. W., “The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks”, Journal of Financial Economics, March, 1981, 3-18.
15. Brock, William A. and Kleidon, Allan W., “Periodic Market Closure and Trading Volume: A Model of Intraday Bids and Asks,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 16, (3-4) 1992, pg.451-489.
16. Barclay, Michael J. and Terrence Hendershott, (2003),” Price Discovery and Trading After Hours,” The Review of Financial Studies, 16(4), 1041-1073
17. Barclay, Michael J. and Terrence Hendershott, (2005), “A Comparison of Trading and Non-Trading Mechanisms for Price Discovery,” Working paper, Simon School of Business, University of Rochester and Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.
18. Bessembinder, Hendrik and Paul J. Sequin,” Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 5, Dec. 1992, pg. 2015-2034.
19. Chiang, Reymond, P.C. Venkatesh, ” Insider Holdings and Perceptions of Information Asymmetry: A Note”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No.4, Sep. 1988, pp.1041-1048.
20. Copeland, T. E., "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, Vol.31, 1976, pp.1149-1168.
21. Copeland, T.E. and D. Galai, 1983, “Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread,” Journal of Finance 38, 1457-1469.
22. Couch, Carl J.,” Dimensions of Association in Collective Behavior Episodes”, Sociometry, Vol. 33, No.4, Dec. 1970, pg. 457-471.
23. Derrien, F. and K.L.Womack, “Auctions vs. Bookbuilding and the Control of Underpricing in Hot IPO Markets”, The Review of Financial Studies, 16, 2003, 31-61.
24. Foster, F. Douglas and S. Viswanathan, “Variation in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 48, No.1, March 1993, pg.187-211.
25. Houge, Todd, Tim Loughran, Gerry Suchanek and Xuemin Yan,(2001),”Divergence of Opinion, Uncertainty, and the Quality of Initial Public Offerings,” Financial Management, 5-23.
26. Krigman, L., W.H. Shaw, and K.L. Womack,”The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping,” Journal of Finance 54, 1999, 1015-1044.
27. Karpoff, J. M., “A theory of trading volume”, Journal of Finance 41, 1986, 1069-1087.
28. Miller, E.M., 1977,”Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion,” Journal of Finance 32, 1151-1168.
29. Schenone, C., “The Effect of Banking Relationships on the Firm’s IPO’s Underpricing”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 59, No.6, S., 2004, pg. 2903-2958.
30. Ulibarri, Carlos A.(1998),”Is After-Hours Trading Informative?” The Journal of Futures Markets, 18(5), 563-579.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
94357030
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094357030
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 姜堯民zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 嚴佑慈zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 嚴佑慈zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 19:21:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 19:21:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 19:21:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094357030en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34073-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94357030zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本篇論文主要探討台灣股市盤後交易的資訊性。所追蹤的資訊傳遞過程如下:以盤後交易為起點,進一步探討隔夜的意見差異因盤後交易所產生的影響,最後將盤後交易次日的股市收盤作為資訊傳遞的終點,以日股價報酬率測度盤後交易的資訊性表現。
實證係採盤後交易量作為盤後交易的替代變數,另外使用開盤買賣價差、開盤首筆成功交易所需秒數與法人買賣超股數作為意見差異的三個替代變數。分別將以上的替代變數與股價報酬率作出迴歸分析,以求了解兩兩間的關係以及每段過程的變化,最後將前後連貫,作成完整的分析。
實證結果發現,盤後交易使得隔夜意見差異增加、投資人意見差異會降低股價報酬、並且透過意見差異,盤後交易資訊使股價報酬減少。在實證分析時並考慮到控制變數:公司市值、市場成交量、盤後交易日個股報酬率、盤後交易日個股成交量、盤後交易日市場報酬率、內部人持股率、產業類型以及跨夜報酬率。由結果得知現行台灣盤後交易制度的限制:以固定價格交易,反而使盤後交易的資訊難於被一般投資人解讀。另外,意見差異在資訊傳遞的過程中扮演了重要的中介角色,在盤後交易的資訊影響到意見差異之後,盤後交易的資訊經過轉化,最後會對股價報酬產生影響。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This article mainly investigates the informativeness of after-hours trading in Taiwan’s stock market. The information-delivery process tracked is as follows: information abstracted from after-hours trading session, and then observe the divergence of opinion because of trading after hours, end up with measuring the change of the next normal trading day. We use stock price return as a dependent variable in regressions to examine the impacts.
In the empirical part, trading volume in after-hours session is the proxy of after-hours trading. The percentage opening spread, time of first trade, and flipping ratio are the three proxies of divergence of opinion. Then regression analysis is applied to examine the relationship between after-hours trading and divergence of opinion, also divergence of opinion and stock price return. At the end, all separate parts are put together in order to form a whole picture.
The empirical results suggest that after-hours trading widens the divergence of opinion, and a wide divergence of opinion decreases the stock price return. Through the specific channel, divergence of opinion, the informativeness of after-hours trading is led to affect stock price return. The analysis also considered the following control variables: company market value, market trading volume, stock price return, stock trading volume, market return, insider ownership, industry type and overnight return.
Therefore, restrictions in Taiwan’s after-hours market, such as the fixed-price trading, make it more difficult for the public to read information from after-hours session. Moreover, divergence of opinion is served as an important intermediary in the information-delivery process. When the divergence of opinion is affected by after-hours trading the previous day, the information is also transformed and pushed forward to affect the stock price return.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章、緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究限制 2
第四節 研究架構與內容簡介 3
第貳章、制度介紹與文獻回顧 5
第一節 制度介紹 5
(一)台灣股市盤後交易制度 5
(二)各國證交制度 6
美國盤後交易制度 6
亞洲主要證券市場的場外交易制度 8
第二節 文獻回顧 9
(一) 資訊交易相關文獻探討 9
(二) 盤後交易相關文獻探討 11
國內文獻 11
國外文獻 12
第三節 意見差異相關文獻探討 14
第四節 小結 16
第參章、研究方法 17
第一節 資料來源 17
第二節 資料處理 17
第三節 變數操作型定義 18
(一)盤後交易量變數 18
(二)意見差異變數 18
(三)其他控制變數 20
第四節 研究設計與假設建立 23
第肆章、實證結果與分析 29
第一節 敘述統計 29
(一)盤後交易相關統計 29
(二)各變數敘述統計 32
第二節 迴歸分析結果 34
(一)盤後交易與意見差異 34
(二)意見差異與股價報酬 37
(三)盤後交易與股價報酬 39
(四)意見差異預測股價報酬 41
(四).1意見差異之股價報酬預測能力 42
第伍章、結論與建議 45
第一節 結論 45
(一)盤後交易與意見差異 45
(二)意見差異與股價報酬 46
(三)盤後交易與股價報酬 46
(四)盤後交易造成意見差異與股價報酬 47
(五)小結 49
第二節 建議 50
(一)對政策制定者之建議 50
(二)對後續研究者之建議 50
參考文獻 51
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094357030en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盤後交易zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 意見差異zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 台灣股市盤後交易造成意見差異對股價報酬之影響zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 陳立國(1992),「台灣股市價量關係之研究」,碩士論文,國立台灣大學財務金融學系。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. 楊清芬(2001),「資訊交易機率之測度及其決定因素探討」,碩士論文,國立中山大學。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. 張元晨(2002),「新加坡台股指數期貨盤後交易訊息外溢效果之研究」,行政院國家科學委員會補助專題研究計畫。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. 羅嘉輝(2002),「股票投資行為之探討-先前投資結果、得失兌現狀態與未來預期之影響」,碩士論文,元智大學。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. 詹場、胡星陽,2002,「台灣證券市場日內資料揭露特性及正確使用方法」,台灣財務金融學會學術研討會。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. 陳其美、韓千山(2003),「資訊不對稱下集合競價市場實施盤後定價交易之均衡分析」,經濟論文,中央研究院經濟研究所,31:3,459-495。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. 吳柏勳(2005),「盤後定價交易之資訊內涵分析」,碩士論文,南台科技大學。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. 洪榮華、陳香如、王玉珍,(2005),「公司內部治理機制與公司績效之關係—股權結構與董事會特性的觀點」,輔仁管理評論,第十二卷第三期,23-40。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. 蔡怡純(2005),「委託單驅動市場之投單策略與價格形成」,博士論文,國立中山大學。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Admati, A., and P. Pfleiderer, “A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability,” The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1988, pg.3-40.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Aggarwal, R. and P. Rivoli,(1990),”Fads in the Initial Public Offering Market?” Financial Management 19, 45-57.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. Aggarwal, R. and P. Conroy,(2000),“Price Discovery in Initial Public Offerings and the Role of the Lead Underwriter,” Journal of Finance 55, 2903-2922.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. Bagehot, W., “The Only Game in Town,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1971, pg.12-14, 22.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. Banz, Rolf. W., “The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks”, Journal of Financial Economics, March, 1981, 3-18.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15. Brock, William A. and Kleidon, Allan W., “Periodic Market Closure and Trading Volume: A Model of Intraday Bids and Asks,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 16, (3-4) 1992, pg.451-489.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16. Barclay, Michael J. and Terrence Hendershott, (2003),” Price Discovery and Trading After Hours,” The Review of Financial Studies, 16(4), 1041-1073zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. Barclay, Michael J. and Terrence Hendershott, (2005), “A Comparison of Trading and Non-Trading Mechanisms for Price Discovery,” Working paper, Simon School of Business, University of Rochester and Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. Bessembinder, Hendrik and Paul J. Sequin,” Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 5, Dec. 1992, pg. 2015-2034.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Chiang, Reymond, P.C. Venkatesh, ” Insider Holdings and Perceptions of Information Asymmetry: A Note”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 43, No.4, Sep. 1988, pp.1041-1048.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20. Copeland, T. E., "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, Vol.31, 1976, pp.1149-1168.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21. Copeland, T.E. and D. Galai, 1983, “Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread,” Journal of Finance 38, 1457-1469.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 22. Couch, Carl J.,” Dimensions of Association in Collective Behavior Episodes”, Sociometry, Vol. 33, No.4, Dec. 1970, pg. 457-471.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 23. Derrien, F. and K.L.Womack, “Auctions vs. Bookbuilding and the Control of Underpricing in Hot IPO Markets”, The Review of Financial Studies, 16, 2003, 31-61.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 24. Foster, F. Douglas and S. Viswanathan, “Variation in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models,” The Journal of Finance, Vol. 48, No.1, March 1993, pg.187-211.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 25. Houge, Todd, Tim Loughran, Gerry Suchanek and Xuemin Yan,(2001),”Divergence of Opinion, Uncertainty, and the Quality of Initial Public Offerings,” Financial Management, 5-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 26. Krigman, L., W.H. Shaw, and K.L. Womack,”The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping,” Journal of Finance 54, 1999, 1015-1044.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 27. Karpoff, J. M., “A theory of trading volume”, Journal of Finance 41, 1986, 1069-1087.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 28. Miller, E.M., 1977,”Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion,” Journal of Finance 32, 1151-1168.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 29. Schenone, C., “The Effect of Banking Relationships on the Firm’s IPO’s Underpricing”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 59, No.6, S., 2004, pg. 2903-2958.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 30. Ulibarri, Carlos A.(1998),”Is After-Hours Trading Informative?” The Journal of Futures Markets, 18(5), 563-579.zh_TW