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題名 China`s Militarization of Space: Motivations and Implications for U.S-Chinese Relations
China`s Militarization of Space: Motivations and Implications for U.S-Chinese Relations
作者 易思安
貢獻者 李國雄<br>鄧中堅
Lee, Kuo hsiung<br>Teng, Chung chian
易思安
關鍵詞 Military space
ASAT
China
United States
Offensive realism
日期 2007
上傳時間 18-九月-2009 11:39:32 (UTC+8)
摘要 China’s successful test of a direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon last year marks a highly significant development in the strategic use of outer space and represents a milestone achievement in China’s quest to develop asymmetrical anti-access and area denial strategies to counter the ability of the United States military to operate effectively in the Western Pacific. However, the reckless manner in which the test was conducted, producing as it did a historic amount of dangerous space debris, and the unresponsive and duplicitous manner in which the Beijing government dealt with (or failed to deal with) the diplomatic fallout produced by the test have led scholars to speculate that the test was the result of one of the following: 1) a desire to challenge the U.S. dominance in space, 2) an effort to force the issue of space weapons arms control to the diplomatic forefront, or 3) a diplomatic blunder resulting from bureaucratic “stovepiping” and miscommunication. However, these three viewpoints, while all providing valuable insights into Chinese decision-making, fail to fully develop the topic and leave key questions unanswered. The purpose of this study is to link the questions raised by the aforementioned typologies and achieve a deeper level of analysis vis-à-vis the application of the theoretical prism of offensive realism. Ultimately this study finds that the ASAT test represents a top-level decision made by the Chinese leadership, and was informed by a number of strategic and domestic-political factors, none of which bode particularly well for the future of U.S.-Chinese relations.
China’s successful test of a direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon last year marks a highly significant development in the strategic use of outer space and represents a milestone achievement in China’s quest to develop asymmetrical anti-access and area denial strategies to counter the ability of the United States military to operate effectively in the Western Pacific. However, the reckless manner in which the test was conducted, producing as it did a historic amount of dangerous space debris, and the unresponsive and duplicitous manner in which the Beijing government dealt with (or failed to deal with) the diplomatic fallout produced by the test have led scholars to speculate that the test was the result of one of the following: 1) a desire to challenge the U.S. dominance in space, 2) an effort to force the issue of space weapons arms control to the diplomatic forefront, or 3) a diplomatic blunder resulting from bureaucratic “stovepiping” and miscommunication. However, these three viewpoints, while all providing valuable insights into Chinese decision-making, fail to fully develop the topic and leave key questions unanswered. The purpose of this study is to link the questions raised by the aforementioned typologies and achieve a deeper level of analysis vis-à-vis the application of the theoretical prism of offensive realism. Ultimately this study finds that the ASAT test represents a top-level decision made by the Chinese leadership, and was informed by a number of strategic and domestic-political factors, none of which bode particularly well for the future of U.S.-Chinese relations.
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Medeiros, Evan S. Chasing the Dragon: Assessing China’s System of Export Controls for WMD-Related Goods and Technologies. Santa Monica: RAND, 2005.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
中國大陸研究英語碩士學程(IMCS)
95925039
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095925039
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李國雄<br>鄧中堅zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Kuo hsiung<br>Teng, Chung chianen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 易思安zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 易思安zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-九月-2009 11:39:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-九月-2009 11:39:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-九月-2009 11:39:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0095925039en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34911-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 中國大陸研究英語碩士學程(IMCS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95925039zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) China’s successful test of a direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon last year marks a highly significant development in the strategic use of outer space and represents a milestone achievement in China’s quest to develop asymmetrical anti-access and area denial strategies to counter the ability of the United States military to operate effectively in the Western Pacific. However, the reckless manner in which the test was conducted, producing as it did a historic amount of dangerous space debris, and the unresponsive and duplicitous manner in which the Beijing government dealt with (or failed to deal with) the diplomatic fallout produced by the test have led scholars to speculate that the test was the result of one of the following: 1) a desire to challenge the U.S. dominance in space, 2) an effort to force the issue of space weapons arms control to the diplomatic forefront, or 3) a diplomatic blunder resulting from bureaucratic “stovepiping” and miscommunication. However, these three viewpoints, while all providing valuable insights into Chinese decision-making, fail to fully develop the topic and leave key questions unanswered. The purpose of this study is to link the questions raised by the aforementioned typologies and achieve a deeper level of analysis vis-à-vis the application of the theoretical prism of offensive realism. Ultimately this study finds that the ASAT test represents a top-level decision made by the Chinese leadership, and was informed by a number of strategic and domestic-political factors, none of which bode particularly well for the future of U.S.-Chinese relations.zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) China’s successful test of a direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon last year marks a highly significant development in the strategic use of outer space and represents a milestone achievement in China’s quest to develop asymmetrical anti-access and area denial strategies to counter the ability of the United States military to operate effectively in the Western Pacific. However, the reckless manner in which the test was conducted, producing as it did a historic amount of dangerous space debris, and the unresponsive and duplicitous manner in which the Beijing government dealt with (or failed to deal with) the diplomatic fallout produced by the test have led scholars to speculate that the test was the result of one of the following: 1) a desire to challenge the U.S. dominance in space, 2) an effort to force the issue of space weapons arms control to the diplomatic forefront, or 3) a diplomatic blunder resulting from bureaucratic “stovepiping” and miscommunication. However, these three viewpoints, while all providing valuable insights into Chinese decision-making, fail to fully develop the topic and leave key questions unanswered. The purpose of this study is to link the questions raised by the aforementioned typologies and achieve a deeper level of analysis vis-à-vis the application of the theoretical prism of offensive realism. Ultimately this study finds that the ASAT test represents a top-level decision made by the Chinese leadership, and was informed by a number of strategic and domestic-political factors, none of which bode particularly well for the future of U.S.-Chinese relations.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction………………………………………………1
1.1 Motivation and Purpose…………………………………1
1.2 Theoretical Framework………………………………………5
1.3 Thesis Outline…………………………………………………21

2. Differing Viewpoints: Debating China’s ASAT Test…24
2.1 Three Interpretations of China’s ASAT Test…………24
2.2 ASAT Test and Space Debris……………………………………26
2.3 ASAT as Challenge…………………………………………………30
2.4 ASAT as Negotiation Tactic……………………………………31
2.5 ASAT as Mistake……………………………………………………38

3. China’s Space Developments: Reality Versus Fiction…42
3.1 Terminology……………………………………………………………42
3.2 China’s Military Space History………………………………45
3.3 China’s Space Duplicity…………………………………………48
3.4 China’s Counter-Space Weapons Development………………52

4. Chinese Strategic and Domestic Motivations………………57
4.1 Strategic Motivations: Anti-access and Area Denial…57
4.2 Strategic Motivations: Balance of Power…………………59
4.3 Domestic Motivation: PLA…………………………………………63
4.4 Domestic Motivations: Personal and Bureaucratic…65

5. U.S. Response, Toward a “Cold War” in Space……70
5.1 U.S. Space Assets: Unparalleled Advantage…………………70
5.2 U.S. Space Assets: Unparalleled Vulnerability……………73
5.3 U.S. Response: Space Build-up……………………………………75
5.4 U.S. Space Budget and Acquisition Plans……………………77
5.5 Continuing Vulnerability……………………………………………81
6. Implications for U.S.-Chinese Relations……………………83
6.1 Offensive Realism Speaks: Troubling Future………………83
6.2 Implications: Chinese ASAT Threat a Reality………………85
6.3 Offensive Realist Policy Prediction…………………………88

Conclusion………………………………………………………………90

Bibliography……………………………………………………………92		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095925039en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Military spaceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) ASATen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) United Statesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Offensive realismen_US
dc.title (題名) China`s Militarization of Space: Motivations and Implications for U.S-Chinese Relationszh_TW
dc.title (題名) China`s Militarization of Space: Motivations and Implications for U.S-Chinese Relationsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “2007 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.” United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission. 110th Congress, 1st Session. October 29, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2008-2012 National Security Proposal: Quadrennial National Security Outlook Report. Taipei: Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Relations, 2008, 71-85.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anderson, Guy, ed. “Annual Defence Report.” Jane’s Defence Weekly, December 19, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Armstrong, Dale. “Space Preservation or Space Destruction?” The Space Review, March 12, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Baker, John and Kevin Pollpeter. “A Future for U.S.-China Space Cooperation?” Space News, December 13, 2004.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ball, Desmond. “Assessing China’s ASAT Program.” Austral Special Report, June 14, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bao Shixiu. “Deterrence Revisited: Outer Space.” China Security, (Winter 2007): 2-11.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Blagov, Sergei. “Arms, Energy and Commerce in Sino-Russian Relations.” China Brief, August 8, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brzezinski, Zbigniew. “Clash of the Titans: Make Money, Not War.” Foreign Policy (January/February 2005): 46-47.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Burns, Robert. “Shot at Satellite May come Wednesday Night.” The Associated Press, February 19, 2008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bush, Richard C., and Michael E. O’Hanlon. A War Like No Other: The Truth about China’s Challenge to America. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Butler, Amy. “AF-Led Milspace Budget Stays Flat.” Aviation Week & Space Technology, February 5, 2008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang Xianqi and Sui Junqin. “Active Exploration and Peaceful Use of Outer Space.” China Security, (Summer 2006): 16-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chase, Michael S. “China’s Assessment of the War in Iraq: America’s ‘Deepest Quagmire’ and the Implications for Chinese National Security.” China Brief, September 19, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “China’s National Defense in 2000.” Information Office of the State Council, October 2000.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “China’s Offensive Space Capability.” Strategic Forecasting, January 19, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “China pursuing aggressive spying program: US commission,” Washington (AFP). November 15, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chun, Clayton K.S. Defending Space: U.S. Anti-Satellite Warfare and Space Weaponry. Oxford: Osprey Publishing, 2006.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cliff, Roger, et al. Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States. Santa Monica: RAND, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cliff, Roger, Evan Medeiros, and Keith Crane. “Keeping the Pacific: An American Repsonse to China’s Growing Military Might.” RAND Review (Spring 2007): 18-23.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cordesman, Anthony H. and Martin Kleiber. Chinese Military Modernization: Force Development and Strategic Capabilities. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies Press, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Coumatos, Michael J. et al. Space Wars: The First Six Hours of World War III. New York: Forge, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Covault, Craig. “China’s Asat Test Will Intensify U.S.-Chinese Faceoff in Space.” Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 21, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Davis, Mathew. “Dominating the Final Frontier.” BBC News, October 19, 2006.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) DeSelding, Peter B. “Debis from FY-1C Destruction Poses Long-Term Concern.” Space News, January 29, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dudney, Robert S. “Moseley’s Warning.” Air Force Magazine (June 2007).zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Elegant, Simon and Mark Thompson. “Why China’s Missile Test Is Troubling.” Time Magazine, January 19, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gertz, Bill. “U.S. satellites dodge Chinese missile debris.” The Washington Times, January 11, 2008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) _____. “The Last Flight of Wang Wei.” Air Force Magazine (July 2001): 51-53.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gill, Bates. Rising Star: China’s New Security Diplomacy. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2007.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gill, Bates and Martin Kleiber. “China’s Space Odyssey: What the Antisatellite Test Reveals About Decision-Making in Beijing.” Foreign Affairs (May/June 2007).zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hagt, Eric. “China’s ASAT Test: Strategic Response.” China Security (Winter 2007): 31-51.zh_TW
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