| dc.contributor.advisor | 陳奉瑤 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Chen, Fong Yao | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 賴靖雯 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 賴靖雯 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2008 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 19-九月-2009 13:15:44 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 19-九月-2009 13:15:44 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 19-九月-2009 13:15:44 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0096257003 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37358 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 地政研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 96257003 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 97 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 估價平滑相關研究大多採取Quan and Quigley（1991）提出的理性行為解釋估價師的部分調整行為。然而財務行為學認為行為人通常具有非理性的行為，因此本研究以保守性心理偏誤解釋部分調整行為，探討非理性心理對於估價師之影響。為了捕捉估價師個體的行為資訊，本研究以台灣不動產投資信託的重估價結果作為研究資料，檢視估價師對市場新資訊和過去估值的處理行為。本研究首先應用部分調整模型進行實證分析，結果發現台灣估價師確實具有部分調整行為，相對較低估市場價值資訊的權重，而此類保守性偏誤即為總體估價平滑效果的展現。此外進一步以Tobit Model進行市場價值資訊權重的影響因素分析，結果發現市場資訊的權重會受到心理效果而改變，當估價方法價值差異率越大時，估價師會降低市場資訊的權重，展現了對模糊事件的趨避傾向。捷思法可以幫助估價師提升效率，但過度依賴捷思法亦有可能引發錯誤和偏差；本研究發現模糊趨避效果顯示估價師更重視市場資訊的可信度，似較符合估價證據之要求，故非理性心理偏誤對估價師言非全為負面影響。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Previous appraisal smoothing studies were based on the appraiser rational behavior assumptions which developed by Quan and Quigley (1991) and found that appraisers do insufficiently react to market fluctuate. However, this paper starts with behavioral finance theory to investigate the partial adjustment behavior of Taiwan appraisers, using the reappraisals of Taiwan Real Estate Investment Trust (T-REITs) to show each appraiser’s behavioral intention at disaggregate level which could be diversified away at aggregate level. This study tests the partial adjustment model to observe the weights of new market information and previous estimates of the same property reappraisal. The results show that Taiwan appraisers more rely on the previous estimates, namely the conservatism bias, which will induce the appraisal smoothing at aggregate level. Further, the Tobit Model is employed to test the influence factors of appraisers’ weight on new market information, and the results show weights on new market information will be affected by appraisers’ heuristics. There is a negative effect to weights on new market information which stands for the ambiguity aversion of appraisers. It shows appraiser do concern about the reliability of market evidence which is much accord with the appraisal normative model. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究方法與名詞定義 4第三節 研究範圍與限制 6第四節 研究內容與流程 8第二章 文獻回顧 11第一節 估價行為學與估價平滑 11第二節 部分調整模型 14第三節 部分調整影響因素 17第三章 研究設計 21第一節 研究假說之建立 21第二節 研究範圍之界定 24第三節 市場價值資訊之推估 30第四章 實證分析 35第一節 部分調整模型之實證分析 35第二節 市場資訊權重影響因素之實證分析 39第五章 結論與建議 47第一節 結論 47第二節 政策運用與後續研究建議 50參考文獻 52 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 207142 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 163262 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 226402 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 284567 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 319452 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 414459 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 511174 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 439561 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 273885 bytes | - |
| dc.format.extent | 291463 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096257003 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 部分調整 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 行為財務學 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 模糊趨避 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 台灣不動產投資信託 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | appraiser partial adjustment | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | behavioral finance | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | ambiguity aversion | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | T-REITs | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 估價師部分調整行為之研究－以不動產證券化重估價為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Appraiser partial adjustment behavior: evidence from T-REITs reappraisals | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 1. 王士鳴，2006，「不動產估價師信心判斷行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文，台北市。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 2. 李易璇，2005，「不動產估價人員估值行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文，台北市。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 3. 汪駿旭，2005，「不動產估價人員受客戶影響之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文，台北市。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 4. 林英彥，2007，『不動產估價』，台北：文笙書局。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 5. 施能仁，施純楨，施若竹，2004，『計量經濟』，台北：高立圖書。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 6. 徐詩怡，2007，「不動產估價師與地價人員估值決定行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文，台北市。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 7. 張能政，2004，「不動產估價行為研究—行為理論之應用」，國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文，台北市。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 8. 梁仁旭，陳奉瑤，2006，『不動產估價』，台北：陳奉瑤。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 9. 郭敏華，2008，『行為財務學—當財務學遇上心理學』，台北：智勝文化。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 10. 游適銘，2007，「不動產證券化發行金額與估價方法估值關聯探討」，論文發表於中華民國住宅學會第十六屆年會學術研討會論文集，中華民國住宅學會：台北，頁61-75。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 11. Accetta, G.J., 1998, “Supporting capitalization rates”, The Appraisal Journal, 66(4): 371-374. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 12. Babbie, E.R.著，陳文俊譯，2006，『社會科學研究方法』，台北：雙葉書廊。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 13. Baum, A., N. Crosby, P. Gallimore, P. McAllister, A. Gray, 2000, The Influence Of Valuers And Valuations On The Workings Of The Commercial Property Investment Market . UK: Reading and Nottingham Trent Universities. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 14. Brown, G. R., and G. A. Matysiak, 1998, “Valuation Smoothing without Temporal Aggregation”, Journal of Property Research, 15(2):89-103. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 15. Clapp, J.M., 1990, “A new test for equitable real estate tax assessment”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3(3):233 – 249. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 16. Clayton, J., D. Geltner, and S. W. Hamilton, 2001, “Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuation: Evidence from Individual Appraisals”, Real Estate Economics, 29(3) 337-360. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 17. Diaz, J., 1990, "How Appraisers Do Their Work: A Test of the Appraisal Process and the Development of a Descriptive Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, 5(1): 1-16. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 18. Diaz, J., 1997, “An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimate on Appraisal Judgment”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 13(1):57-66. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 19. Diaz, J., 2002, Behavioural Research in Appraisal and Some Perspectives on Implications for Practice, RICS Foundation Research Review Series, London: RICS Foundation. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 20. Diaz, J. and J. A. Hansz, 1997, “How Valuers Use the Value Opinions of Others”, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 15(3):256-260. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 21. Diaz, J. and M. Wolverton, 1998, “A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis”, Real Estate Economics, 26(2):349-358. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 22. Edwards, W., 1962, “Conservatism in human information processing”, Edited by Kleimutz, B., Representation of Human Judgement, New York, 17-52. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 23. Fox, C.R. and A. Tversky, 1995, “Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance”, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3):585-603. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 24. Fisher, J., M. Miles, and R. Webb, 1999, “How Reliable are Commercial Property Appraisals? Another Look”, Real Estate Finance, 16(3):9-15. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 25. Gallimore P., 2002, “Real Estate Valuation Theory: The components of appraisal accuracy”, US, Edited by K. Wang and M. Wolverton, Appraisal Institute and American Real Estate Society. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 26. Geltner, D., 1989a, “Bias in Appraisal-Based Returns”, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA Journal), 17(3): 338–352. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 27. Geltner, D., 1989b, “Estimating Real Estate’s Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns”, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 17(4): 463–81. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 28. Geltner, D., 1991, “Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 4:327-345. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 29. Geltner, D., R.A. Graff and M. Young, 1994,"Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database" Journal of Real Estate Research, 9(4):403-420. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 30. Geltner, D., 1998, “Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story—A Comment”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=131459, Working Paper, Department of Finance, University of Cincinnati. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 31. Graff, R. and M.S. Young, 1999, “The Magnitude of Random Appraisal Error in Commercial Real Estate Valuation”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 17(2):33-54. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 32. Graff, R. and J. Webb, 1997, “Agency costs and inefficiency in commercial real estate”, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 3(1):19-37. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 33. Hansz, J.A. and J. Diaz, 2001, “Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment”, Real Estate Economics, 29(4): 553-565. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 34. Hansz, J. A., 2004, “Prior Transaction Price Induced Smoothing: Testing and Calibrating the Quan-Quigley Model at the Disaggregate Level”, Journal of Property Research, 21(4):321-336. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 35. Heath, C. and A. Tversky, 1991, “Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4(1):5-28. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 36. Hirshleifer, D., 2001, “Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing.”, The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1533-1597. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 37. Ibbotson, R. and L. B. Siegel, 1984, “Real Estate Return: a Comparison with Other Investment”, AREUEA, 12:219-242. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 38. Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, 1973, “On the Psychology of Prediction”, Psychological Review, 80(4):237-251. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 39. Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, 1979, “Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk”, Econometrica, 47(2):263-291. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 40. Knight, F., 1921, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit., Houghton Mifflin: New York. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 41. Lai, T.Y., and K. Wang, 1998, “Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of Story”, Real Estate Economics, 26(3): 511-535. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 42. Lizieri, C., And C. Ward, 2001, “Commercial Real Estate Return Distributions: A Review of Literature and Empirical Evidence”, Working Paper, University of Reading. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 43. Levy, D. and E. Schuck, 1999, “The Influence of Clients on Valuation”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 17(4):380-400. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 44. Mcallister, P., A. Baum, N. Crosby, P. Gallimore, and A. Gray, 2003, “Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence”, Journal of Property Research, 20(3):261-280. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 45. Miles, M., D Guilkey, B Webb, and K Hunter, 1991,”An empirical evaluation of the reliability of commercial appraisals”, NCREIF Research Paper, Chicago: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 46. Pompian, M.M., 2006, Behavioral finance and wealth management: how to build optimal portfolios that account for investor biases, John Wiley & Sons Inc: New York. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 47. Quan, D. C., and J. M. Quigley, 1991, “Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 4: 127-146. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 48. Ramsett, D., 1999, “Yield capitalization for market analysis”, The Appraisal Journal, 67(4):398-403 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 49. Ross, S., and R. Zisler, 1987, “Managing Real Estate Portfolio, Part 3: A Close look at Equity Real Estate Risk”, Goldman Sachs Real Estate Research. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 50. Yiu, C. Y., B. S. Tang, Y. H. Chiang, and L. H. Choy, 2006, “Alternative Theories of Appraisal Bias”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, 14(3):321-344. | zh_TW |
