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題名 Modified Logistic Model for Mortality Forecasting and the Application of Mortality-Linked Securities
作者 Hwang,Ya-wen ;Huang,Hong-Chih
黃雅文;黃泓智
貢獻者 風管系
關鍵詞 mortality model; logistic model; longevity bond; collateral debt obligation
日期 2009-09
上傳時間 6-十月-2010 10:39:08 (UTC+8)
摘要 This article proposes the modified logistic mortality model as a potential moderation of current models. The fitting and forecasting effects of the proposed modified logistic mortality model are efficient for the mortality data of the United States, Japan, England and Wales, and the modified logistic model provides the best forecasting for persons older than age 30 years under MAPE criterion. In addition, this study considers how to use longevity bonds to manage longevity risk. We apply the proposed modified logistic mortality model to price the bond, and to improve the attractiveness of that bond, we design it to encompass more than one tranche, according to the concept of collateral debt obligation. This design offers investors more choices pertaining to their different risk preferences.
關聯 Asia Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 6(1), Article 4
資料類型 article
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/2153-3792.1134
dc.contributor 風管系-
dc.creator (作者) Hwang,Ya-wen ;Huang,Hong-Chihen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃雅文;黃泓智-
dc.date (日期) 2009-09en_US
dc.date.accessioned 6-十月-2010 10:39:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 6-十月-2010 10:39:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 6-十月-2010 10:39:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/45688-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This article proposes the modified logistic mortality model as a potential moderation of current models. The fitting and forecasting effects of the proposed modified logistic mortality model are efficient for the mortality data of the United States, Japan, England and Wales, and the modified logistic model provides the best forecasting for persons older than age 30 years under MAPE criterion. In addition, this study considers how to use longevity bonds to manage longevity risk. We apply the proposed modified logistic mortality model to price the bond, and to improve the attractiveness of that bond, we design it to encompass more than one tranche, according to the concept of collateral debt obligation. This design offers investors more choices pertaining to their different risk preferences.-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) Asia Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 6(1), Article 4en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) mortality model; logistic model; longevity bond; collateral debt obligation-
dc.title (題名) Modified Logistic Model for Mortality Forecasting and the Application of Mortality-Linked Securitiesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) articleen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1515/2153-3792.1134en_US
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/2153-3792.1134 en_US