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題名 都市蔓延與氣候暖化關係之研究－以台北都會區為例
The Study of relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming - An example of Taipei metropolitan area
作者 賴玫錡
Lai, Mei Chi
貢獻者 劉小蘭
Liu, Hsiao Lan
賴玫錡
Lai, Mei Chi
關鍵詞 都市蔓延
氣候暖化
地理資訊系統
長期追蹤資料模型
urban sprawl
climate warming
GIS
panel data model
日期 2007
上傳時間 9-十二月-2010 16:39:32 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究主要探討台北都會區都市蔓延與氣候暖化之關係，實證分析是否都市蔓延的發展形態會造成氣溫的上升。有研究指出台灣的歷年氣溫上升是因為近年來工商業急速發展，人口增加，建築物型態改變，交通運輸量激增等所致。國內外許多研究也發現都市化與氣溫是呈現正相關，而綠地與氣溫呈現負相關。

本研究實證分析部分使用地理資訊系統之內差法和空間分析方法，以及迴歸分析使用panel data之固定效果模型等工具，內插法之結果得到台北都會區年平均氣溫自1996年至2006年約上升1℃，有些地區甚至上升約2℃，且上升之溫度範圍有擴大的趨勢，呈現放射狀的溫度分布，此與都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態類似。使用空間分析方法則證實了一地人口數的增加會造成該地氣溫上升，並且也發現近來人口數多增加在都市外圍地區，這與上述氣溫分布和都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態也相符合。

迴歸分析結果顯示人口數對於氣溫有相當大之正相關，耕地面積對氣溫則呈現負相關，可見得擁有廣大綠地可以降低區域之氣溫，減緩氣候暖化，因此建議政府需檢討當前農地政策，配合環境保護，適合時宜的提出正確之政策。另外在各鄉鎮市區固定效果估計量方面，可以歸納出若一地區有廣大的公園、綠地、或是有河川流域的經過，對於降低當地氣溫有明顯的幫助；時間趨勢之固定效果估計量顯示台北都會區隨著時間的經過，氣溫將持續上升。因此在未來都市規劃方面，規劃者必須了解各地區特性，善加利用其自然環境以調和氣候暖化之影響、多設置公園綠地、多種植綠色植物、在道路周邊行道樹的設置、建築物間風場之設計等。如此將可以降低都市蔓延對氣候暖化的影響，以及防止氣候暖化的發生。
In this study, we research the relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming in Taipei metropolitan area. Analyze empirically whether the developed shape of urban sprawl causes the climbing of the temperature. Some studies indicate that the reasons why the climate is getting warmer in Taiwan are the high-speed developments of industry and commerce, the increase of population, the changes of the buildings and the huge increase of the traffic volume. Some other studies also find out that there is a positive correlation between the urbanization and the temperature, and there is a negative correlation between the green space and the temperature.

The empirical analysis in this study is based on the Interpolation Method and Spatial Analysis of GIS. And the regression analysis is based on the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data. The yearly average temperature increased about 1℃ to 2℃ in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1996 to 2006. Furthermore, the range of the increasing temperature has been trending up, and it reveals a radial distribution. It is similar to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl. By using Spatial Analysis, we prove that the temperature of an area increases when the population rises. And we find out that the population rises in most of the peri-urban areas. It also answers to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl and the distribution of the temperature as above.

The result of using the regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the number of the population and the temperature and is a negative correlation between the farmland areas and the temperature. So that if there is a big green space, it can decrease the temperature in an area, reduce climate warming. For this reason, I suggest that the government should review our current farmland policy, which should be worked with the environmental protection policy, and bring it into practice at the right time right place. From the fixed effect estimation, we concludes that it helps decrease the temperature in an area obviously when there is a big park, big green space or where a river passing through. The time trend of the fixed effect estimation indicates that the climate in the Taipei metropolitan area will be getting warming with time goes by. Therefore, the urban planner should know better of the feature in each area, using the natural environment to accommodate the influence of climate warming. To have more parks, green spaces and plants, plant more trees by the roads, design the wind flow between buildings. Cut down the carbon production by using either way. Thus and so, we can reduce the influence of urban sprawl to climate warming, and also prevent climate warming.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
95257027
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095257027
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 劉小蘭zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Liu, Hsiao Lanen_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 賴玫錡zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Lai, Mei Chien_US
dc.creator (作者) 賴玫錡zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lai, Mei Chien_US
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-十二月-2010 16:39:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-十二月-2010 16:39:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-十二月-2010 16:39:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0095257027en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50032-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95257027zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究主要探討台北都會區都市蔓延與氣候暖化之關係，實證分析是否都市蔓延的發展形態會造成氣溫的上升。有研究指出台灣的歷年氣溫上升是因為近年來工商業急速發展，人口增加，建築物型態改變，交通運輸量激增等所致。國內外許多研究也發現都市化與氣溫是呈現正相關，而綠地與氣溫呈現負相關。

本研究實證分析部分使用地理資訊系統之內差法和空間分析方法，以及迴歸分析使用panel data之固定效果模型等工具，內插法之結果得到台北都會區年平均氣溫自1996年至2006年約上升1℃，有些地區甚至上升約2℃，且上升之溫度範圍有擴大的趨勢，呈現放射狀的溫度分布，此與都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態類似。使用空間分析方法則證實了一地人口數的增加會造成該地氣溫上升，並且也發現近來人口數多增加在都市外圍地區，這與上述氣溫分布和都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態也相符合。

迴歸分析結果顯示人口數對於氣溫有相當大之正相關，耕地面積對氣溫則呈現負相關，可見得擁有廣大綠地可以降低區域之氣溫，減緩氣候暖化，因此建議政府需檢討當前農地政策，配合環境保護，適合時宜的提出正確之政策。另外在各鄉鎮市區固定效果估計量方面，可以歸納出若一地區有廣大的公園、綠地、或是有河川流域的經過，對於降低當地氣溫有明顯的幫助；時間趨勢之固定效果估計量顯示台北都會區隨著時間的經過，氣溫將持續上升。因此在未來都市規劃方面，規劃者必須了解各地區特性，善加利用其自然環境以調和氣候暖化之影響、多設置公園綠地、多種植綠色植物、在道路周邊行道樹的設置、建築物間風場之設計等。如此將可以降低都市蔓延對氣候暖化的影響，以及防止氣候暖化的發生。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In this study, we research the relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming in Taipei metropolitan area. Analyze empirically whether the developed shape of urban sprawl causes the climbing of the temperature. Some studies indicate that the reasons why the climate is getting warmer in Taiwan are the high-speed developments of industry and commerce, the increase of population, the changes of the buildings and the huge increase of the traffic volume. Some other studies also find out that there is a positive correlation between the urbanization and the temperature, and there is a negative correlation between the green space and the temperature.

The empirical analysis in this study is based on the Interpolation Method and Spatial Analysis of GIS. And the regression analysis is based on the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data. The yearly average temperature increased about 1℃ to 2℃ in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1996 to 2006. Furthermore, the range of the increasing temperature has been trending up, and it reveals a radial distribution. It is similar to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl. By using Spatial Analysis, we prove that the temperature of an area increases when the population rises. And we find out that the population rises in most of the peri-urban areas. It also answers to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl and the distribution of the temperature as above.

The result of using the regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the number of the population and the temperature and is a negative correlation between the farmland areas and the temperature. So that if there is a big green space, it can decrease the temperature in an area, reduce climate warming. For this reason, I suggest that the government should review our current farmland policy, which should be worked with the environmental protection policy, and bring it into practice at the right time right place. From the fixed effect estimation, we concludes that it helps decrease the temperature in an area obviously when there is a big park, big green space or where a river passing through. The time trend of the fixed effect estimation indicates that the climate in the Taipei metropolitan area will be getting warming with time goes by. Therefore, the urban planner should know better of the feature in each area, using the natural environment to accommodate the influence of climate warming. To have more parks, green spaces and plants, plant more trees by the roads, design the wind flow between buildings. Cut down the carbon production by using either way. Thus and so, we can reduce the influence of urban sprawl to climate warming, and also prevent climate warming.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與研究方法 4
第三節 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 都市蔓延與都市化、都市擴張之意涵與整合 7
第二節 都市蔓延對自然資源的影響 8
第三節 都市蔓延與氣候暖化 13
第四節 都市氣候暖化的解決方式 20
第五節 小結 23
第三章 都市蔓延指標總體資料說明與分析 25
第一節 台灣地區現況 25
第二節 台北都會區現況 32
第三節 台北都會區歷年平均氣溫變化 38
第四節 小結 44
第四章 台北都會區年平均氣溫與都市蔓延指標之實證分析 45
第一節 台北都會區年平均氣溫與人口聚集情形分析 45
第二節 實證資料來源說明與敘述統計分析 50
第三節 模型建立與預期結果 53
第四節 模型實證結果分析 57
第五節 小結 64
第五章 結論與建議 65
第一節 結論 65
第二節 政策建議 67
第三節 後續研究建議 69

參考文獻 70		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095257027en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 都市蔓延zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 氣候暖化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地理資訊系統zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 長期追蹤資料模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) urban sprawlen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) climate warmingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GISen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) panel data modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 都市蔓延與氣候暖化關係之研究－以台北都會區為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Study of relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming - An example of Taipei metropolitan areaen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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