| dc.contributor.advisor | 張金鶚 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 陳佳甫 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 陳佳甫 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2008 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 9-十二月-2010 16:46:54 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 9-十二月-2010 16:46:54 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 9-十二月-2010 16:46:54 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0096257014 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50039 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 地政研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 96257014 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 97 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 價格預期是影響市場價格波動的重要因素，但過去房價預期的研究多半以客觀的市場與環境因素取代購屋者實際的預期，缺乏購屋個體實際的預期研究。股價與物價預期相關研究已從個體預期的角度發現價格預期具有高度的異質性，隱含多元豐富的資訊。故本研究希望釐清個體購屋者預期，是否因身分屬性、搜尋行為、動機與認知產生不同的預期？房價預期的差異與股價預期、民生消費品價格預期有何不同與類似之處？在不同的景氣狀況之下預期之異質性是否因此而改變？由於購屋者預期為類別變數，本研究使用多項羅吉特模型。實證結果顯示，購屋者身分、行為、動機與認知使房價預期產生差異，其中女性購屋者看漲機率較男性高與消費市場預期差異結果相同，加上住宅投資消費目的皆較投資者多，推測購屋者對住宅商品之看法仍偏向消費市場。此外，從在不同景氣階段，房價預期之異質性會因此改變，主因是住宅投資與消費價比例發生變化。當市場投資比例增加時，購屋者房價預期差異較大，反之預期差異較小。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與問題 1第二節 研究資料與方法 4第三節 研究架構與流程 6第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 7第一節 預期假說 7第二節 房價預期異質性 10第三節 投資與消費市場之預期異質性 12第三章 研究設計 15第一節 房價預期設定 15第二節 模型與變數設定 17第三節 資料說明 23第四章 實證分析 26第一節 未分景氣階段之房價預期差異 26第二節 不同景氣階段預期差異 31第三節 小結 37第五章 結論與建議 38第一節 結論 38第二節 建議 40參考文獻 41附錄一 獨立於無關替選方案檢定 i附錄二 模型差異檢定 ii附錄三 住宅需求動向調查 （以2008Q3為例） iii | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096257014 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 房價預期 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 預期異質性 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 多項羅吉特模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 購屋者房價預期分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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