| dc.contributor.advisor | 邱鳳臨<br>蕭明福 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | 張家瑋 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (作者) | Chang, Chia Wei | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 張家瑋 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chang, Chia Wei | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2010 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 29-九月-2011 18:32:09 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 29-九月-2011 18:32:09 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 29-九月-2011 18:32:09 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0098258023 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51039 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 經濟學系 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 98258023 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 99 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 近數十年來旅遊業不斷茁壯並走向多元化，在一國經濟中常扮演著舉足輕重地位。澳門為一小型開放經濟體，旅遊業是其產業龍頭及重點發展目標，對整體經濟發展至關重要。然回顧過去文獻少有考慮季節性與突發事件干擾的前提下，針對亞太地區的旅遊需求研究，加以預測方法多為單獨使用因果分析法或時間序列法。本研究在考慮該二種因素，先利用片段線性模型刻畫結構轉變的發生，再進一步結合時間序列分析法建構轉移函數模型。基於平均絕對比率誤差與均方差平方根的評比，轉移函數模型在預測澳門旅遊需求能力上確實有著較優異的表現。實證研究結果可供澳門旅遊相關業者規劃投資、觀光行銷企劃及政府單位採行總體政策參考。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 .................... 1第一節 研究背景與動機 .................... 1第二節 研究目的 .................... 4第三節 研究方法 .................... 5第四節 研究架構 .................... 5第二章 澳門概況 .................... 6第一節 澳門簡介 .................... 6第二節 澳門旅遊業發展 .................... 7第三章 文獻回顧 .................... 10第一節 觀光事業相關探討 .................... 10第二節 旅遊需求預測模型 .................... 16第三節 旅遊需求文獻 .................... 18第四章 澳門旅遊需求預測模型 .................... 24第一節 模型設定 .................... 24第二節 模型預測能力判斷指標 .................... 28第五章 實證估計結果與分析 .................... 30第一節 資料處理 .................... 30第二節 參數估計 .................... 32第三節 樣本外預測 .................... 40第六章 結論與建議 .................... 44參考文獻 .................... 46 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258023 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 轉移函數模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 旅遊需求 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 澳門 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | transfer function model | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | tourism demand | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | forecast | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Macau | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 轉移函數模型在旅遊需求預測上的應用-以澳門為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Forecasting demand for tourism using a transfer function model - A case for Macau | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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