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題名 美元霸權與石油金融化：再思霸權穩定論
Dollar hegemony and financialization of oil: rethink hegemonic stability theory
作者 黃偉倫
Huang, Wei Lun
貢獻者 鄧中堅
黃偉倫
Huang, Wei Lun
關鍵詞 美元霸權
石油金融化
霸權穩定論
國際貨幣權力
金融全球化
Dollar Hegemony
Financialization of Oil
Hegemonic Stability Theory
International Monetary Power
Financial Globalization
日期 2009
上傳時間 11-十月-2011 17:05:57 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文以「美元霸權」為核心，討論美國做為貨幣霸權對於國際金融體系的影響。首先介紹霸權穩定論之理論內涵與發展，經過重新檢視霸權穩定論的思想內涵後，筆者發現霸權穩定論有許多缺陷並提出修正。其次，討論美元霸權在布列敦森林體系瓦解之後的形成與運作。美元霸權的起源是1971年尼克森將美元與黃金脫鉤，之後，經由1974年「石油-美元計價機制」與金融全球化進一步鞏固美元的霸權地位。最後，以「石油金融化」現象為例，說明美國是如何結合「石油-美元計價機制」與「金融全球化」來鞏固美元霸權地位，最後也導致國際金融體系的不穩定。

本文認為，美國將石油市場變成了一個大型賭場。石油價格暴漲暴跌將對世界經濟，尤其是發展中國家帶來不利影響。「石油-美元計價機制」是一種「誘捕」，它強化了從屬國家對美元的依賴。憑著不對稱的金融相互依賴，美國穩居霸權地位。然而，一個穩定的國際金融體系不能只靠主導國家權力的使用，一個階層狀態的國際關係，還必須有從屬國家配合的意願。隨著「二次大戰效應」的消失，美國無法再以國內市場的龐大需求滿足發展中國家的出口導向政策，因此，身為主導國家的美國必須運用國際金融發展的不對稱性，提供從屬國家支持美元霸權的誘因，此種不對稱性的互賴關係也是美元霸權的權力來源。此外，霸權權力具有自我毀滅的傾向。在金融全球化的過程中，政府的權威不斷被削弱，導致政治反應能力遠遠落後於經濟力量的發展。若美國不採取行動管理國際金融體系，取得主導國家的正當性，則衰落是不可避免。
參考文獻 中文部份
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弗朗索瓦沙奈（François Chesnais）（2009）等著，齊建華、胡振良譯，《突破金融危機》（La Finance Mondialisée），北京：中央編譯出版。
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汪壽陽、余樂安等（2008），《國際油價波動分析與預測》，湖南：湖南大學出版社。
林小芳（2009），<關於美元霸權的兩個問題>，李慎明主編，《美元霸權與經濟危機》，北京: 社會科學文獻出版社。
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管清友（2010），《石油的邏輯：國際油價波動機制與中國能源安全》，北京：清華大學出版社。
魯世巍（2006），《美元霸權與國際貨幣格局》，北京：中國經濟出版社。
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台灣綜合研究院，「油品避險及避險規範」，專題分析報導，石油市場雙週報，2007年9月26日。
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
97253023
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097253023
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 鄧中堅zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) 黃偉倫zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Huang, Wei Lunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃偉倫zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Huang, Wei Lunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-十月-2011 17:05:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-十月-2011 17:05:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-十月-2011 17:05:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0097253023en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51644-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97253023zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文以「美元霸權」為核心，討論美國做為貨幣霸權對於國際金融體系的影響。首先介紹霸權穩定論之理論內涵與發展，經過重新檢視霸權穩定論的思想內涵後，筆者發現霸權穩定論有許多缺陷並提出修正。其次，討論美元霸權在布列敦森林體系瓦解之後的形成與運作。美元霸權的起源是1971年尼克森將美元與黃金脫鉤，之後，經由1974年「石油-美元計價機制」與金融全球化進一步鞏固美元的霸權地位。最後，以「石油金融化」現象為例，說明美國是如何結合「石油-美元計價機制」與「金融全球化」來鞏固美元霸權地位，最後也導致國際金融體系的不穩定。

本文認為，美國將石油市場變成了一個大型賭場。石油價格暴漲暴跌將對世界經濟，尤其是發展中國家帶來不利影響。「石油-美元計價機制」是一種「誘捕」，它強化了從屬國家對美元的依賴。憑著不對稱的金融相互依賴，美國穩居霸權地位。然而，一個穩定的國際金融體系不能只靠主導國家權力的使用，一個階層狀態的國際關係，還必須有從屬國家配合的意願。隨著「二次大戰效應」的消失，美國無法再以國內市場的龐大需求滿足發展中國家的出口導向政策，因此，身為主導國家的美國必須運用國際金融發展的不對稱性，提供從屬國家支持美元霸權的誘因，此種不對稱性的互賴關係也是美元霸權的權力來源。此外，霸權權力具有自我毀滅的傾向。在金融全球化的過程中，政府的權威不斷被削弱，導致政治反應能力遠遠落後於經濟力量的發展。若美國不採取行動管理國際金融體系，取得主導國家的正當性，則衰落是不可避免。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
研究動機 1
研究目的 4
第二節 文獻回顧 6
霸權穩定論 6
美元霸權與金融霸權 8
金融全球化 10
國際貨幣權力 12
石油政治經濟 13
第三節 研究方法 18
詮釋學方法 18
案例研究法 19
文獻分析法 20
第四節 研究範圍與限制 21
研究範圍 21
研究限制 21
第五節 論文架構 23


第二章 霸權穩定論之思想演進與理論內涵 25
第一節 Charles P. Kindleberger的霸權穩定思想 28
現實主義或自由主義？ 28
國際公共財 30
第二節 Robert Gilpin的霸權穩定思想 34
霸權體系之變遷 34
霸權衰落 35
第三節 Stephen D. Krasner的霸權穩定思想 38
國際貿易結構 38
第四節 對霸權穩定論前提假設之批判 40
霸權領導與體系穩定 40
霸權衰落與體系不穩定 41
國際公共財是霸權私有財 43
美國霸權未衰落 44
第五節 結構性權力與國際貨幣關係 47
Susan Strange的結構性權力概念 47
Benjamin J. Cohen與Jonathan Kirshner的結構性權力概念 50
第六節 霸權穩定論之修正與研究假設 53
霸權穩定論之修正 53
研究假設 55


第三章 美元霸權之形成與運作 57
第一節 美國貨幣霸權的意義與演進 59
貨幣領導與貨幣霸權的意義 59
美元霸權的起源與發展 61
第二節 美元與黃金脫鉤 63
美元與美國霸權 63
固定匯率的終結 65
牙買加體系 67
第三節 石油與美元霸權 69
石油交易以美元計價 70
石油美元回流 72
第四節 金融全球化 74
第五節 美元霸權的特色與金融不穩定 79
美國的國際收支赤字 80
美元霸權的經濟意義 84
當今的金融不穩定 86


第四章 石油金融化對美元霸權之意義 89
第一節 石油市場的歷史 91
國際石油公司壟斷時期（1860~1971） 91
OPEC主導時期（1971~1986） 94
OPEC支配力降低時期 （1986~1990） 97
第二節 2003年以來石油價格上漲之非金融因素解釋 101
石油高峰論 103
石油蘊藏量與石油生產量由政治經濟因素決定 105
第三節 國際油價波動的貨幣因素 107
美元匯率因素 107
石油計價貨幣會改變嗎？ 109
第四節 石油金融化 113
金融化與金融創新 114
石油市場的金融化：石油價格波動不僅由實體石油供給決定 116
石油貿易的金融化：高油價不必然導致探勘與生產的擴張 118
金融危機與石油金融化 119


第五章 研究發現與結論 123
第一節 研究發現 124
第二節 結論 126
第三節 未來研究方向 128


附錄一 世界主要能源交易所 129


參考文獻 133
中文部份 133
英文部份 135		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097253023en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美元霸權zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 石油金融化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 霸權穩定論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際貨幣權力zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金融全球化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dollar Hegemonyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financialization of Oilen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hegemonic Stability Theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) International Monetary Poweren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial Globalizationen_US
dc.title (題名) 美元霸權與石油金融化：再思霸權穩定論zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Dollar hegemony and financialization of oil: rethink hegemonic stability theoryen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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