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題名 經理人自信程度與公司績效
The confidence level of CEOs and the performance of firms
作者 李孟玲
Lee, Mengling Jannies
貢獻者 周行一
Chow, Edward H.
李孟玲
Lee, Mengling Jannies
關鍵詞 過度自信
公司績效
高階經理人持股變化
Excessively overconfident
Excessively diffident
Firm value
CEO shareholding
日期 2011
上傳時間 17-四月-2012 09:11:17 (UTC+8)
摘要 Anand M. Goel and Anjan V Thakor 於最近的財務學刊中提出理性且風險趨避的經理人會放棄部分正報酬但風險高的投資,造成投資不足問題,使得公司價值未能極大化。然而,極端過度自信的經理人投資正負報酬皆有的計畫,造成過度投資,使得公司價值遞減。只有中度自信的經理人能為公司價值帶來極大化效果。本篇研究採用台灣上市櫃公司近二十年資料,以公司經理人對公司持股的變化來衡量其過度自信的程度,探討公司經理人自信程度對公司獲利能力與公司價值的影響。實證研究發現,極端過度自信的經理人與極端保守的經理人使公司的績效與成長性減少,降低公司價值。此研究增加我們了解經理人自有特徵對公司價值的影響,並為公司理財課題帶來新的貢獻。
  Former literature theorized that excessively overconfident CEOs and excessively diffident CEOs reduce the firm value for underinvestment and overinvestment problems and moderate overconfident CEOs willing to take risky but positive NPV projects increase the firm value. This paper conducts an empirical research by using the change of purchase and sale on own company stocks took by CEOs to measure CEO overconfidence level in Taiwanese listing companies and find that the profitability and stock performance of firms led by excessively overconfident CEOs and excessively diffident CEOs decrease compared to by moderate overconfident CEOs. The result contributes to the understanding of the impact on firm valuation by CEO idiosyncratic characteristics and offers new evidence to behavior finance on corporate management.
參考文獻 Anand M. Goel and Anjan V Thakor, 2008, Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance, Journal of Finance 63, 2737-2784.
Andreas Mueller, Overconfidence and increased corporate investment volatility, Working paper.
Barber, Brad, and Terrance Odean, 2001, Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence and common stock investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics 116, 261–292.
Ben-David, Itzhak, Campbell R. Harvey and John R. Graham, 2007, Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies, NBER Working Paper, No. W13711.
Brennan, M. J., T. Chordia, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Alternative Factor Specifications, Security Characteristics, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Economics 49, 345-373.
Chia-chen Teng and Victor W. Liu, 2011, CEO overconfidence and pecking order prediction – evidence from Taiwanese Electronics Companies.
David A. Hirshleifer, Angie Low, Siew Hong Tech, 2010, Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?, Working paper.
Dirk Hackbarth, 2008, Managerial traits and capital structure decisions, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, 843-882.
Fama, E, F, and J, D, MacBeth, 1973, Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests, Journal of Political Economy 81, 607-636.
Gervais Simon, J.B. Heaton, and Terrance Odean, 2008, Overconfidence, investment policy, and manager welfare, Working paper, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.
Gervais, Simon, J.B. Heaton, and Terrance Odean, 2011, Overconfidence, Compensation Contracts, and Capital Budgeting, Journal of Finance 66, 1735–1777.
Gompers, P A, and A, Metrick, 2001, Institutional Investors and Equity Prices, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 229-259.
Grinblatt, Mark, and Matti Keloharju, 2011, Sensation seeking, overconfidence and trading activity, Journal of Finance 66, 1687–1733.
Grund, Christian, and Dirk Sliwka, 2006, Performance pay and risk aversion, IZA Discussion paper 2012.
Jin, Li and S.P. Kothari, 2008, Effect of personal taxes on managers’ decisions to sell their stock, Journal of Accounting and Economics 46, 23-46.
John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Manju Puri, 2010, Managerial attitudes and corporate actions, Working paper.
Khambata, Dara, and Wei Liu, 2006, Cultural dimensions, risk aversion and corporate dividend policy, Journal of Asia-Pacific Business 6, 31–43.
Kidd, John B., 1970, The utilization if subjective probabilities in production planning, Acta Psychologica 34, 338-347
Larwood, L., and W. Whittaker, 1977, Managerial myopia: self-serving biases in organizational planning, Journal of Applied Psychology 62, 94-198.
Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey A. Tate, 2005, CEO overconfidence and corporate investment, Journal of Finance 60, 2660-2700.
Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey A. Tate, 2005, Does Overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measure revisited, European Financial Management 5, 649-659.
Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey A. Tate, 2008, Who makes acquisition? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction, Journal of Financial Economics 89, 20-43.
Malmendier, Ulrike, Geoffrey A. Tate, and Jon Yan, 2011, Overconfidence and Early-Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies, Journal of Finance 66, 1687–1733.
Moore, P.G., 1977, The manager’s struggle with uncertainty, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series A 149, 129-165.
Paul Hribar, 2010, Does CEO overconfidence affect management forecasting and subsequent earnings management?, working paper.
Richard Deaves, Erik Lüders, and Michael Schröder, 2010, The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 402-412.
Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, 2009, Founder-CEOs, Investment Decisions, and Stock Market Performance, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 44, 439-466.
Schrand, Catherine and Sarah Zechman, 2007, Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting, Journal of accounting and economics.
Shin, H, and R, M, Stulz, 2000, Firm Value, Risk, and Growth Opportunities, NBER Working Paper.
Suto, Megumi, Lukas Menkhoff, and Daniela Beckmann, 2005, Behavioral biases of institutional investors under pressure from customers: Japan and Germany vs. U.S., Waseda University Institute of Finance Working paper WIF-05-006.
T. Colin Campbell, Michael Gallmeyer, Shane A. Johnson, and Jessica Rutherford, 2011, CEO optimism and forced turnover, Journal of financial economics 101, 695-712.
Wright, G.N. and L.D. Philips, 1980, Cultural variation in probabilistic thinking: Alternative ways of dealing with uncertainty, International Journal of Psychology 15, 239-257.
Wright, G.N., L.D. Philips, P.C. Whalley, G.T. Choo, K.O. Ng, I. Tan and A. Wisudha, 1978, Cultural differences in probabilistic thinking, Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 9, 285-299.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
99357012
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099357012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 周行一zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chow, Edward H.en_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 李孟玲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Lee, Mengling Janniesen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李孟玲zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lee, Mengling Janniesen_US
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-四月-2012 09:11:17 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-四月-2012 09:11:17 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-四月-2012 09:11:17 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0099357012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/52731-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99357012zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Anand M. Goel and Anjan V Thakor 於最近的財務學刊中提出理性且風險趨避的經理人會放棄部分正報酬但風險高的投資,造成投資不足問題,使得公司價值未能極大化。然而,極端過度自信的經理人投資正負報酬皆有的計畫,造成過度投資,使得公司價值遞減。只有中度自信的經理人能為公司價值帶來極大化效果。本篇研究採用台灣上市櫃公司近二十年資料,以公司經理人對公司持股的變化來衡量其過度自信的程度,探討公司經理人自信程度對公司獲利能力與公司價值的影響。實證研究發現,極端過度自信的經理人與極端保守的經理人使公司的績效與成長性減少,降低公司價值。此研究增加我們了解經理人自有特徵對公司價值的影響,並為公司理財課題帶來新的貢獻。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)   Former literature theorized that excessively overconfident CEOs and excessively diffident CEOs reduce the firm value for underinvestment and overinvestment problems and moderate overconfident CEOs willing to take risky but positive NPV projects increase the firm value. This paper conducts an empirical research by using the change of purchase and sale on own company stocks took by CEOs to measure CEO overconfidence level in Taiwanese listing companies and find that the profitability and stock performance of firms led by excessively overconfident CEOs and excessively diffident CEOs decrease compared to by moderate overconfident CEOs. The result contributes to the understanding of the impact on firm valuation by CEO idiosyncratic characteristics and offers new evidence to behavior finance on corporate management.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents I. Introduction................................. 6
II. Literature review and hypothesis............12
III. Measures of CEO’s confidence level.........15
3.1 Measures of excessive overconfident, moderate overconfidence, and excessive diffident....15
3.2 Alternative Explanation................19
IV. Sample description and summary statistics...21
4.1 Sample.................................21
4.2 Statistic Summary......................22
V. Results......................................26
5.1 Firm valuation.........................26
5.2 Stock performance......................30
VI. Conclusion..................................37
References......................................39
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099357012en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度自信zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公司績效zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 高階經理人持股變化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Excessively overconfidenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Excessively diffidenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Firm valueen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CEO shareholdingen_US
dc.title (題名) 經理人自信程度與公司績效zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The confidence level of CEOs and the performance of firmsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anand M. Goel and Anjan V Thakor, 2008, Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance, Journal of Finance 63, 2737-2784.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Andreas Mueller, Overconfidence and increased corporate investment volatility, Working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barber, Brad, and Terrance Odean, 2001, Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence and common stock investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics 116, 261–292.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ben-David, Itzhak, Campbell R. Harvey and John R. Graham, 2007, Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies, NBER Working Paper, No. W13711.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brennan, M. J., T. Chordia, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Alternative Factor Specifications, Security Characteristics, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns, Journal of Financial Economics 49, 345-373.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chia-chen Teng and Victor W. Liu, 2011, CEO overconfidence and pecking order prediction – evidence from Taiwanese Electronics Companies.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) David A. Hirshleifer, Angie Low, Siew Hong Tech, 2010, Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?, Working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dirk Hackbarth, 2008, Managerial traits and capital structure decisions, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, 843-882.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fama, E, F, and J, D, MacBeth, 1973, Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests, Journal of Political Economy 81, 607-636.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gervais Simon, J.B. Heaton, and Terrance Odean, 2008, Overconfidence, investment policy, and manager welfare, Working paper, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gervais, Simon, J.B. Heaton, and Terrance Odean, 2011, Overconfidence, Compensation Contracts, and Capital Budgeting, Journal of Finance 66, 1735–1777.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gompers, P A, and A, Metrick, 2001, Institutional Investors and Equity Prices, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 229-259.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grinblatt, Mark, and Matti Keloharju, 2011, Sensation seeking, overconfidence and trading activity, Journal of Finance 66, 1687–1733.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grund, Christian, and Dirk Sliwka, 2006, Performance pay and risk aversion, IZA Discussion paper 2012.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jin, Li and S.P. Kothari, 2008, Effect of personal taxes on managers’ decisions to sell their stock, Journal of Accounting and Economics 46, 23-46.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Manju Puri, 2010, Managerial attitudes and corporate actions, Working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Khambata, Dara, and Wei Liu, 2006, Cultural dimensions, risk aversion and corporate dividend policy, Journal of Asia-Pacific Business 6, 31–43.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kidd, John B., 1970, The utilization if subjective probabilities in production planning, Acta Psychologica 34, 338-347zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Larwood, L., and W. Whittaker, 1977, Managerial myopia: self-serving biases in organizational planning, Journal of Applied Psychology 62, 94-198.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey A. Tate, 2005, CEO overconfidence and corporate investment, Journal of Finance 60, 2660-2700.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey A. Tate, 2005, Does Overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measure revisited, European Financial Management 5, 649-659.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey A. Tate, 2008, Who makes acquisition? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction, Journal of Financial Economics 89, 20-43.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malmendier, Ulrike, Geoffrey A. Tate, and Jon Yan, 2011, Overconfidence and Early-Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies, Journal of Finance 66, 1687–1733.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moore, P.G., 1977, The manager’s struggle with uncertainty, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series A 149, 129-165.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Paul Hribar, 2010, Does CEO overconfidence affect management forecasting and subsequent earnings management?, working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Richard Deaves, Erik Lüders, and Michael Schröder, 2010, The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 402-412.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, 2009, Founder-CEOs, Investment Decisions, and Stock Market Performance, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 44, 439-466.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schrand, Catherine and Sarah Zechman, 2007, Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting, Journal of accounting and economics.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shin, H, and R, M, Stulz, 2000, Firm Value, Risk, and Growth Opportunities, NBER Working Paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Suto, Megumi, Lukas Menkhoff, and Daniela Beckmann, 2005, Behavioral biases of institutional investors under pressure from customers: Japan and Germany vs. U.S., Waseda University Institute of Finance Working paper WIF-05-006.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) T. Colin Campbell, Michael Gallmeyer, Shane A. Johnson, and Jessica Rutherford, 2011, CEO optimism and forced turnover, Journal of financial economics 101, 695-712.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wright, G.N. and L.D. Philips, 1980, Cultural variation in probabilistic thinking: Alternative ways of dealing with uncertainty, International Journal of Psychology 15, 239-257.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wright, G.N., L.D. Philips, P.C. Whalley, G.T. Choo, K.O. Ng, I. Tan and A. Wisudha, 1978, Cultural differences in probabilistic thinking, Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 9, 285-299.zh_TW