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題名 兩岸簽署貨幣清算協議之影響:以貿易人民幣結算為例
The effect of a cross-strait currency settlement agreement-using Renminbi trade settlement as an example作者 梁翠月
Liang, Tsui Yueh貢獻者 毛維凌<br>許志義
Mao, Wei Ling<br>Hsu, Jyh Yih
梁翠月
Liang, Tsui Yueh關鍵詞 工具貨幣
貿易人民幣結算
消費現金付現限制
Vehicle Currency
Renminbi Trade Settlement
Cash-in-Advance on Consumption日期 2011 上傳時間 30-十月-2012 14:04:50 (UTC+8) 摘要 隨著中國經濟持續高速成長, 國際貿易及投資快速擴展, 中國更積極推動貿易及投資以人民幣結算, 人民幣在兩岸、 區域甚至全球市場流通可望大幅增加。 1990年代以來, 兩岸經貿快速發展, 相形下, 雙方貨幣層面合作卻明顯幾經波折、 踟躕不前, 目前兩岸雖已開啟人民幣現鈔清算服務但尚未建立貨幣清算機制 , 限制台灣成為人民幣清算平台及後續金融影響力。 本文以 Devereux and Shi(2005) 為主架構, 討論兩岸簽署貨幣清算機制建立對貿易廠商影響, 主要發現如下:(1) 於國際貨幣交易需透過工具貨幣 (Vehicle Currency,VC) 現實下, 兩岸人民幣貿易結算無法完全規避匯率風險, 此與台灣中央銀行意見一致, 但當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 若台灣使用人民幣銷貨收入購買中國商品, 台灣對中國消費將完全不受匯率變化影響, 並非所有匯率風險皆由台灣承擔; 此外, 當中國完全使用人民幣支付自台灣進口商品時, 中國最適決策代數式和 D-S(2005) 雙邊貨幣直接兌換均衡 (BD) 部分相同, 自2012年6 月1 日起, 人民幣與日圓直接兌換亦正式於東京和上海外匯市場展開,結論因而別具政策意涵。(2) 數值分析發現, 當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 台灣及中國總消費對外國商品消費偏好非常不穩健, 對應所有θ, 中國總消費皆較台灣高,且隨θ上升快速增加, 由於兩岸皆較雙邊匯兌需透過美元及雙邊貨幣可直接兌換時消費更多商品, 故可知兩岸皆得利於以人民幣進行結算。 對於上述結論, 需要特別注意的是, 本文以包括台灣、 美國及中國, 且美國為工具貨幣(VC) 發行國之三國模型, 是在非常特例的情況下進行福利分析, 此時雙邊貨幣兌換均衡將與對稱交易均衡相同, 影響所及, 結論受校準時使用基準參數值影響相當大;(3) 本文依循 D-S(2005), 限制工具貨幣發行國美國以外各國僅能於跨期間持有美元, 故無法分析中國得以人民幣購買台灣商品下, 台灣累積一定金額人民幣存量之影響, 然為簡化分析, 排除任何調整過程, 亦為模型不合理處; 此外, 為簡化模型, 設定中國自台灣進口商品貨款中使用人民幣支付比率α為外生, 然而該比率實際上應受人民幣在岸、 離岸市場利差及匯差、 全球景氣變化增加持有美元意願等因素影響, 由於本文僅考慮貿易需求換匯未考慮套利、 套匯行為, 將留待未來進一步分析。
For the past three decades, a skyrocketing Chinese economy has supported its growing influences on international trade and investment,with Beijing’s active promotion for Renminbi investment and trade settlement, its greater circulation across the strait, in the Asia-Pacificregion or even globally is only to be expected. Compared with the significantly intensified and institutionalized cross-strait trade and economic exchanges since early 1990s, monetary cooperation across the strait has obviously stalled and progressed slowly. Currently with only a cross-strait cash settlement agreement,but not an establishment of a cross-strait currency settlement mech-anism clearly limits Taiwan’s prospect to become the next offshore Renminbi center and its future financial influence. This thesis is based on Devereux and Shi(2005) to query into the effect of a cross-strait currency settlement mechanism for firms engaged in international trade. We find that: First, under the reality that international currency trade still uti-lizes U.S. dollar as a vehicle, cross-strait trade settled in Renminbicould not completely avoid exchange rate risks, which is in accordancewith the opinion from central bank, however, when cross-strait tradeare all settled in Renminbi, Taiwan would not bears all the exchangerate risks if Taiwan’s imports from China were paid in its Renminbisales revenue; Furthermore, when all of China’s imports from Taiwanare settled in Renminbi, some of the algebraic expressions representingChinese consumption and currency exchange decisions would coincidewith the bilateral deviation(BD) equilibrium in D-S(2005) entailingsome intriguing policy implications since starting from June 1,2012,yuan and yen can trade directly in Tokyo and Shanghai . Second,numerical analysis found that when cross-strait trade areall settled in Renminbi, though both sides’ total consumption are notrobust to changes in preference toward foreign goods ,θ, for all θ in therelevant range , China’s total consumption is greater than Taiwan andthe difference is increase in θ, in addition, they both consume morethan when cross-strait remittance needs to be done via the U.S. dollarand when New Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan trade directly, itthus can be inferred that both Taiwan and China gain from Renminbitrade settlement.Though cautions should be taken that a welfare anal-ysis utilizing a three-country model consisting of Taiwan, China and the United States which further acts as the issuing country of vehiclecurrency is an extreme case, in that, bilateral deviation and symmet-rical trading equilibrium (STE) would be identical and the outcomehighly subjects to benchmark values used in calibration. Third,The framework is borrowed from Devereux and Shi(2005)which prohibits non-vehicle countries from holding currencies otherthan U.S. dollar intertemporally, hence it could not provide any in-sights to the effects of the accumulation of a Renminbi pool in Taiwanunder the Renminbi trade settlement scheme, which together with thefact that to simplify analysis, no adjusting process is included ren-der the model unreasonable and unrealistic; In addition, to reducemodel construction, α, the percentage of China’s imports from Tai-wan to be paid in Renminbi is exogenous while in reality it shouldbe endogenous and collectively determined by factors not exclusiveto the spreads between CNY and CNH, differences in depositing andlending rates between the onshore and offshore market and investors’inclination which is affected by the outlook of the global economy toembrace the safe haven of U.S. dollar. As arbitrage is ruled out andonly currency exchanges for the purposes of trade is considered, all these drawbacks are to be improved upon in further studies.參考文獻 一、 中文部分[1]李波, 王佐罡, 席鈺 (2011), 跨境人民幣業務與香港人民幣市場, 香港金融研究中心特別報告第七期。[2]馬駿 (2011), 人民幣離岸市場發展對中國國內貨幣和金融的影響, 工作論文。[3]盧世勳 (2008), 評析港幣改釘住人民幣之可能性, 國際金融參考資料第五十六輯, 2008/12, 台灣: 中央銀行。[4]陳美君 (2011), 兩岸貨幣清算卡住了,《台灣銀行家雜誌》,2011卷10, 頁32–33, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[5]葉銀華 (2012), 借力使力 自創平台, 台灣開展離岸人民幣業務之道, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》, 2012卷5期, 頁14–19, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[6]劉紹樑 (2012), 歐盟的教訓: 整而未合 適得其反, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》,2012卷7期, 頁18–20, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[7]邱金蘭 (2012), 陸銀開幕 兩岸金融寫新頁, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》, 2012卷7期, 頁22–27, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[8]沈中華 (2012), 臺灣成為人民幣離岸中心, 臺灣經濟金融月刊第四十八卷第五期, 頁58–70。[9]沈中華、 王儷容,(2012), 台北, 有三個競爭對手, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》, 2012卷7期, 頁34。[10]余永定 (2012), 從當前的人民幣匯率波動看人民幣國際化, 中國社會科學院世界經濟與政治研究所國際金融研究中心,Policy Brief No.2012.006。[11]張穎 (2012), 香港人民幣離岸市場進一步發展的機遇和挑戰, 中銀經濟月刊,2012/4, 香港: 中國銀行(香港)。[12]張穎 (2011), 人民幣離岸市場有助強化香港國際金融中心競爭力, 中銀經濟月刊,2011/6, 香港: 中國銀行(香港)。[13]張永隆 (2005), 一個台灣經濟的估計動態隨機均衡模型, 行政院國家科學委員會[14]國務院發展研究中心課題組 (2011), 人民幣區域化條件與路徑, 北京,中國發展出版社。[15]陳暉 (2011), 日圓國際化的經驗與教訓, 北京, 社會科學文獻出版社。[16]左正光, 葉國俊 (2011), 金融海嘯後中國對於東亞貨幣整合的策略分析: 亞元與人民幣之間的抉擇, 遠景基金會季刊, 十二卷一期, 頁81–128。[17]中國人民銀行 (2012),2012年第1季度 中國貨幣政策執行報告, 北京。[18]中國人民銀行 (2012),2012年第2季度 中國貨幣政策執行報告, 北京。[19]中央銀行 (2011), 中央銀行新聞發布第155號, 民國100年8月14日, 台灣。[20]政制及內地事務局, 立法會內務委員會香港特別行政區配合國家 「十二五」 規劃工作的最新進展,2011年5月, 立法會 CB(2)1792/10-11(01) 號文件 available at http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr10-11/chinese/hc/papers/hc0520cb2-1792-1-c.pdf[21]中國銀行 (香港)(2011), 企業跨境人民幣服務手冊, 頁1–23。[22]尹德勝 (2009), 人民幣貿易結算對香港廠商影響, 信息季刊2009年秋季號, Vol.15 Number 3, 香港: 香港出口信用保險局[23]中國人民大學經濟研究所 (2011), 中國宏觀經濟分析與預測報告2011年第三季度 (總第19期), 審慎人民幣國際化進程下的香港離岸中心重構—困境、 定位與政策選擇 , 2011年9月, 北京。[24]吳青樺 (2012), 派赴臺灣銀行香港分行實習報告, 台灣銀行二、 英文部分[1]Andrzej Toroj.(2010)”Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia,” Working Papers 3, Ministry of Finance in Poland.[2]Carla Soares(2008)”Impact on Welfare of Country Heterogeneity in a Currency Union”,Estudos e Documentos de Trabalho Working Papers[3]Chin-Yoong Wong and Yoke-Kee Eng(2010)”Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve”,North American Journal of Economics and Finance,21,198 216[4]Daisy McGregor(2010)”Australia-New Zealand Currency Union:A Structural Approach”,The University of Adelaide School of Economics,Research Paper No. 2010-18.[5]Devereux, Michael B., Charles Engel, and Peter Storgaard. 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The role of invoice currency,” Journal of the Japanese andInternational Economies, vol. 23(3), pages 283-308, September.[39]Vanessa Rossi and William Jackson.(2011)”Hong Kong’s Role in Building the Offshore Renminbi Market”,International Economics Programme Paper,Chatham House.[40]Xu, Juanyi(2011)”The optimal currency basket under vertical trade”,Journal of International Money and Finance,30,pp.1323-1340.[41]Tang, Yao and Pang, Ke(2011)”Vertical Trade, Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through, and Canada’s Exchange Rate Regime.”,Working Paper Series. Paper 3. http://digitalcommons.bowdoin.edu/econpapers/3[42]Yue, Eddie and He,Dong(2008)”The Future of the Renminbi and Its Impact on the Hong Kong Dollar”,Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2(Spring/Summer 2008) 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258020
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258020 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 毛維凌<br>許志義 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Mao, Wei Ling<br>Hsu, Jyh Yih en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 梁翠月 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Liang, Tsui Yueh en_US dc.creator (作者) 梁翠月 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Liang, Tsui Yueh en_US dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 30-十月-2012 14:04:50 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 30-十月-2012 14:04:50 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-十月-2012 14:04:50 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0099258020 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54882 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99258020 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 隨著中國經濟持續高速成長, 國際貿易及投資快速擴展, 中國更積極推動貿易及投資以人民幣結算, 人民幣在兩岸、 區域甚至全球市場流通可望大幅增加。 1990年代以來, 兩岸經貿快速發展, 相形下, 雙方貨幣層面合作卻明顯幾經波折、 踟躕不前, 目前兩岸雖已開啟人民幣現鈔清算服務但尚未建立貨幣清算機制 , 限制台灣成為人民幣清算平台及後續金融影響力。 本文以 Devereux and Shi(2005) 為主架構, 討論兩岸簽署貨幣清算機制建立對貿易廠商影響, 主要發現如下:(1) 於國際貨幣交易需透過工具貨幣 (Vehicle Currency,VC) 現實下, 兩岸人民幣貿易結算無法完全規避匯率風險, 此與台灣中央銀行意見一致, 但當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 若台灣使用人民幣銷貨收入購買中國商品, 台灣對中國消費將完全不受匯率變化影響, 並非所有匯率風險皆由台灣承擔; 此外, 當中國完全使用人民幣支付自台灣進口商品時, 中國最適決策代數式和 D-S(2005) 雙邊貨幣直接兌換均衡 (BD) 部分相同, 自2012年6 月1 日起, 人民幣與日圓直接兌換亦正式於東京和上海外匯市場展開,結論因而別具政策意涵。(2) 數值分析發現, 當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 台灣及中國總消費對外國商品消費偏好非常不穩健, 對應所有θ, 中國總消費皆較台灣高,且隨θ上升快速增加, 由於兩岸皆較雙邊匯兌需透過美元及雙邊貨幣可直接兌換時消費更多商品, 故可知兩岸皆得利於以人民幣進行結算。 對於上述結論, 需要特別注意的是, 本文以包括台灣、 美國及中國, 且美國為工具貨幣(VC) 發行國之三國模型, 是在非常特例的情況下進行福利分析, 此時雙邊貨幣兌換均衡將與對稱交易均衡相同, 影響所及, 結論受校準時使用基準參數值影響相當大;(3) 本文依循 D-S(2005), 限制工具貨幣發行國美國以外各國僅能於跨期間持有美元, 故無法分析中國得以人民幣購買台灣商品下, 台灣累積一定金額人民幣存量之影響, 然為簡化分析, 排除任何調整過程, 亦為模型不合理處; 此外, 為簡化模型, 設定中國自台灣進口商品貨款中使用人民幣支付比率α為外生, 然而該比率實際上應受人民幣在岸、 離岸市場利差及匯差、 全球景氣變化增加持有美元意願等因素影響, 由於本文僅考慮貿易需求換匯未考慮套利、 套匯行為, 將留待未來進一步分析。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) For the past three decades, a skyrocketing Chinese economy has supported its growing influences on international trade and investment,with Beijing’s active promotion for Renminbi investment and trade settlement, its greater circulation across the strait, in the Asia-Pacificregion or even globally is only to be expected. Compared with the significantly intensified and institutionalized cross-strait trade and economic exchanges since early 1990s, monetary cooperation across the strait has obviously stalled and progressed slowly. Currently with only a cross-strait cash settlement agreement,but not an establishment of a cross-strait currency settlement mech-anism clearly limits Taiwan’s prospect to become the next offshore Renminbi center and its future financial influence. This thesis is based on Devereux and Shi(2005) to query into the effect of a cross-strait currency settlement mechanism for firms engaged in international trade. We find that: First, under the reality that international currency trade still uti-lizes U.S. dollar as a vehicle, cross-strait trade settled in Renminbicould not completely avoid exchange rate risks, which is in accordancewith the opinion from central bank, however, when cross-strait tradeare all settled in Renminbi, Taiwan would not bears all the exchangerate risks if Taiwan’s imports from China were paid in its Renminbisales revenue; Furthermore, when all of China’s imports from Taiwanare settled in Renminbi, some of the algebraic expressions representingChinese consumption and currency exchange decisions would coincidewith the bilateral deviation(BD) equilibrium in D-S(2005) entailingsome intriguing policy implications since starting from June 1,2012,yuan and yen can trade directly in Tokyo and Shanghai . Second,numerical analysis found that when cross-strait trade areall settled in Renminbi, though both sides’ total consumption are notrobust to changes in preference toward foreign goods ,θ, for all θ in therelevant range , China’s total consumption is greater than Taiwan andthe difference is increase in θ, in addition, they both consume morethan when cross-strait remittance needs to be done via the U.S. dollarand when New Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan trade directly, itthus can be inferred that both Taiwan and China gain from Renminbitrade settlement.Though cautions should be taken that a welfare anal-ysis utilizing a three-country model consisting of Taiwan, China and the United States which further acts as the issuing country of vehiclecurrency is an extreme case, in that, bilateral deviation and symmet-rical trading equilibrium (STE) would be identical and the outcomehighly subjects to benchmark values used in calibration. Third,The framework is borrowed from Devereux and Shi(2005)which prohibits non-vehicle countries from holding currencies otherthan U.S. dollar intertemporally, hence it could not provide any in-sights to the effects of the accumulation of a Renminbi pool in Taiwanunder the Renminbi trade settlement scheme, which together with thefact that to simplify analysis, no adjusting process is included ren-der the model unreasonable and unrealistic; In addition, to reducemodel construction, α, the percentage of China’s imports from Tai-wan to be paid in Renminbi is exogenous while in reality it shouldbe endogenous and collectively determined by factors not exclusiveto the spreads between CNY and CNH, differences in depositing andlending rates between the onshore and offshore market and investors’inclination which is affected by the outlook of the global economy toembrace the safe haven of U.S. dollar. As arbitrage is ruled out andonly currency exchanges for the purposes of trade is considered, all these drawbacks are to be improved upon in further studies. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1 前言 162 文獻回顧 242.1 最適通貨區理論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242.2 垂直生產、 貿易與報價貨幣 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262.3 工具貨幣 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282.4 工具貨幣及雙邊偏離均衡 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 模型 313.1 中國決策觀點 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353.2 台灣決策觀點 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 數值分析 665 結論與後續研究建議 77A 中國最適決策數學推導 81B 台灣決策數學推導 97C Matlab Code 127D 附表 140E 參考文獻 186 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258020 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 工具貨幣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易人民幣結算 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 消費現金付現限制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Vehicle Currency en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Renminbi Trade Settlement en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cash-in-Advance on Consumption en_US dc.title (題名) 兩岸簽署貨幣清算協議之影響:以貿易人民幣結算為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The effect of a cross-strait currency settlement agreement-using Renminbi trade settlement as an example en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文部分[1]李波, 王佐罡, 席鈺 (2011), 跨境人民幣業務與香港人民幣市場, 香港金融研究中心特別報告第七期。[2]馬駿 (2011), 人民幣離岸市場發展對中國國內貨幣和金融的影響, 工作論文。[3]盧世勳 (2008), 評析港幣改釘住人民幣之可能性, 國際金融參考資料第五十六輯, 2008/12, 台灣: 中央銀行。[4]陳美君 (2011), 兩岸貨幣清算卡住了,《台灣銀行家雜誌》,2011卷10, 頁32–33, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[5]葉銀華 (2012), 借力使力 自創平台, 台灣開展離岸人民幣業務之道, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》, 2012卷5期, 頁14–19, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[6]劉紹樑 (2012), 歐盟的教訓: 整而未合 適得其反, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》,2012卷7期, 頁18–20, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[7]邱金蘭 (2012), 陸銀開幕 兩岸金融寫新頁, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》, 2012卷7期, 頁22–27, 台灣: 財團法人台灣金融研訓院。[8]沈中華 (2012), 臺灣成為人民幣離岸中心, 臺灣經濟金融月刊第四十八卷第五期, 頁58–70。[9]沈中華、 王儷容,(2012), 台北, 有三個競爭對手, 《台灣銀行家雜誌》, 2012卷7期, 頁34。[10]余永定 (2012), 從當前的人民幣匯率波動看人民幣國際化, 中國社會科學院世界經濟與政治研究所國際金融研究中心,Policy Brief No.2012.006。[11]張穎 (2012), 香港人民幣離岸市場進一步發展的機遇和挑戰, 中銀經濟月刊,2012/4, 香港: 中國銀行(香港)。[12]張穎 (2011), 人民幣離岸市場有助強化香港國際金融中心競爭力, 中銀經濟月刊,2011/6, 香港: 中國銀行(香港)。[13]張永隆 (2005), 一個台灣經濟的估計動態隨機均衡模型, 行政院國家科學委員會[14]國務院發展研究中心課題組 (2011), 人民幣區域化條件與路徑, 北京,中國發展出版社。[15]陳暉 (2011), 日圓國際化的經驗與教訓, 北京, 社會科學文獻出版社。[16]左正光, 葉國俊 (2011), 金融海嘯後中國對於東亞貨幣整合的策略分析: 亞元與人民幣之間的抉擇, 遠景基金會季刊, 十二卷一期, 頁81–128。[17]中國人民銀行 (2012),2012年第1季度 中國貨幣政策執行報告, 北京。[18]中國人民銀行 (2012),2012年第2季度 中國貨幣政策執行報告, 北京。[19]中央銀行 (2011), 中央銀行新聞發布第155號, 民國100年8月14日, 台灣。[20]政制及內地事務局, 立法會內務委員會香港特別行政區配合國家 「十二五」 規劃工作的最新進展,2011年5月, 立法會 CB(2)1792/10-11(01) 號文件 available at http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr10-11/chinese/hc/papers/hc0520cb2-1792-1-c.pdf[21]中國銀行 (香港)(2011), 企業跨境人民幣服務手冊, 頁1–23。[22]尹德勝 (2009), 人民幣貿易結算對香港廠商影響, 信息季刊2009年秋季號, Vol.15 Number 3, 香港: 香港出口信用保險局[23]中國人民大學經濟研究所 (2011), 中國宏觀經濟分析與預測報告2011年第三季度 (總第19期), 審慎人民幣國際化進程下的香港離岸中心重構—困境、 定位與政策選擇 , 2011年9月, 北京。[24]吳青樺 (2012), 派赴臺灣銀行香港分行實習報告, 台灣銀行二、 英文部分[1]Andrzej Toroj.(2010)”Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia,” Working Papers 3, Ministry of Finance in Poland.[2]Carla Soares(2008)”Impact on Welfare of Country Heterogeneity in a Currency Union”,Estudos e Documentos de Trabalho Working Papers[3]Chin-Yoong Wong and Yoke-Kee Eng(2010)”Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve”,North American Journal of Economics and Finance,21,198 216[4]Daisy McGregor(2010)”Australia-New Zealand Currency Union:A Structural Approach”,The University of Adelaide School of Economics,Research Paper No. 2010-18.[5]Devereux, Michael B., Charles Engel, and Peter Storgaard. 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