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題名 Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in China: Drivers and Forecasts
作者 吳豐祥
Liu, Xielin ; Wu, Feng-Shang ; Chu, Wen-Lin
貢獻者 科管所
日期 2012-05
上傳時間 13-十二月-2013 15:03:43 (UTC+8)
摘要 Analyzing mobile telephony diffusion involves identifying drivers and forecasting growth using a growth model. However, to our knowledge, no framework for model selection exists. To eliminate ad hoc model selection, this study presents a novel model-comparison method based on an analysis of mobile telephony diffusion in China, which accounts for one-fifth of global mobile telephony subscriptions. Determinants of the diffusion rate are then analyzed using the most appropriate model identified by the proposed model-comparison method in terms of minimum root-mean-square error. Empirical results identify the Gompertz model as the best model for diffusion forecasting. The three most significant determinants are low-cost mobile handsets, prepaid services, and personal handy-phone system (PHS) services. All of these determinants contribute to meeting the demand in Chinas low-end market. This study combines the proposed model-comparison method with estimates of determinants of diffusion rate to improve analysis and forecasting accuracy for mobile telephony diffusion. Moreover, model comparisons using data from eight representative countries (Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S.) provide a valuable reference for model selection for mobile telephony diffusion. © 2012 IEEE.
關聯 IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 59(2), 299-309
資料類型 article
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2010.2058854
dc.contributor 科管所en_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳豐祥zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liu, Xielin ; Wu, Feng-Shang ; Chu, Wen-Linen_US
dc.date (日期) 2012-05en_US
dc.date.accessioned 13-十二月-2013 15:03:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 13-十二月-2013 15:03:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 13-十二月-2013 15:03:43 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/62460-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Analyzing mobile telephony diffusion involves identifying drivers and forecasting growth using a growth model. However, to our knowledge, no framework for model selection exists. To eliminate ad hoc model selection, this study presents a novel model-comparison method based on an analysis of mobile telephony diffusion in China, which accounts for one-fifth of global mobile telephony subscriptions. Determinants of the diffusion rate are then analyzed using the most appropriate model identified by the proposed model-comparison method in terms of minimum root-mean-square error. Empirical results identify the Gompertz model as the best model for diffusion forecasting. The three most significant determinants are low-cost mobile handsets, prepaid services, and personal handy-phone system (PHS) services. All of these determinants contribute to meeting the demand in Chinas low-end market. This study combines the proposed model-comparison method with estimates of determinants of diffusion rate to improve analysis and forecasting accuracy for mobile telephony diffusion. Moreover, model comparisons using data from eight representative countries (Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S.) provide a valuable reference for model selection for mobile telephony diffusion. © 2012 IEEE.-
dc.format.extent 104 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 59(2), 299-309en_US
dc.title (題名) Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in China: Drivers and Forecastsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) articleen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1109/TEM.2010.2058854-
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2010.2058854-