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題名 中國的能源政策與南南合作? 比較分析中巴及中阿能源政策。
China’s Energy Policy and South-South Cooperation? A Comparative Study between Sino-Brazilian and Sino-Argentine Energy Policy 2000-2010
作者 吳華安
Juan Uriburu Quintana
貢獻者 鄧中堅<br>邱稔壤
吳華安
Juan Uriburu Quintana
關鍵詞 N/A
Energy
Policy
China
Brazil
Argentina
日期 2013
摘要 This dissertation studies China’s energy policy since the “Go Out” strategy became the PRC’s “overarching national strategy”, having been put forward for the first time in the 5th Plenum of the 15th CPC Central Committee in October 2000 –despite having been de facto implemented since 1993. It focuses on the evolution of the PRC’s petroleum and biofuels policy from 2000 to 2010 and on the impact it has had on Brazilian and Argentine energy policy and exports of energy resources to China.
The study adopts an asymmetrical interdependent perspective within a South-South Cooperation analytical framework to argue that the role these countries have played as suppliers of fossil energy resources (petroleum) to the PRC throughout the observed period –role that can be defined as having been relatively modest in spite of having ranked as China’s top South American oil suppliers for most of it– has considerable potential to become significantly more relevant in the future, through the diversification of their energy exports to China based on the combination of fossil fuels and renewable energy resources (biofuels).
As regards the former, the study highlights the game-changing discovery of enormous ultra deep-water off-shore reserves in Brazil in 2007 and 2010 (Tupi-Lula and Libra, respectively, which are already turning Brazil into a major oil exporter) and of the gigantic shale energy formation of Vaca Muerta in Argentina in 2010. Regarding the latter, both Brazil and Argentina are leading producers and exporters of biofuels (sugar cane- based ethanol and soybean-based biodiesel, respectively). The remarkable progress that the PRC has made in the energy sectors of the analyzed countries –and in Latin America in general, showing the “asymmetry of attention” paid by China and the USA to the region is emphasized.
The research highlights the increasing importance that renewable energy resources are having in Chinese energy policy, due to both energy security and environmental concerns. It argues that the addition of clean energy resources to their exports to the PRC would benefit Brazil and Argentina by allowing them to diversify not only their export baskets (by adding more products to their exports to China, with the plus that these would have value added) and export destinations (adding the growing Chinese market while simultaneously reducing these countries’ dependence on traditional biofuel destinations such as the EU and the USA), but would also have positive effects for China’s fuel supply mix, contributing to make China’s transition to a low-carbon economy (or, at least, lower-carbon) shorter – as well as positive spillovers in their industrial structures.
描述 博士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
97265504
102
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097265504
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 鄧中堅<br>邱稔壤zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳華安zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Juan Uriburu Quintanaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳華安zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Juan Uriburu Quintanaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2013en_US
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097265504en_US
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97265504zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This dissertation studies China’s energy policy since the “Go Out” strategy became the PRC’s “overarching national strategy”, having been put forward for the first time in the 5th Plenum of the 15th CPC Central Committee in October 2000 –despite having been de facto implemented since 1993. It focuses on the evolution of the PRC’s petroleum and biofuels policy from 2000 to 2010 and on the impact it has had on Brazilian and Argentine energy policy and exports of energy resources to China.
The study adopts an asymmetrical interdependent perspective within a South-South Cooperation analytical framework to argue that the role these countries have played as suppliers of fossil energy resources (petroleum) to the PRC throughout the observed period –role that can be defined as having been relatively modest in spite of having ranked as China’s top South American oil suppliers for most of it– has considerable potential to become significantly more relevant in the future, through the diversification of their energy exports to China based on the combination of fossil fuels and renewable energy resources (biofuels).
As regards the former, the study highlights the game-changing discovery of enormous ultra deep-water off-shore reserves in Brazil in 2007 and 2010 (Tupi-Lula and Libra, respectively, which are already turning Brazil into a major oil exporter) and of the gigantic shale energy formation of Vaca Muerta in Argentina in 2010. Regarding the latter, both Brazil and Argentina are leading producers and exporters of biofuels (sugar cane- based ethanol and soybean-based biodiesel, respectively). The remarkable progress that the PRC has made in the energy sectors of the analyzed countries –and in Latin America in general, showing the “asymmetry of attention” paid by China and the USA to the region is emphasized.
The research highlights the increasing importance that renewable energy resources are having in Chinese energy policy, due to both energy security and environmental concerns. It argues that the addition of clean energy resources to their exports to the PRC would benefit Brazil and Argentina by allowing them to diversify not only their export baskets (by adding more products to their exports to China, with the plus that these would have value added) and export destinations (adding the growing Chinese market while simultaneously reducing these countries’ dependence on traditional biofuel destinations such as the EU and the USA), but would also have positive effects for China’s fuel supply mix, contributing to make China’s transition to a low-carbon economy (or, at least, lower-carbon) shorter – as well as positive spillovers in their industrial structures.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Table of Contents

Acknowledgment _____________________________________________________ viii
伊薩卡島_______________________________________________________________ x
Ithaka-Ιθάκη __________________________________________________________xi
Abstract _____________________________________________________________xiii
Table of Contents _____________________________________________________ xv

Chapter 1 – China’s Energy Policy and South-South Cooperation
1.1. Problem Statement and Research Significance _______________________ 1
1.1.1. Context: South-South Cooperation (SSC)_________________________ 12
1.1.2. Historical Context and Chronology ______________________________15
1.1.3. South-South High Technology and Energy Cooperation______________17
1.1.4. Different Dimensions of SSC in Sino-Latin American Relations_______ 23
1.2. Literature Review_______________________________________________ 36
1.2.1 Literature on General Sino-Latin American Relations ________________38
1.2.1.1. Complementarity_____________________________________39
1.2.1.2. China’s Model of Economic Development as an Alternative___42
1.2.1.3. Diplomatic and Political Aspects_________________________43
1.2.2 Literature on Energy in Sino-Latin American Relations_______________44
1.2.2.1. China’s Reliance on Imported Energy_____________________45
1.2.1.2. NOCs: Domestic Constraints and Global Expansion, Economic
Growth, Environmental Sustainability & Renewable Energy___46
1.2.1.3. Latin American Perspectives___________________________ 53
1.3. Research Questions and Main Hypotheses___________________________ 58
1.4. Variables and Methodology _______________________________________60
1.5. Dissertation’s Outline ____________________________________________63
Chapter 2 – Complex Interdependence as Theoretical Foundation
2.1. “Complex Interdependence”(CID)_________________________________ 67
2.1.1. Concepts___________________________________________________ 82
2.1.2. Power ____________________________________________________ 83
2.1.3. Asymmetry _________________________________________________87
2.1.4. Interdependence (ID)_________________________________________ 90
2.1.4.1. CID and Interconnectedness ________________________________ 91
2.1.4.2. Joint Gains vs. Relative Gains _______________________________ 92
2.1.4.3. Dimensions of ID: Sensitivity and Vulnerability _________________92
2.2. Compensating Unfavourable Asymmetrical Interdependence __________ 96
2.2.1. Bargaining__________________________________________________ 97
2.2.1.1 Bargaining within a Producer-Consumer scheme _______________ 102
2.2.1.2 Bargaining: Importance of Soybeans vs Petroleum______________ 104
2.2.1.3 Soybeans as Foodstuffs ___________________________________ 107
2.2.1.4 Soybeans as Energy Crops _________________________________109
2.2.1.5 Benefits of Biodiesel for China______________________________111
2.2.2. Issue Linkages______________________________________________114
2.2.3. Diversification _____________________________________________ 115
2.3. Empirical Cases: _______________________________________________117
2.3.1. Embargoes as Restrictions to Trade_____________________________ 120
2.3.2. The 2004 Chinese Embargo to Brazil __________________________121
2.3.2.1 Historical Context ________________________________ 121
2.3.2.2 Precedents ______________________________________ 122
2.3.2.3 Motives_________________________________________122
2.3.2.4 Reaction of Brazil ________________________________ 123
2.3.2.5 Delegations _____________________________________ 124
2.3.2.6 Consequences ___________________________________ 126
2.3.3. The 2010 Chinese Embargo to Argentina___________________127
2.3.2.1. Historical Context________________________________ 127
2.3.2.2. Precedents _____________________________________ 129
2.3.2.3. Motives________________________________________ 132
2.3.2.4. Costs __________________________________________ 135
2.3.2.5. Presidential Apologies and Rising Tensions ___________ 136
2.3.2.6. New Antidumping Measures and Delegations __________138
2.3.2.7. Alternative Sources _______________________________ 139
2.3.2.8. State Visit ______________________________________ 141
2.3.2.9. Indications of a Solution ___________________________142
2.4 Concluding Remarks ____________________________________________ 144
Chapter 3 – China’s Energy Policy
3.1. China’s Energy Policy Overview: from Petroleum Self-Sufficiency to
Import Dependence ______________________________________________ 147
3.2. Main Actors in China’s Energy Sector: from “Governance” to
“Co-Governance”________________________________________________154
3.2.1. Asymmetric Power Distribution and Conflict of Interests____________155
3.2.2. Governmental Agencies ______________________________________156
3.2.3. China`s National Oil Companies: the NOCs ______________________ 162
3.2.4. International Expansion of the NOCs ___________________________ 164
3.2.5. Government and NOCs Objectives _____________________________ 169
3.2.6. Challenges to NOCs’ Competitiveness __________________________ 171
3.2.7. Overview of the NOCs _______________________________________175
3.2.8. CNPC (中國石油天然氣集團公司)____________________________ 176
3.2.9. Sinopec (中國石油化工集團公司)_____________________________ 179
3.2.10. CNOOC (中國海洋石油總公司)______________________________180
3.3. Energy Policy in China: Petroleum and Biofuels _____________________181
3.3.1. The “Go Out” Strategy (1993-2000)_____________________________183
3.3.2. The 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005) ___________________________ 185
3.3.3. The “Special Energy Plan” (2000) ______________________________186
3.3.4. “China’s Petroleum Strategies for the 21st century” (2002)___________187
3.3.5. The “Nine-Point Strategy” (2003) _____________________________ 189
3.3.6. The 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) ___________________________ 190
3.3.7. The “new energy security concept” (2006) _______________________193
3.3.8. White Paper on China’s Energy Conditions and Policies (2007) ______ 193
3.3.9. Policy Paper on Latin America (2008) __________________________ 195
3.3.10. Energy Policy Paper (2012) __________________________________195
3.3.11. China’s Biofuels Policy _____________________________________196
3.4. Chronological Analysis 2000-2010 ________________________________ 205
3.5. Concluding Remarks ___________________________________________ 237
Chapter 4 – Sino-Brazilian Energy Policy
4.1. Introduction___________________________________________________ 241
4.2. Sino-Brazilian Relations and South-South Cooperation_______________ 243
4.3. Brazil’s Energy Sector: Actors and Policy__________________________ 250
4.3.1. Petrobras__________________________________________________250
4.3.2. Petrobras and Biofuels _______________________________________257
4.3.3. Ethanol___________________________________________________ 258
4.3.4. Petrobras Biocombustível_____________________________________260
4.3.5. Biodiesel__________________________________________________262
4.3.6. National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP)________265
4.3.7. National Council of Energy Policy (CNPE) ______________________266
4.3.8. Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) __________________________266
4.4. Chronological Analysis _________________________________________267
4.5. Concluding Remarks __________________________________________ 297

Chapter 5 – Sino-Argentine Energy Policy
5.1. Introduction___________________________________________________301
5.2. Brief Overview of Sino-Argentine Relations ________________________306
5.3. Argentina’s Energy Sector: Actors and Policy______________________ 311
5.3.1. Ministry of Federal Planning and the Secretary of Energy ___________311
5.3.2. YPF _____________________________________________________ 314
5.3.3. ENARSA_________________________________________________ 319
5.3.4. Private Oil Companies_______________________________________ 320
5.3.5. Joint Ventures Chinese NOCs- Private Oil Companies in Argentina___ 321
5.3.6. The Argentine Biofuels Sector: Actors and Policies _______________ 322
5.4. Chronological Analysis _________________________________________327
5.5. Concluding Remarks __________________________________________ 363

Chapter 6 – US Reactions to Chinese Involvement in Brazil’s and Argentina’s Energy Sectors
6.1. Introduction___________________________________________________369
6.2. Overview of US and Chinese Approaches to Brazil and Argentina _____ 373
6.2.1. Asymmetry of Attention as reflected in Ambassadorial Attention______373
a) American Ambassadors to China, to Brazil and to Argentina ______374
b) Chinese Ambassadors to the US, to Brazil and to Argentina_______376
6.2.2. Asymmetry of Attention as reflected in Presidential Visits___________ 378
a) Brazilian Presidential Visits to the US (2000-2010)_____________ 387
b) Argentine Presidential Visits to the US (2000-2010)_____________388
6.3. Chronological Analysis of Brazil and Argentina as Energy Suppliers
to the US _____________________________________________________ 390
6.3.1. Brazil as a Petroleum Supplier to China and the US ________________395
6.3.2. Argentina as a Petroleum Supplier to China and the US_____________ 396
6.4. Concluding Remarks __________________________________________ 397

Chapter 7 – Conclusion
7.1. Conclusion___________________________________________________ 401

Tables and Figures
Tables
Table 2.1– China’s Top 10 Trading Partners (Exports and Imports) 2010_________________________ 70
Table 2.2– Brazil’s Top 5 Trading Partners: China’s Ascendance to Top Export Destination__________ 71
Table 2.3– Argentina’s Top 5 Trading Partners: China’s Ascendance to 2nd largest Export Destination __ 73
Table 2.4– Modest Relevance of Brazil and Argentina in China’s Total Trade _____________________ 74
Table 2.5– Economic Asymmetry between China, Brazil and Argentina Five Indicators______________78
Table 2.6– China’s Total Petroleum Imports: Relevance of Brazil and Argentina as Oil Suppliers ______99
Table 2.7– China’s Total Soybeans Imports: Relevance of Brazil and Argentina as Soybean Suppliers__101
Table 2.8– Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina Total Exports to China ____________________________102
Table 2.9– Brazil: Percentage of Petroleum, Soybeans and Soybean Oil exported to China___________104
Table 2.10– Argentina: Percentage of Petroleum, Soybeans and Soybean Oil exported to China_______105
Table 2.11– Comparative Analysis of the Chinese Embargoes to Brazil (2004) and Argentina (2010)__ 143

Table 3.1– Crude Oil Price per Barrel 2000-2010 (US$) ______________________________________153
Table 3.2– Specific Energy Indicators ____________________________________________________ 191

Table 6.1– US Ambassadors to Brazil 2000-2010___________________________________________ 375
Table 6.2– US Ambassadors to Argentina 2000-2010________________________________________ 376
Table 6.3– PRC Ambassadors to Brazil 2000-2010__________________________________________ 377
Table 6.4– PRC Ambassadors to Argentina 2000-2010_______________________________________ 377
Table 6.5– Visits by Chinese and American Presidents to Brazil and Argentina 2000-2010___________379
Table 6.6– Brazilian Presidential Visits to the US 2000-2010__________________________________ 387
Table 6.7– Argentine Presidential Visits to the US 2000-2010_________________________________ 389
Table 6.8– USA Total Petroleum Imports (% that the US gets from Brazil and Argentina)___________ 391
Figures
Figure 1.1– Variables__________________________________________________________________ 61

Figure 2.1– Brazil’s Top 5 Trading Partners: China’s Ascendance to Top Export Destination _________ 71
Figure 2.2– Argentina’s Top 5 Trading Partners: China’s Ascendance to 2nd largest Export Destination__72
Figure 2.3– Brazil: Percentage of Petroleum, Soybeans and Soybean Oil exported to China__________ 105
Figure 2.4– Argentina: Percentage of Petroleum, Soybeans and Soybean Oil exported to China _______107
Figure 2.5– Argentina: Percentage of Petroleum exported to China 2000-2003____________________ 107
Figure 2.6– Argentina: Percentage of Soybeans exported to China 2000-2003_____________________ 107

Figure 3.1– Evolution of Oil Price: US$ per barrel, 2000-2010_________________________________153
Figure 3.2– Main Actors in China’s Energy Sector – Governmental Agencies and NOCs ____________157
Figure 3.3– China’s Oil Imports from Brazil and Argentina 2000-2010__________________________ 205
Figure 3.4– Percentage (%) of Oil in Brazil’s and Argentina’s Total Exports to China_______________206
Figure 3.5– China’s Top 3 Oil Suppliers in Latin America (2000-2010) _________________________ 239
Figure 4.1– Evolution of China’s Petroleum Imports from Argentina 2000-2010 _________________268

Figure 5.1– Argentina`s Biodiesel Production and Exports 2007-2011___________________________ 323
Figure 5.2– Percentage of China’s Petroleum Imports from Argentina 2000-2010 __________________327

Figure 6.1– USA Total Petroleum Imports from Brazil and Argentina (%)_______________________ 390
Figure 6.2– Value of Brazil’s Oil Exports to China and the US 2000-2010 _______________________ 396
Figure 6.3– Value of Argentina’s Oil Exports to China and the US 2000-2010 ____________________ 396

Bibliography _______________________________________________________________________ 417

Newspapers and Magazines ___________________________________________________________434

Acronyms and Abbreviations_________________________________________________________ 435

List of Interviews conducted in China, Brazil and Argentina (2012-2013) _____________________423

Maps
Maps of Brazilian Offshore Oilfields_____________________________________________________ 425

Maps of Argentine Shale Oil and Gas Formation___________________________________________ 427

Annexes
Annex I –Policy Paper on Latin America (November 2008) __________________________________ 428

Annex II–White Paper on Energy Policy (October 2012) ____________________________________ 435		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097265504en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) N/Azh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Energyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Brazilen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Argentinaen_US
dc.title (題名) 中國的能源政策與南南合作? 比較分析中巴及中阿能源政策。zh_TW
dc.title (題名) China’s Energy Policy and South-South Cooperation? A Comparative Study between Sino-Brazilian and Sino-Argentine Energy Policy 2000-2010en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen