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題名 現金股利與盈餘品質之關聯
The Relation between Cash Dividend and the Quality of Earnings
作者 方胤馨
貢獻者 屠美亞
方胤馨
關鍵詞 盈餘品質
現金股利
日期 2013
上傳時間 21-七月-2014 15:37:40 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究主要探討盈餘品質與現金股利之間的關係。由過去的實證研究可以發現，股利可能無法傳遞未來盈餘的相關訊息。另外，根據訊號理論與代理問題，盈餘品質較差的公司可能需要透過發放股利釋放正面訊息給大眾降低資訊不對稱的問題。然而，盈餘品質較差的公司可能更需要將資金留在內部以備不時之需，若發放現金股利，可能導致公司資金不足須從事外部融資，然而可能因為盈餘品質不足而造成資金成本上升。
本研究以1990年至2012年美國公司作為研究對象，共計24,275筆樣本，進行上述研究。首先利用The Cross-Section Modified Jones Model估計可裁決性應計項目以作為盈餘品質指標。另外加入經營績效(ROA)、公司規模、前期營運現金流、成長機會、保留盈餘、營運風險、財務槓桿程度、外部融資為控制變數以進行迴歸分析。利用Tobit模型探討現金股利多寡是否受盈餘品質影響；另利用Logit模型分析公司發放現金股利與否是否受盈餘品質影響。
本研究發現，盈餘品質與現金股利之關係為負，不支持訊號理論及代理理論。顯示低盈餘品質公司，股利訊號理論和代理理論並不是經理人決定股利政策時的第一考量。公司在決定其股利政策時，可能先著眼於其經營績效、財務槓桿程度、投資機會等與公司現金流增減較為相關的因素。
參考文獻 中文文獻：
[1] 曾昭玲、周小玲(2007)，企業成長機會之於融資政策及股利政策影響之多期性研究，東吳大學商學學報。
[2] 薛敏正、林嬋娟(2004)，盈餘管理偵測模式比較研究：以國內財務困難公司為例，中華會計學刊，5(1)，105-130。
[3] 謝美緞(2010)，盈餘品質與公司股價之關聯，育達科大學報。

英文文獻：
[1] Aboody, A., J. Hughes, and J. Liu. 2005. Earnings quality, insider trading, and cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 43: 651–673.
[2] Aggarwal, R., J. Cao, and F. Chen. 2011. Information environment, dividend changes, and signalling: Evidence from ADR firms. Contemporary Accounting Research 29(2): 403-431
[3] Ali, A., and O. Urcan .2012.Dividend increases and future earnings. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics 19(1): 12-25.
[4] Al-Malkawi, H. N.. 2007. Determinants of Corporate Dividend Policy in Jordan: An Application of the Tobit Model. Journal of Economic & Administrative Sciences 23 (2): 44-70
[5] Barton, J., and G. Waymire. 2004. Investor protection under unregulated financial reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 38: 65–116.
[6] Bartov, E., F.A. Gul and J.S.L. Tsui. 2000. Discretionary-Accruals Models and Audit Qualifications. Journal of Accounting and Economics 30 (3): 421–452
[7] Benartzi, S., R. Michaely, and R. Thaler. 1997. Do changes in dividends signal the future or the past? The Journal of Finance 52: 1007–1034.
[8] Bhattacharya, S. 1979. Imperfect information, dividend policy, and “the bird in the hand” policy. The Bell Journal of Economics 10: 270–259.
[9] Biddle, G. C., and G. Hilary. 2006. Accounting quality and firm-level capital investment. Accounting Review 81 (5):963-982.
[10] Bowen, R., S. Rajgopal, and M. Venkatachalam. 2008. Accounting discretion, corporate governance and firm performance. Contemporary Accounting Research 25: 351–405.
[11] Brav, A., J. Graham, C. Harvey, and R. Michaely. 2005. Payout policy in 21st century. Journal of Financial Economics 77: 483–527.
[12] Caskey, J., and M. Hanlon. 2013. Dividend Policy at Firms Accused of Accounting Fraud Contemporary. Accounting Research 30 (2): 818-850
[13] Chen, S., T. Shevlin, and Y. Tong. 2007. Does the pricing of financial reporting quality change around dividend changes? Journal of Accounting Research 45: 1–40.
[14] Collins, D., E. Maydew, and I. Weiss. 1997. Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years. Journal of Accounting and Economics 14: 39–68.
[15] Daniel, N., D. Denis, and L. Naveen. 2008. Do firms manage earnings to meet dividend threshold? Journal of Accounting and Economics 45: 2–26.
[16] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner., 1996, Reversal of fortune: Dividend policy and the disappearance of sustained earnings growth, Journal of Financial Economics 40: 341-371.
[17] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner. 2000. Special dividends and the evolution of dividend signaling. Journal of Financial Economics 57: 309–354.
[18] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner. 2004. Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings. Journal of Financial Economics 72 (3): 425-456.
[19] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner. 2008. Corporate Payout Policy. Foundations and Trends in Finance 3: 95-287.
[20] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo,and R. Stulz. 2006. Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: A test of the life-cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics 81: 227–254.
[21] Dechow, P.,W. Ge, and C. Schrand. 2010. Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences. Journal of Accounting and Economics.
[22] Dechow, P., R. Sloan, and A. Sweeney. 1995. Detecting earnings managements. The Accounting Review 70:193–226.
[23] DeFond, M., and J. Jiambalvo. 1994. Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 17: 145–177.
[24] Easley,D., and M. O’Hara. 2004. Information and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 59: 1553-1583.
[25] Easterbrook, F. 1984. Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American Economic Review 74:650–659.
[26] Fama, E., and K. French. 2001. Disappearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay? Journal of Financial Economics 60: 3–43.
[27] Fluck, Z. 1998. Optimal financial contracting: Debt versus outside equity. Review of Financial Studies 11:383–418.
[28] Francis, J., R. LaFond, P. Olsson, and K. Schipper. 2005. The market pricing of accruals quality. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39: 295-327.
[29] Grullon, G., R. Michaely, S. Benartzi, and R. Thaler. 2005. Dividend changes do not signal changes in future profitability. The Journal of Business 78: 1659–1683.
[30] Grullon, G., R. Michaely, and B. Swaminathan. 2002. Are dividend changes a sign of firm maturity? The Journal of Business 75: 387–424.
[31] He, W., L. Ng, N. Zaiats, and B. Zhang. 2012. Do Dividends Signal Earnings Manipulation? 2012 China International Conference in Finance.
[32] Hribar, P., and C. Nichols. 2007. The use of unsigned earnings quality measures in tests of earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research 45: 1017–1053.
[33] Jagannathan, M., C. P. Stevens, and M. S. Weisbach. 2000. Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases. Journal of Financial Economics 57: 355–384.
[34] Leuz, C., and R. Verrecchia. 2004. Firm’s capital allocation choices, information quality, and the cost of capital. Working Paper.
[35] Miller, M., and F. Modigliani. 1961. Dividend policy, growth and the valuation of shares. The Journal of Business 34: 411–433.
[36] Miller, M., and F. Modigliani., and K. Rock. 1985. Dividend policy under asymmetric information. The Journal of Finance 40:1030–1051.
[37] Nissim, D., and A. Ziv. 2001. Dividend changes and future profitability. The Journal of Finance 56: 2111–2133.
[38] Rozeff, M. 1982. Growth, beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios. Journal of Financial Research 5: 249–259.
[39] Skinner, D. J. 2008. The evolving relation between earnings, dividends, and stock repurchases. Journal of Financial Economics 87: 582–609.
[40] Skinner, D. J., and E. Soltes. 2010. What do dividends tell us about earnings quality? Review of Accounting Studies.
[41] Sloan, R. 1996. Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? The Accounting Review 71: 289–315.
[42] Teoh, S., I. Welch, and T. Wong. 1998a. Earnings management and the long-run underperformance of seasoned equity offerings. Journal of Financial Economics 50: 63–100.
[43] Teoh, S., I. Welch, and T. Wong. 1998b. Earnings management and the long-run underperformance of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance 53: 1935–1974.
[44] Tong, Y. H., and B. Miao. 2011. Are Dividends associated with the Quality of Earnings? Accounting Horizons 25(1): 183-205.
[45] Watts, R. 1973. The information content of dividends. The Journal of Business 46: 191–211.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
101357012
102
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101357012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 屠美亞zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) 方胤馨zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 方胤馨zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2013en_US
dc.date.accessioned 21-七月-2014 15:37:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 21-七月-2014 15:37:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 21-七月-2014 15:37:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0101357012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67593-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 101357012zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究主要探討盈餘品質與現金股利之間的關係。由過去的實證研究可以發現，股利可能無法傳遞未來盈餘的相關訊息。另外，根據訊號理論與代理問題，盈餘品質較差的公司可能需要透過發放股利釋放正面訊息給大眾降低資訊不對稱的問題。然而，盈餘品質較差的公司可能更需要將資金留在內部以備不時之需，若發放現金股利，可能導致公司資金不足須從事外部融資，然而可能因為盈餘品質不足而造成資金成本上升。
本研究以1990年至2012年美國公司作為研究對象，共計24,275筆樣本，進行上述研究。首先利用The Cross-Section Modified Jones Model估計可裁決性應計項目以作為盈餘品質指標。另外加入經營績效(ROA)、公司規模、前期營運現金流、成長機會、保留盈餘、營運風險、財務槓桿程度、外部融資為控制變數以進行迴歸分析。利用Tobit模型探討現金股利多寡是否受盈餘品質影響；另利用Logit模型分析公司發放現金股利與否是否受盈餘品質影響。
本研究發現，盈餘品質與現金股利之關係為負，不支持訊號理論及代理理論。顯示低盈餘品質公司，股利訊號理論和代理理論並不是經理人決定股利政策時的第一考量。公司在決定其股利政策時，可能先著眼於其經營績效、財務槓桿程度、投資機會等與公司現金流增減較為相關的因素。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 致謝辭 iii
摘要 iv
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第一節 盈餘品質之觀念與相關定義 3
第二節 盈餘品質與融資成本之關係 7
第三節 股利政策 8
第四節 股利訊號效果實證文獻 9
第三章 研究方法 13
第一節 研究假說 13
第二節 樣本選取與資料來源 14
第三節 變數衡量 16
第四節 研究設計 23
第四章 實證結果與分析 27
第一節 敘述統計及相關性分析 27
第二節 研究結果 32
第五章 研究結論與建議 41
第一節 研究結論 41
第二節 研究限制 42
第三節 後續建議 43
參考文獻 44		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101357012en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘品質zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 現金股利zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 現金股利與盈餘品質之關聯zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Relation between Cash Dividend and the Quality of Earningsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻：
[1] 曾昭玲、周小玲(2007)，企業成長機會之於融資政策及股利政策影響之多期性研究，東吳大學商學學報。
[2] 薛敏正、林嬋娟(2004)，盈餘管理偵測模式比較研究：以國內財務困難公司為例，中華會計學刊，5(1)，105-130。
[3] 謝美緞(2010)，盈餘品質與公司股價之關聯，育達科大學報。

英文文獻：
[1] Aboody, A., J. Hughes, and J. Liu. 2005. Earnings quality, insider trading, and cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 43: 651–673.
[2] Aggarwal, R., J. Cao, and F. Chen. 2011. Information environment, dividend changes, and signalling: Evidence from ADR firms. Contemporary Accounting Research 29(2): 403-431
[3] Ali, A., and O. Urcan .2012.Dividend increases and future earnings. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics 19(1): 12-25.
[4] Al-Malkawi, H. N.. 2007. Determinants of Corporate Dividend Policy in Jordan: An Application of the Tobit Model. Journal of Economic & Administrative Sciences 23 (2): 44-70
[5] Barton, J., and G. Waymire. 2004. Investor protection under unregulated financial reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 38: 65–116.
[6] Bartov, E., F.A. Gul and J.S.L. Tsui. 2000. Discretionary-Accruals Models and Audit Qualifications. Journal of Accounting and Economics 30 (3): 421–452
[7] Benartzi, S., R. Michaely, and R. Thaler. 1997. Do changes in dividends signal the future or the past? The Journal of Finance 52: 1007–1034.
[8] Bhattacharya, S. 1979. Imperfect information, dividend policy, and “the bird in the hand” policy. The Bell Journal of Economics 10: 270–259.
[9] Biddle, G. C., and G. Hilary. 2006. Accounting quality and firm-level capital investment. Accounting Review 81 (5):963-982.
[10] Bowen, R., S. Rajgopal, and M. Venkatachalam. 2008. Accounting discretion, corporate governance and firm performance. Contemporary Accounting Research 25: 351–405.
[11] Brav, A., J. Graham, C. Harvey, and R. Michaely. 2005. Payout policy in 21st century. Journal of Financial Economics 77: 483–527.
[12] Caskey, J., and M. Hanlon. 2013. Dividend Policy at Firms Accused of Accounting Fraud Contemporary. Accounting Research 30 (2): 818-850
[13] Chen, S., T. Shevlin, and Y. Tong. 2007. Does the pricing of financial reporting quality change around dividend changes? Journal of Accounting Research 45: 1–40.
[14] Collins, D., E. Maydew, and I. Weiss. 1997. Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years. Journal of Accounting and Economics 14: 39–68.
[15] Daniel, N., D. Denis, and L. Naveen. 2008. Do firms manage earnings to meet dividend threshold? Journal of Accounting and Economics 45: 2–26.
[16] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner., 1996, Reversal of fortune: Dividend policy and the disappearance of sustained earnings growth, Journal of Financial Economics 40: 341-371.
[17] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner. 2000. Special dividends and the evolution of dividend signaling. Journal of Financial Economics 57: 309–354.
[18] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner. 2004. Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings. Journal of Financial Economics 72 (3): 425-456.
[19] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. Skinner. 2008. Corporate Payout Policy. Foundations and Trends in Finance 3: 95-287.
[20] DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo,and R. Stulz. 2006. Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: A test of the life-cycle theory. Journal of Financial Economics 81: 227–254.
[21] Dechow, P.,W. Ge, and C. Schrand. 2010. Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences. Journal of Accounting and Economics.
[22] Dechow, P., R. Sloan, and A. Sweeney. 1995. Detecting earnings managements. The Accounting Review 70:193–226.
[23] DeFond, M., and J. Jiambalvo. 1994. Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 17: 145–177.
[24] Easley,D., and M. O’Hara. 2004. Information and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 59: 1553-1583.
[25] Easterbrook, F. 1984. Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American Economic Review 74:650–659.
[26] Fama, E., and K. French. 2001. Disappearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay? Journal of Financial Economics 60: 3–43.
[27] Fluck, Z. 1998. Optimal financial contracting: Debt versus outside equity. Review of Financial Studies 11:383–418.
[28] Francis, J., R. LaFond, P. Olsson, and K. Schipper. 2005. The market pricing of accruals quality. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39: 295-327.
[29] Grullon, G., R. Michaely, S. Benartzi, and R. Thaler. 2005. Dividend changes do not signal changes in future profitability. The Journal of Business 78: 1659–1683.
[30] Grullon, G., R. Michaely, and B. Swaminathan. 2002. Are dividend changes a sign of firm maturity? The Journal of Business 75: 387–424.
[31] He, W., L. Ng, N. Zaiats, and B. Zhang. 2012. Do Dividends Signal Earnings Manipulation? 2012 China International Conference in Finance.
[32] Hribar, P., and C. Nichols. 2007. The use of unsigned earnings quality measures in tests of earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research 45: 1017–1053.
[33] Jagannathan, M., C. P. Stevens, and M. S. Weisbach. 2000. Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases. Journal of Financial Economics 57: 355–384.
[34] Leuz, C., and R. Verrecchia. 2004. Firm’s capital allocation choices, information quality, and the cost of capital. Working Paper.
[35] Miller, M., and F. Modigliani. 1961. Dividend policy, growth and the valuation of shares. The Journal of Business 34: 411–433.
[36] Miller, M., and F. Modigliani., and K. Rock. 1985. Dividend policy under asymmetric information. The Journal of Finance 40:1030–1051.
[37] Nissim, D., and A. Ziv. 2001. Dividend changes and future profitability. The Journal of Finance 56: 2111–2133.
[38] Rozeff, M. 1982. Growth, beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios. Journal of Financial Research 5: 249–259.
[39] Skinner, D. J. 2008. The evolving relation between earnings, dividends, and stock repurchases. Journal of Financial Economics 87: 582–609.
[40] Skinner, D. J., and E. Soltes. 2010. What do dividends tell us about earnings quality? Review of Accounting Studies.
[41] Sloan, R. 1996. Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? The Accounting Review 71: 289–315.
[42] Teoh, S., I. Welch, and T. Wong. 1998a. Earnings management and the long-run underperformance of seasoned equity offerings. Journal of Financial Economics 50: 63–100.
[43] Teoh, S., I. Welch, and T. Wong. 1998b. Earnings management and the long-run underperformance of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance 53: 1935–1974.
[44] Tong, Y. H., and B. Miao. 2011. Are Dividends associated with the Quality of Earnings? Accounting Horizons 25(1): 183-205.
[45] Watts, R. 1973. The information content of dividends. The Journal of Business 46: 191–211.		zh_TW