學術產出-學位論文
文章檢視/開啟
書目匯出
-
題名 管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性
The Relationship between Managerial Ability作者 張祐瑄 貢獻者 金成隆
張祐瑄關鍵詞 管理當局能力
分析師追隨人數
分析師預測精確度
分析師預測離散程度日期 2013 上傳時間 29-七月-2014 16:02:25 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究以我國2000至2012年的上市櫃公司為研究對象，探討管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測行為的關係，預測行為迴歸模型以分析師追蹤人數、分析師盈餘預測準確性及預測離散度三種特性進行分析。本研究預期，當管理當局能力好，分析師相信該公司將提供可靠性之財務報導，故其追蹤意願提高，且分析師盈餘預測結果將愈接近實際值，彼此間之預測亦趨於一致。\n研究結果發現，管理當局能力與分析師追蹤人數、盈餘預測精確度皆呈現顯著正相關，與預測離散程度則為負相關，代表經理人能力較佳，分析師對該公司之追蹤意願較高，且盈餘預測誤差與預測離散度較低。本研究藉此結果推論，管理當局能力愈佳之企業，經理人越會提供品質良好、具可靠性的財務報導，故分析師將愈信賴該公司所提供之資訊，並可幫助分析師做出更精準之盈餘預測，並降低彼此間之預測誤差。 參考文獻 王韶濱與許明曄，2011，資訊透明度與財務分析師預測行為，當代會計，第12卷第2期：115-148。\n汪進揚與余俊憲，2004，財務分析師盈餘預測誤差與預測行為影響因素之\n研究，證券市場發展季刊，第64 期：117-144。\n李建然與周俊德，2002，管理當局信譽與自願性盈餘預測資訊內涵關係之研究，會計評論，第34期：77-99。\n吳安妮，1993，財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式預測準確度之比較研\n究，管理評論，第12卷第1期：1-48。\n陳瑞斌、劉立倫、翁慈青，2006，公司治理與分析師預測誤差／離散性關係之研究，台灣金融財務季刊，第7卷，第3期：53-93。\n程心瑤與蔡宜芬，2006，分析師預測與管理當局預測對於企業評價之相對有用性：發佈時機與先後順序，會計評論，第42期：81-107。\nAckert, F., G. Athanassakos. 1997. Prior Uncertainty, Analyst Bias, and Subsequent Abnormal Returns. Journal of Financial Reserch 20: 263-273.\nAier, J., J. Comprix, M. Gunlock, and D. Lee. 2005. The financial expertise of CFOs and accounting restatements. Accounting Horizons 19 (3): 123-135.\nBaik, B., D. Farber, and S. Lee. 2011. CEO ability and management earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 28 (5): 1645-1668.\nBamber, L., J. Jiang, and I. Wang. 2010. What’s my style? The influence of top managers on voluntary corporate financial disclosure. The Accounting Review 85 (4): 1131-1162.\nBarron, O. E., and P. S. Stuerke. 1998. Dispersion in Analyst’ earnings forecasts\nas a measure of uncertainty. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 13(Summer): 245-270.\nBarron, O. E., O. Kim, s.c. Lim., and D. E. Stevens, 1998. Using analysts’ forecasts to measure properties of analysts, information environment. The Accounting Review 73 (October): 421-433\nBarron, O. E., C. O. Kile, and T. B. O’Kcelo. 1999. MD&A quality as measured by the SEC and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research: 75-109. \nBarry, C. and S. Brown. 1985. Differential Information and Security Market\nEquilibrium. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 20:407-422.\nBeaver, W. 1998. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution (3rd ed.). New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.\nBeaver, W. H. 2002. Perspectives on recent capital market research. The\nAccounting Review 77:453-474.\nBertrand, M., and A. Schoar. 2003. Managing with style: The effect of managers on firm policies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics: 1169-1208.\nBhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11: 255-274.\nBushman, R.M. and A.J. Smith. 2001. Financial accounting information and\ncorporate governance. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31: 237-333.\nBrown.G. Richardson, and S. Schwager. 1987. An information interpretation of\nfinancial analyst superiority in forecasting earnings. Journal of Accounting\nResearch 25 (Spring): 49-67.\nByard, Donal, Kenneth W. Shaw. Corporate disclosure quality and properties of analysts’ information environment’ working paper. SSRN. November 4, 2002.\nDas, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73(Apirl) : 277-294.\nDechow, P., and I. Dichev. 2002. The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors. The Accounting Review 77 (4): 35-59.\nDeFond, M., Jiambalvo, J., 1994. Debt covenant effects and the manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 18, 145-76.\nDemerjian, P., B. Lev, and S. McVay. 2012. Quantifying managerial ability: A new measure and validity tests. Management Science 58 (7): 1229-1248.\nDemerjian, P., B. Lev, Melissa F. Lewis, and Sarah E. McVay. 2013. Managerial ability and earnings quality. The Accounting Review 88 (2):463-498. \nDreman, D. N. and M. A. Berry. 1995. Analyst forecasting errors and\nimplications for security analysis. Financial Analysts Journal (May):30-41.\nEasterwood, J. C. and S. R. Nutt. 1999. Inefficiency in Analysts’ earinings forecasts: systematic misreaction or systematic optimism? The Journal of Finance 51:55-84.\nFee, C., and C. Hadlock. 2003. Raids, rewards, and reputations in the market for managerial talent. Review of Financial Studies 16 (4): 1315-1357.\nFrancis, J., A. Huang, S. Rajgopal, and A. Zang. 2008. CEO reputation and earnings quality. Contemporary Accounting Research 25 (1): 109-147.\nGe, W., D. Matsumoto, and J. Zhang. 2011. Do CFOs have style? An empirical investigation of the effect of individual CFOs on accounting practices. Contemporary Accounting Research 28 (4): 1141-1179.\nGivoly, D. and J. Lakonishok. 1979. The information content of cinancial\nanalysts’ forecasts of earing – some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics 1:165-185\nHan, B.H., D. Manry, and W. Shaw.2001. Improving the precision of analysts` earnings forecasts by adjusting for predictable bias. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 17 (1): 81-98.\nHansen, G.A. and Noe C.F. 1998. Do manager’ accrual decisions speak louder than words? Journal of Accounting and Economics 7 (April):85-107.\nHealy, Paul M., Amy P. Hutton, and Krishna G. Palepu. 1999. Stock performance and intermediation changes surroundings sustained increase in disclosure, Contemporary Accounting Research 16(Fall): 485-520\nHealy, P., and K. Palepu. 2001. Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of accounting and Economics 31: 405-440.\nHolthausen and Watts. 2001. The relevance of the value-relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (May): 3-75.\nHope, O. K. 2003. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts’ forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 20 (2): 295-321. \nImhoff, E. A. Jr. and G. J. Lobo. 1992. The effect of ex ante earnings uncertainty on earnings response coefficients. The Accounting Review (April): 427-439.\nKross, W., B. T. Ro, and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings expectations: the\nanalyst’s information advantage. The Accounting Review 65(April):461-476.\nLang, M. H., and R. J. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71 (4): 467-492.\nLang, M. H., K. V. Lins, and D. P. Miller. 2004. Concentrated control, analyst following, and valuation: Do analysts matter most when investors are protected least? Journal of Accounting Research 42 (June): 589-623.\nLeverty, T., M. Grace. 2012. Dupes or incompetents? An examination of management’s impact on firm distress. J. Risk Insurance. Forthcoming.\nMarquardt, C. A., C. I. Wiedman, and M. Welker. 1998. Voluntary disclosure, \ninformation asymmetry, and insider selling through secondary equity offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 15: 505-537\nMilbourn, T. 2003. CEO reputation and stock-based compensation. Journal of Financial Economics 68:233-262.\nO’Brien, P. and R. Bhushan. 1990. Analyst following and institutional ownership. Journal of Accounting Research (28): 55-76. \nRajgopal, S., T. Shevlin, and V. Zamora. 2006. CEOs’ outside employment opportunities and the lack of relative performance evaluation in compensation contracts. The Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1813-44.\nRamnath, S., S. Rock and P. Shane. 2008. The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggesting for further research. International Journal of Forecasting 24: 1-28.\nRogers, R., and J. Grant. 1997. Content analysis of information cited in reports of sell-side financial analysts. Journal of Financial Statement Analysis 3: 17-30.\nSchipper, K. 1991. Analysts` forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5: 105-131.\nSedor, L. M. 2002. An explanation for unintentional optimism in Analysts` earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 77 (4): 731-753\nTrueman, B. 1986. Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts? Journal of Accounting and Economics 8 (1): 53-71. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
101353051
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101353051 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 金成隆 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 張祐瑄 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 張祐瑄 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 29-七月-2014 16:02:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 29-七月-2014 16:02:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-七月-2014 16:02:25 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0101353051 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=76212 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101353051 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以我國2000至2012年的上市櫃公司為研究對象，探討管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測行為的關係，預測行為迴歸模型以分析師追蹤人數、分析師盈餘預測準確性及預測離散度三種特性進行分析。本研究預期，當管理當局能力好，分析師相信該公司將提供可靠性之財務報導，故其追蹤意願提高，且分析師盈餘預測結果將愈接近實際值，彼此間之預測亦趨於一致。\n研究結果發現，管理當局能力與分析師追蹤人數、盈餘預測精確度皆呈現顯著正相關，與預測離散程度則為負相關，代表經理人能力較佳，分析師對該公司之追蹤意願較高，且盈餘預測誤差與預測離散度較低。本研究藉此結果推論，管理當局能力愈佳之企業，經理人越會提供品質良好、具可靠性的財務報導，故分析師將愈信賴該公司所提供之資訊，並可幫助分析師做出更精準之盈餘預測，並降低彼此間之預測誤差。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、前言 1\n第一節 研究動機與目的 1\n第二節 研究架構 4\n貳、文獻探討 5\n第一節 管理當局能力之相關文獻 5\n第二節 分析師盈餘預測行為與預測品質 7\n參、研究設計 12\n第一節 研究假說 12\n第二節 資料來源與樣本篩選 14\n第三節 實證模型與變數衡量 16\n肆、實證結果與分析 24\n第一節 樣本產業分配情況 24\n第二節 敘述性統計量 26\n第三節 相關係數分析 29\n第四節 迴歸結果分析 34\n第五節 增額測試 43\n第六節 敏感性測試 49\n伍、結論與建議 52\n第一節 結論 52\n第二節 研究限制與建議 54\n參考文獻 55 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101353051 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 管理當局能力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師追隨人數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師預測精確度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師預測離散程度 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Relationship between Managerial Ability en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王韶濱與許明曄，2011，資訊透明度與財務分析師預測行為，當代會計，第12卷第2期：115-148。\n汪進揚與余俊憲，2004，財務分析師盈餘預測誤差與預測行為影響因素之\n研究，證券市場發展季刊，第64 期：117-144。\n李建然與周俊德，2002，管理當局信譽與自願性盈餘預測資訊內涵關係之研究，會計評論，第34期：77-99。\n吳安妮，1993，財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式預測準確度之比較研\n究，管理評論，第12卷第1期：1-48。\n陳瑞斌、劉立倫、翁慈青，2006，公司治理與分析師預測誤差／離散性關係之研究，台灣金融財務季刊，第7卷，第3期：53-93。\n程心瑤與蔡宜芬，2006，分析師預測與管理當局預測對於企業評價之相對有用性：發佈時機與先後順序，會計評論，第42期：81-107。\nAckert, F., G. Athanassakos. 1997. Prior Uncertainty, Analyst Bias, and Subsequent Abnormal Returns. Journal of Financial Reserch 20: 263-273.\nAier, J., J. Comprix, M. Gunlock, and D. Lee. 2005. The financial expertise of CFOs and accounting restatements. Accounting Horizons 19 (3): 123-135.\nBaik, B., D. Farber, and S. Lee. 2011. CEO ability and management earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 28 (5): 1645-1668.\nBamber, L., J. Jiang, and I. Wang. 2010. What’s my style? The influence of top managers on voluntary corporate financial disclosure. The Accounting Review 85 (4): 1131-1162.\nBarron, O. E., and P. S. Stuerke. 1998. Dispersion in Analyst’ earnings forecasts\nas a measure of uncertainty. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 13(Summer): 245-270.\nBarron, O. E., O. Kim, s.c. Lim., and D. E. Stevens, 1998. Using analysts’ forecasts to measure properties of analysts, information environment. The Accounting Review 73 (October): 421-433\nBarron, O. E., C. O. Kile, and T. B. O’Kcelo. 1999. MD&A quality as measured by the SEC and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research: 75-109. \nBarry, C. and S. Brown. 1985. Differential Information and Security Market\nEquilibrium. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 20:407-422.\nBeaver, W. 1998. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution (3rd ed.). New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.\nBeaver, W. H. 2002. Perspectives on recent capital market research. The\nAccounting Review 77:453-474.\nBertrand, M., and A. Schoar. 2003. Managing with style: The effect of managers on firm policies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics: 1169-1208.\nBhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11: 255-274.\nBushman, R.M. and A.J. Smith. 2001. Financial accounting information and\ncorporate governance. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31: 237-333.\nBrown.G. Richardson, and S. Schwager. 1987. An information interpretation of\nfinancial analyst superiority in forecasting earnings. Journal of Accounting\nResearch 25 (Spring): 49-67.\nByard, Donal, Kenneth W. Shaw. Corporate disclosure quality and properties of analysts’ information environment’ working paper. SSRN. November 4, 2002.\nDas, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73(Apirl) : 277-294.\nDechow, P., and I. Dichev. 2002. The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors. The Accounting Review 77 (4): 35-59.\nDeFond, M., Jiambalvo, J., 1994. Debt covenant effects and the manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 18, 145-76.\nDemerjian, P., B. Lev, and S. McVay. 2012. Quantifying managerial ability: A new measure and validity tests. Management Science 58 (7): 1229-1248.\nDemerjian, P., B. Lev, Melissa F. Lewis, and Sarah E. McVay. 2013. Managerial ability and earnings quality. The Accounting Review 88 (2):463-498. \nDreman, D. N. and M. A. Berry. 1995. Analyst forecasting errors and\nimplications for security analysis. Financial Analysts Journal (May):30-41.\nEasterwood, J. C. and S. R. Nutt. 1999. Inefficiency in Analysts’ earinings forecasts: systematic misreaction or systematic optimism? The Journal of Finance 51:55-84.\nFee, C., and C. Hadlock. 2003. Raids, rewards, and reputations in the market for managerial talent. Review of Financial Studies 16 (4): 1315-1357.\nFrancis, J., A. Huang, S. Rajgopal, and A. Zang. 2008. CEO reputation and earnings quality. Contemporary Accounting Research 25 (1): 109-147.\nGe, W., D. Matsumoto, and J. Zhang. 2011. Do CFOs have style? An empirical investigation of the effect of individual CFOs on accounting practices. Contemporary Accounting Research 28 (4): 1141-1179.\nGivoly, D. and J. Lakonishok. 1979. The information content of cinancial\nanalysts’ forecasts of earing – some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics 1:165-185\nHan, B.H., D. Manry, and W. Shaw.2001. Improving the precision of analysts` earnings forecasts by adjusting for predictable bias. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 17 (1): 81-98.\nHansen, G.A. and Noe C.F. 1998. Do manager’ accrual decisions speak louder than words? Journal of Accounting and Economics 7 (April):85-107.\nHealy, Paul M., Amy P. Hutton, and Krishna G. Palepu. 1999. Stock performance and intermediation changes surroundings sustained increase in disclosure, Contemporary Accounting Research 16(Fall): 485-520\nHealy, P., and K. Palepu. 2001. Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of accounting and Economics 31: 405-440.\nHolthausen and Watts. 2001. The relevance of the value-relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (May): 3-75.\nHope, O. K. 2003. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts’ forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 20 (2): 295-321. \nImhoff, E. A. Jr. and G. J. Lobo. 1992. The effect of ex ante earnings uncertainty on earnings response coefficients. The Accounting Review (April): 427-439.\nKross, W., B. T. Ro, and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings expectations: the\nanalyst’s information advantage. The Accounting Review 65(April):461-476.\nLang, M. H., and R. J. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71 (4): 467-492.\nLang, M. H., K. V. Lins, and D. P. Miller. 2004. Concentrated control, analyst following, and valuation: Do analysts matter most when investors are protected least? Journal of Accounting Research 42 (June): 589-623.\nLeverty, T., M. Grace. 2012. Dupes or incompetents? An examination of management’s impact on firm distress. J. Risk Insurance. Forthcoming.\nMarquardt, C. A., C. I. Wiedman, and M. Welker. 1998. Voluntary disclosure, \ninformation asymmetry, and insider selling through secondary equity offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 15: 505-537\nMilbourn, T. 2003. CEO reputation and stock-based compensation. Journal of Financial Economics 68:233-262.\nO’Brien, P. and R. Bhushan. 1990. Analyst following and institutional ownership. Journal of Accounting Research (28): 55-76. \nRajgopal, S., T. Shevlin, and V. Zamora. 2006. CEOs’ outside employment opportunities and the lack of relative performance evaluation in compensation contracts. The Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1813-44.\nRamnath, S., S. Rock and P. Shane. 2008. The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggesting for further research. International Journal of Forecasting 24: 1-28.\nRogers, R., and J. Grant. 1997. Content analysis of information cited in reports of sell-side financial analysts. Journal of Financial Statement Analysis 3: 17-30.\nSchipper, K. 1991. Analysts` forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5: 105-131.\nSedor, L. M. 2002. An explanation for unintentional optimism in Analysts` earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 77 (4): 731-753\nTrueman, B. 1986. Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts? Journal of Accounting and Economics 8 (1): 53-71. zh_TW
