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題名 運用累積展望理論於創新服務之適當期調整
An Application of Cumulative Prospect Theory to Appropriate Expectation Positioning of New Service
作者 王席筠
Wang, Hsi Yun
貢獻者 苑守慈
Yuan, Soe Tysr
王席筠
Wang, Hsi Yun
關鍵詞 顧客期望
行為經濟學
行為改變
心理價值
累積展望理論
Customer Expectations
Behavior Economics
Behavior Change
Psychological value
Cumulative Prospect Theory
日期 2013
上傳時間 29-七月-2014 16:03:57 (UTC+8)
摘要 在服務創新的時代，如何衡量以個人化的方式衡量新服務的價值是尚未被清楚定義的。尤其在涉及促進創新服務的有效性以及面臨決策時是處於不確定且具風險的情況下，個人化衡量顯得更為重要。舉例而言，服務提供商如何管理其服務質量並維持其競爭力；服務接收者如何有效且準確的衡量是否接受該創新服務。因此，本研究提出定位適當期望的機制與資訊系統設計，目的是滿足與服務相關之所有利害關係人的期望效益。收集服務接收者的心理資訊，換算其心理價值及機率權重來衡量決策效益。實現提供適當期望之目的，並獲取最大效益。
In the era of service innovation, the question of when to evaluate which innovation services and how to achieve personalized evaluation is still not clear. This is especially true under the situations of uncertainty and risk when it comes to bringing the effectiveness of service innovation promotion and decision making, i.e., for service providers to retain service quality and competitiveness and for service receivers to efficiently and accurately decide whether to try new service. Therefore, an appropriate expectation positioning mechanism proposed in this study aims to collect psychological information from service receivers to make service promotion decisions capable of achieving each stakeholder’s purposes as well as satisfying service receivers, utilizing the psychological information of psychological values and probability weights.
參考文獻 [1] Abernathy, W. J. (1978). The productivity dilemma: Roadblock to innovation in the automobile industry. Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore, MD.
[2] Alan, R. H., Salvatore, T. M., Jinsoo, P., and Sudha, R. (2004). Design science in information systems research. MIS QUART, 28 (1), 75-105.
[3] Australian Federation of AIDS Organisations (AFAO) (1996). What do they want us to do now?
[4] Bandura, A. and D. C. McClelland (1977). Social learning theory. Prentice-Hall Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
[5] Bernoulli, D. (Originally published in 1738); translated by Dr. Louise Sommer. (1954). Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk. Econometrica (The Econometric Society. 22 (1) 23-36.
[6] C. Bonomelli (2010). Innovation and Industry Life Cycle: the Case of US Tire Industry (1901-1930).
[7] Courtney, H., J. Kirkland, et al. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75: 67-79.
[8] Design Council (2005). The design process. http://www.designcouncil.org.uk/designprocess
[9] DiClemente CC, Schlundt D, Gemmell L. (2004). Readiness and stages of change in addiction treatment. Journal on Addictions. Mar-Apr;13(2):103-19
[10] DiClemente, C. C. and J. O. Prochaska (1998). Toward a comprehensive, transtheoretical model of change: Stages of change and addictive behaviors. Plenum Press.
[11] Dwayne D. G. (2001), Customer expectations of service. McGraw Hill.
[12] Feinberg, J. (1978). Psychological egoisms. In Reason & Responsibility: Readings in Some Basic Problems of Philosophy, edited by Joel Feinberg and Russ Shafer-Landau, 520-532.
[13] Fellner, W. (1961). Two propositions in the theory of induced innovations. The Economic Journal, 71: 305-308.
[14] Glanz, K., B. K. Rimer, et al. (2008). Health behavior and health education: theory, research, and practice. John Wiley & Sons.
[15] Gonzalez, R. and G. Wu (1999). On the shape of the probability weighting function. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Cognitive Psychology 38: 129–166.
[16] Hammond, K. R. (1996) Human judgment and social policy. Oxford University
Press.
[17] Heskett, J. L. and L. A. Schlesinger (1994). Putting the Service-Profit Chain to Work. Harvard Business Review. 72: 164-174.
[18] Hershey, J. C. and P. J. H. Schoemaker (1985). Probability versus certainty equivalence methods in utility measurement: Are they equivalent? Management Science, 31: 1213-1231.
[19] Helson, H. (1964). Adaptation-level theory: an experimental and systematic approach to behavior. Harper & Row.
[20] Johnson, S. P., L. J. Menor, et al. (2000). A critical evaluation of the new service development process. SAGE, 1-32.
[21] Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
[22] Kahneman D. and A. Tversky (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychological Association, 39: 341.
[23] Kahneman, D. and S. Frederick (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment, 49-81.
[24] Kahneman, Daniel (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.
[25] Kahn, B. E. and R. K. Sarin (1998). Modeling ambiguity in decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Consumer Research, 265-272.
[26] Kirkwood, C. W. (2002). Decision tree primer. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ for further details.
[27] Krzysztofowicz, R. and L. Duckstein (1980). Assessment errors in multiattribute utility functions. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26(3), 326-348.
[28] Lleras, K. S. (2012). Asymmetric Gain/Loss Preferences: Beliefs and Endogenous Reference Point Determination.
[29] Logvinenko, A. D., J. Kane, et al. (2002). Is lightness induction a pictorial illusion?. PION LTD. 31: 72-82.
[30] Müller-Lyer, F. C. (1889) Optische Urteilstauschungen (optical illusions). Archiv fur Anatomie und Physiologie, Physiologische Abteilung, 2, 263-270.
[31] Parasuraman, A., V. A. Zeithaml, & L. L. Berry (1985). A conceptual model of service quality and its implications for future research. Journal of Marketing, 49, 41-50.
[32] Parasuraman, A., V. A. Zeithaml, et al. (1988). SERVQUAL. Journal of retailing, 64: 12-40.
[33] Patten, S.,Vollman, A., & Thurston,W. (2000).The utility of the transtheoretical
model of behavior change for HIV risk reduction in injection drug users. Journal of the Association of Nurses in AIDS Care, 11(1), 57-66.
[34] Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. Mcgraw-Hill Book Company.
[35] Porter, M. E. (1986). Competition in global industries. Harvard Business Press.
[36] Prochaska, J., DiClemente, C., & Norcross, J. (1992). In search of how people
change: Applications to addictive behaviors. Journal of Addictions Nursing, 47(9), 1002-1114.
[37] Prochaska, J.O. Johnson, S, & Lee, P. (1998). The Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change. The Handbook of Health Behavior Change (Second Edition), 12: 38-48.
[38] Quiggin, J. (1985). Subjective utility, anticipated utility, and the Allais paradox. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 94-101.
[39] Reid Hastie and Robyn M. Dawes (2001). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. SAGE, 195.
[40] Richard H. Thaler (1999). Mental Accounting Matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12: 183-206.
[41] S. Charles Maurice, Christopher R. T. (2001). Managerial Economics. McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
[42] Scheufele, D. A. (1999). Framing as a theory of media effects. Journal of communication. 49: 103-122
[43] Scholl, B. J. and K. Nakayama (2002) Causal capture: Contextual effects on the perception of collision events. Psychological Science, 13: 493-498.
[44] Sheth J. N., B. I. Newman, et al. (1991). Why we buy what we buy: a theory of consumption values. Journal of business research, 22: 159-170.
[45] Stanovich, K. E. and R. F. West (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and brain sciences. 23: 645-665.
[46] Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and uncertainty. 5:297-323.
[47] Vroom, V. H. (1964). Work and motivation. Wiley.
[48] Zeithaml, V. A. (1988) Consumer perceptions of price, quality, and value: a means-end model and synthesis of evidence. Journal of Marketing, 52: 2-22.
[49] Zipf, G. K. (1949). Human behavior and the principle of least effort. Addison-Wesley Press.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
101356024
102
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101356024
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 苑守慈zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yuan, Soe Tysren_US
dc.contributor.author (作者) 王席筠zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (作者) Wang, Hsi Yunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 王席筠zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wang, Hsi Yunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2013en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-七月-2014 16:03:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-七月-2014 16:03:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-七月-2014 16:03:57 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0101356024en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67864-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 101356024zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在服務創新的時代，如何衡量以個人化的方式衡量新服務的價值是尚未被清楚定義的。尤其在涉及促進創新服務的有效性以及面臨決策時是處於不確定且具風險的情況下，個人化衡量顯得更為重要。舉例而言，服務提供商如何管理其服務質量並維持其競爭力；服務接收者如何有效且準確的衡量是否接受該創新服務。因此，本研究提出定位適當期望的機制與資訊系統設計，目的是滿足與服務相關之所有利害關係人的期望效益。收集服務接收者的心理資訊，換算其心理價值及機率權重來衡量決策效益。實現提供適當期望之目的，並獲取最大效益。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the era of service innovation, the question of when to evaluate which innovation services and how to achieve personalized evaluation is still not clear. This is especially true under the situations of uncertainty and risk when it comes to bringing the effectiveness of service innovation promotion and decision making, i.e., for service providers to retain service quality and competitiveness and for service receivers to efficiently and accurately decide whether to try new service. Therefore, an appropriate expectation positioning mechanism proposed in this study aims to collect psychological information from service receivers to make service promotion decisions capable of achieving each stakeholder’s purposes as well as satisfying service receivers, utilizing the psychological information of psychological values and probability weights.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 13
1.1 BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION 13
1.2 RESEARCH QUESTION 18
1.3 RESEARCH METHOD 20
1.4 PURPOSE AND CONTRIBUTION 22
1.5 CONTENT ORGANIZATION 23
1.6 TERMINOLOGIES 25
1.7 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 26
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 28
2.1 BEHAVIOR CHANGE 28
2.2 DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY 30
2.3 MODE OF THINKING (SYSTEM1 & SYSTEM2) 32
2.4 GAP OF SERVICE QUALITY 35
2.5 CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY (CPT) 41
CHAPTER 3 MOTIVATING APPLICATIONS 44
3.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF BMIND 44
3.1.1 Preference Analysis 45
3.1.2 Appropriate Expectation Positioning 46
3.1.3 Visualization-based Cognition Behavior Reframing 47
3.2 SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE OF BMIND 49
3.2.1 Building a Mental State Module 51
3.2.2 Appropriate Mental State Module 51
3.2.3 Communicating with Cognition Module 52
3.3 SYSTEM SCENARIO 54
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY 57
4.1 MOTIVATING CONCEPT 57
4.2 CONCEPTUAL MODEL 61
4.3 SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE 71
4.3.1 Psychological Value (personal value function) 73
4.3.2 Probability weight (personal weight function) 80
4.3.3 Utility value 85
CHAPTER 5 APPLICATION SCENARIO 89
5.1 AN OVERVIEW OF APPLICATION CONTEXT 89
5.2 THE SYSTEM JOURNEY OF THE APPLICATION 90
5.3 DETAILED VIEWS OF THE BMIND SYSTEM EXPERIENCE 92
CHAPTER 6 EVALUATION 100
6.1 PROPOSITIONS 101
6.2 ASSUMPTIONS 103
6.3 EXPERIMENTS DESIGN DETAILS 105
6.3.1 Data Collection Procedure Design 105
6.3.2 Questionnaire Question Design 106
6.3.3 Design principle and experiment details 107
(a) Design principle and experiment details for Proposition 1 107
(b) Design principle and experiment details for Proposition 2 113
(c) Design principle and experiment details for Proposition 3 115
(d) Design principle and experiment details for Proposition 3-A 118
(e) Design principle and experiment details for Proposition 4 121
6.4 EVALUATION RESULTS 121
Experiment and results for Proposition 1 121
Experiment and results for Proposition 2 131
Experiment and results for Proposition 3 133
Experiment and results for Proposition 3-A 142
Experiment and results for Proposition 4 151
6.4 DISCUSSION OF FINDING 154
6.4.1 Findings for new service provider 154
6.4.2 Findings for BMIND system 156
CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSION 161
7.1 CONTRIBUTIONS 161
(1) The designed interacted adjusting system 161
(2) Psychological information of behavioral change 162
(3) Applying the cumulative prospect theory 162
7.2 MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS 163
(1) Stimulate user to co-create utility with BMIND system 163
(2) Stimulate user to do behavioral change via interacting (making choice) with adjusting system 163
(3) Using the innovative way to promote new service 164
(4) Behaviors of different roles of BMIND users 164
7.3 LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE WORKS 165
7.4 CONCLUSION REMARKS 167
APPENDIX A 168
APPENDIX B 170
APPENDIX C 171
REFERENCE 174		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 5776119 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101356024en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 顧客期望zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為經濟學zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為改變zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 心理價值zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 累積展望理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Customer Expectationsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Behavior Economicsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Behavior Changeen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Psychological valueen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cumulative Prospect Theoryen_US
dc.title (題名) 運用累積展望理論於創新服務之適當期調整zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An Application of Cumulative Prospect Theory to Appropriate Expectation Positioning of New Serviceen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) [1] Abernathy, W. J. (1978). The productivity dilemma: Roadblock to innovation in the automobile industry. Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore, MD.
[2] Alan, R. H., Salvatore, T. M., Jinsoo, P., and Sudha, R. (2004). Design science in information systems research. MIS QUART, 28 (1), 75-105.
[3] Australian Federation of AIDS Organisations (AFAO) (1996). What do they want us to do now?
[4] Bandura, A. and D. C. McClelland (1977). Social learning theory. Prentice-Hall Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
[5] Bernoulli, D. (Originally published in 1738); translated by Dr. Louise Sommer. (1954). Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk. Econometrica (The Econometric Society. 22 (1) 23-36.
[6] C. Bonomelli (2010). Innovation and Industry Life Cycle: the Case of US Tire Industry (1901-1930).
[7] Courtney, H., J. Kirkland, et al. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75: 67-79.
[8] Design Council (2005). The design process. http://www.designcouncil.org.uk/designprocess
[9] DiClemente CC, Schlundt D, Gemmell L. (2004). Readiness and stages of change in addiction treatment. Journal on Addictions. Mar-Apr;13(2):103-19
[10] DiClemente, C. C. and J. O. Prochaska (1998). Toward a comprehensive, transtheoretical model of change: Stages of change and addictive behaviors. Plenum Press.
[11] Dwayne D. G. (2001), Customer expectations of service. McGraw Hill.
[12] Feinberg, J. (1978). Psychological egoisms. In Reason & Responsibility: Readings in Some Basic Problems of Philosophy, edited by Joel Feinberg and Russ Shafer-Landau, 520-532.
[13] Fellner, W. (1961). Two propositions in the theory of induced innovations. The Economic Journal, 71: 305-308.
[14] Glanz, K., B. K. Rimer, et al. (2008). Health behavior and health education: theory, research, and practice. John Wiley & Sons.
[15] Gonzalez, R. and G. Wu (1999). On the shape of the probability weighting function. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Cognitive Psychology 38: 129–166.
[16] Hammond, K. R. (1996) Human judgment and social policy. Oxford University
Press.
[17] Heskett, J. L. and L. A. Schlesinger (1994). Putting the Service-Profit Chain to Work. Harvard Business Review. 72: 164-174.
[18] Hershey, J. C. and P. J. H. Schoemaker (1985). Probability versus certainty equivalence methods in utility measurement: Are they equivalent? Management Science, 31: 1213-1231.
[19] Helson, H. (1964). Adaptation-level theory: an experimental and systematic approach to behavior. Harper & Row.
[20] Johnson, S. P., L. J. Menor, et al. (2000). A critical evaluation of the new service development process. SAGE, 1-32.
[21] Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
[22] Kahneman D. and A. Tversky (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychological Association, 39: 341.
[23] Kahneman, D. and S. Frederick (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment, 49-81.
[24] Kahneman, Daniel (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.
[25] Kahn, B. E. and R. K. Sarin (1998). Modeling ambiguity in decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Consumer Research, 265-272.
[26] Kirkwood, C. W. (2002). Decision tree primer. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ for further details.
[27] Krzysztofowicz, R. and L. Duckstein (1980). Assessment errors in multiattribute utility functions. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26(3), 326-348.
[28] Lleras, K. S. (2012). Asymmetric Gain/Loss Preferences: Beliefs and Endogenous Reference Point Determination.
[29] Logvinenko, A. D., J. Kane, et al. (2002). Is lightness induction a pictorial illusion?. PION LTD. 31: 72-82.
[30] Müller-Lyer, F. C. (1889) Optische Urteilstauschungen (optical illusions). Archiv fur Anatomie und Physiologie, Physiologische Abteilung, 2, 263-270.
[31] Parasuraman, A., V. A. Zeithaml, & L. L. Berry (1985). A conceptual model of service quality and its implications for future research. Journal of Marketing, 49, 41-50.
[32] Parasuraman, A., V. A. Zeithaml, et al. (1988). SERVQUAL. Journal of retailing, 64: 12-40.
[33] Patten, S.,Vollman, A., & Thurston,W. (2000).The utility of the transtheoretical
model of behavior change for HIV risk reduction in injection drug users. Journal of the Association of Nurses in AIDS Care, 11(1), 57-66.
[34] Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. Mcgraw-Hill Book Company.
[35] Porter, M. E. (1986). Competition in global industries. Harvard Business Press.
[36] Prochaska, J., DiClemente, C., & Norcross, J. (1992). In search of how people
change: Applications to addictive behaviors. Journal of Addictions Nursing, 47(9), 1002-1114.
[37] Prochaska, J.O. Johnson, S, & Lee, P. (1998). The Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change. The Handbook of Health Behavior Change (Second Edition), 12: 38-48.
[38] Quiggin, J. (1985). Subjective utility, anticipated utility, and the Allais paradox. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 94-101.
[39] Reid Hastie and Robyn M. Dawes (2001). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. SAGE, 195.
[40] Richard H. Thaler (1999). Mental Accounting Matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12: 183-206.
[41] S. Charles Maurice, Christopher R. T. (2001). Managerial Economics. McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
[42] Scheufele, D. A. (1999). Framing as a theory of media effects. Journal of communication. 49: 103-122
[43] Scholl, B. J. and K. Nakayama (2002) Causal capture: Contextual effects on the perception of collision events. Psychological Science, 13: 493-498.
[44] Sheth J. N., B. I. Newman, et al. (1991). Why we buy what we buy: a theory of consumption values. Journal of business research, 22: 159-170.
[45] Stanovich, K. E. and R. F. West (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and brain sciences. 23: 645-665.
[46] Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and uncertainty. 5:297-323.
[47] Vroom, V. H. (1964). Work and motivation. Wiley.
[48] Zeithaml, V. A. (1988) Consumer perceptions of price, quality, and value: a means-end model and synthesis of evidence. Journal of Marketing, 52: 2-22.
[49] Zipf, G. K. (1949). Human behavior and the principle of least effort. Addison-Wesley Press.		zh_TW