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題名 Churn prediction in MMORPGs using player motivation theories and an ensemble approach
作者 Borbora, Z.;Srivastava, J.;Hsu, Kuo-Wei;Iams, D.W.
徐國偉
貢獻者 資科系
關鍵詞 Clustering techniques; Customer retention; Data sets; Data-driven; Data-driven approach; Data-driven model; Domain experts; Interpretability; Lift analysis; Massively multiplayer; Mmorpgs; Model complexity; Prediction accuracy; Prediction model; Prediction problem; Return on investments; Role-playing game; Customer satisfaction; Mathematical models; Motivation; Sales; Social networking (online); Social sciences computing; Forecasting
日期 2011-10
上傳時間 8-四月-2015 17:33:48 (UTC+8)
摘要 In this paper, we investigate the problem of churn prediction in Massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) from a social science perspective and develop models incorporating theories of player motivation. The ability to predict player churn can be a valuable resource to game developers designing customer retention strategies. The results from our theory-driven model significantly outperform a diffusion-based churn prediction model on the same dataset. We describe the synthesis between a theory-driven approach and a data-driven approach to a problem and examine the trade-offs involved between the two approaches in terms of prediction accuracy, interpretability and model complexity. We observe that even though the theory-driven model is not as accurate as the data-driven one, the theory-driven model itself can be more interpretable to the domain experts and hence, more preferable over a complex data-driven model. We perform lift analysis of the two models and find that if a marketing effort is restricted in the number of customers it can contact, the theory-driven model would offer much better return-on-investment by identifying more customers among that restricted set who have the highest probability of churn. Finally, we use a clustering technique to partition the dataset and then build an ensemble on the partitioned dataset for better performance. Experiment results show that the ensemble performs notably better than the single classifier in terms of its recall value, which is a highly desirable property in the churn prediction problem. © 2011 IEEE.
關聯 Proceedings - 2011 IEEE International Conference on Privacy, Security, Risk and Trust and IEEE International Conference on Social Computing, PASSAT/SocialCom 2011, 論文編號 6113108, 157-164
10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.122
資料類型 conference
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.122
dc.contributor 資科系
dc.creator (作者) Borbora, Z.;Srivastava, J.;Hsu, Kuo-Wei;Iams, D.W.
dc.creator (作者) 徐國偉zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2011-10
dc.date.accessioned 8-四月-2015 17:33:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-四月-2015 17:33:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-四月-2015 17:33:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/74404-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In this paper, we investigate the problem of churn prediction in Massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) from a social science perspective and develop models incorporating theories of player motivation. The ability to predict player churn can be a valuable resource to game developers designing customer retention strategies. The results from our theory-driven model significantly outperform a diffusion-based churn prediction model on the same dataset. We describe the synthesis between a theory-driven approach and a data-driven approach to a problem and examine the trade-offs involved between the two approaches in terms of prediction accuracy, interpretability and model complexity. We observe that even though the theory-driven model is not as accurate as the data-driven one, the theory-driven model itself can be more interpretable to the domain experts and hence, more preferable over a complex data-driven model. We perform lift analysis of the two models and find that if a marketing effort is restricted in the number of customers it can contact, the theory-driven model would offer much better return-on-investment by identifying more customers among that restricted set who have the highest probability of churn. Finally, we use a clustering technique to partition the dataset and then build an ensemble on the partitioned dataset for better performance. Experiment results show that the ensemble performs notably better than the single classifier in terms of its recall value, which is a highly desirable property in the churn prediction problem. © 2011 IEEE.
dc.format.extent 159 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.relation (關聯) Proceedings - 2011 IEEE International Conference on Privacy, Security, Risk and Trust and IEEE International Conference on Social Computing, PASSAT/SocialCom 2011, 論文編號 6113108, 157-164
dc.relation (關聯) 10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.122
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Clustering techniques; Customer retention; Data sets; Data-driven; Data-driven approach; Data-driven model; Domain experts; Interpretability; Lift analysis; Massively multiplayer; Mmorpgs; Model complexity; Prediction accuracy; Prediction model; Prediction problem; Return on investments; Role-playing game; Customer satisfaction; Mathematical models; Motivation; Sales; Social networking (online); Social sciences computing; Forecasting
dc.title (題名) Churn prediction in MMORPGs using player motivation theories and an ensemble approach
dc.type (資料類型) conferenceen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.122en_US
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.122en_US