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題名 房價與少子化因果關係之研究-以台灣六大都市為例
A Study of The Lead-lag Relationship between Housing Price and Low Fertility Rate-The Case of Six Municipalities in Taiwan作者 黃虹荏
Huang, Hong Ren貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
黃虹荏
Huang, Hong Ren關鍵詞 少子化
房價
共整合
時間序列
Granger因果關係
Low fertility rate
Housing price
Cointegration
Time Series
Granger Causality日期 2016 上傳時間 3-二月-2016 12:18:36 (UTC+8) 摘要 台灣近年來正面臨決定性的人口轉型，並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶政司的資料顯示，台灣之育齡婦女總生育率（TotalFertilityRate）於西元2003年起皆低於1.3人，成為超低生育率（thelowest-lowfertility）之國家。許多人口學文獻指出，若低生育率長期持續，在社會自我強化的機制下，很可能會落入所謂的「低生育率的陷阱」(Low-fertilitytrap)中，此外，少子化的結果也會造成未來青壯年人口的減少，進而降低國家競爭力。 過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因，卻僅以人口及社會的角度切入，較少以經濟的觀點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言，生育成本（經濟因素）的多寡可能是導致少子化的主要因素，而家庭經濟組成中的房價更是占了極高之比重。有鑑於此，本研究綜合人口、社會及經濟的角度，運用追蹤資料(panel data)與時間序列資料，分別進行迴歸估計、共整合分析及Granger因果關係檢定，以檢視台灣六個都會區（台北市、新北市、新竹地區、台中市、台南市及高雄市）房價及少子化之關係。 研究結果發現，六大都會區之總生育率與實質國內生產毛額、國民可支配所得年增率呈正向關係；與失業率、房價指數 消費者物價指數、女性高等教育比呈負向關係：進一步分析各都市之現象，台北市、新北市、台南市、高雄市的房價與少子化間存在長期關係，其中，台北市與新北市存在房價領先生育率關係，在房價長期不合理上漲趨勢下，使生育率下降；而台南市與高雄市存在生育率領先房價關係，長期所得偏低且成長速度緩慢下，民眾選擇以降低生育，減少家庭支出成本累積購屋資金，導致生育率下降，房價上升之現象。本研究之成果顯示不同區域間房價與低生育率之相互關係，可提供政府未來制訂政策時有效參考。
Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Many demographic studies indicate that social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may become reversible once fertility has been very low for a certain period, and possibly cause the "low-fertility trap." Furthermore, falling fertility phenomenon will lead to fewer young adults in the future and deteriorate the country competition. The phenomenon of overall fertility declines has sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them explore this issue from demographic and social perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the cost of childbearing might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore intends to integrate factors of demographics, sociology and economics to investigate the fertility rate by multiple regression analysis, and to explore the relationship of housing price and low fertility rate by cointegration and Granger Causality test. Finally, this study examines the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in 6 cities in Taiwan （Taipei City, New Taipei City, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City）. Results of this study found that the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City. Housing price affect to fertility rate in Taipei City and New Taipei City. In the long run, the unreasonable trend in housing price leads to low fertility rate. Fertility rate affect to housing price in Tainan City and Kaohsiung City. The income will be stagnated and economic growth will be slow. In order to reduce the household costs, households choose to reduce fertility to cope with the high housing prices. 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"The debate over low fertility in the popular press: A cross-national comparison, 1998-1999." Population Research and Policy Review 21(6): 535.The Economist,2011, The Fight from Marriage. The Economist . Retrieved February, 2, 2013.Wigniolle, B. ,2002,“Fertility, intergenerational transfers and economic development.” The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development;11(3): 297-321.Willis, Robert.,1973,. A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility ehavior. Journal of Political Economy, 81（2）,14-64.Yi, Junjian and Zhang, Junsen,2010, “The effect of house price on fertility：evidence from Hong Kong.＂ Economic Inquiry; 48(3) : p635-650. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
102257006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tsoyu Calvin en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 黃虹荏 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Huang, Hong Ren en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃虹荏 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang, Hong Ren en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-二月-2016 12:18:36 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-二月-2016 12:18:36 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-二月-2016 12:18:36 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0102257006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/81215 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102257006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣近年來正面臨決定性的人口轉型，並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶政司的資料顯示，台灣之育齡婦女總生育率（TotalFertilityRate）於西元2003年起皆低於1.3人，成為超低生育率（thelowest-lowfertility）之國家。許多人口學文獻指出，若低生育率長期持續，在社會自我強化的機制下，很可能會落入所謂的「低生育率的陷阱」(Low-fertilitytrap)中，此外，少子化的結果也會造成未來青壯年人口的減少，進而降低國家競爭力。 過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因，卻僅以人口及社會的角度切入，較少以經濟的觀點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言，生育成本（經濟因素）的多寡可能是導致少子化的主要因素，而家庭經濟組成中的房價更是占了極高之比重。有鑑於此，本研究綜合人口、社會及經濟的角度，運用追蹤資料(panel data)與時間序列資料，分別進行迴歸估計、共整合分析及Granger因果關係檢定，以檢視台灣六個都會區（台北市、新北市、新竹地區、台中市、台南市及高雄市）房價及少子化之關係。 研究結果發現，六大都會區之總生育率與實質國內生產毛額、國民可支配所得年增率呈正向關係；與失業率、房價指數 消費者物價指數、女性高等教育比呈負向關係：進一步分析各都市之現象，台北市、新北市、台南市、高雄市的房價與少子化間存在長期關係，其中，台北市與新北市存在房價領先生育率關係，在房價長期不合理上漲趨勢下，使生育率下降；而台南市與高雄市存在生育率領先房價關係，長期所得偏低且成長速度緩慢下，民眾選擇以降低生育，減少家庭支出成本累積購屋資金，導致生育率下降，房價上升之現象。本研究之成果顯示不同區域間房價與低生育率之相互關係，可提供政府未來制訂政策時有效參考。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Many demographic studies indicate that social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may become reversible once fertility has been very low for a certain period, and possibly cause the "low-fertility trap." Furthermore, falling fertility phenomenon will lead to fewer young adults in the future and deteriorate the country competition. The phenomenon of overall fertility declines has sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them explore this issue from demographic and social perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the cost of childbearing might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore intends to integrate factors of demographics, sociology and economics to investigate the fertility rate by multiple regression analysis, and to explore the relationship of housing price and low fertility rate by cointegration and Granger Causality test. Finally, this study examines the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in 6 cities in Taiwan （Taipei City, New Taipei City, Hsinchu City, Taichung City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City）. Results of this study found that the relationship between the housing price and low fertility rate in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City. Housing price affect to fertility rate in Taipei City and New Taipei City. In the long run, the unreasonable trend in housing price leads to low fertility rate. Fertility rate affect to housing price in Tainan City and Kaohsiung City. The income will be stagnated and economic growth will be slow. In order to reduce the household costs, households choose to reduce fertility to cope with the high housing prices. Results of this study provide precious implications for policy decision making in the future. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究方法與範圍 8第三節 研究流程 12第二章 文獻探討 13第一節 生育率行為相關理論 13第二節 影響生育率之因素探討 16第三節 房價與生育率之關係 19第三章 研究方法與數據來源 25第一節 資料說明 25第二節 研究方法 29第四章 追蹤資料實證結果與分析 39第一節 追蹤資料單根檢定 40第二節 追蹤資料生育率與房價之關係 41第三節 小結 49第五章 時間序列資料實證結果與分析 50第一節 時間序列資料單根檢定 51第二節 時間序列資料生育率與房價之關係 53第三節 小結 59第六章 結論與建議 60第一節 結論 60第二節 建議 64參考文獻 66附錄 71附錄一 向量誤差修正模型(Vector Error Correction Model) 71附錄二 向量自迴歸模型(Vector Autoregressive Model) 75 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1585668 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 少子化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 共整合 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 時間序列 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger因果關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Low fertility rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cointegration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Time Series en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger Causality en_US dc.title (題名) 房價與少子化因果關係之研究-以台灣六大都市為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study of The Lead-lag Relationship between Housing Price and Low Fertility Rate-The Case of Six Municipalities in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻于宗先、王金利，2009，『台灣人口變動與經濟發展』，台北：聯經出版社。李美慧，2008，「女性勞動參與率、高等教育率、結婚率及女性失業率對台灣地區生育率之影響－以縱斷面VAR模式為實證研究」，多國籍企業管理評61論﹐2(2)：93-110。林左裕，2011，「奢侈稅應急迴歸稅負機制」，聯合報，論壇，3月5日。林左裕、簡淑苹，2012，「房價與少子化的關係」，『住宅學會、都市計劃學會、區域科學學會與地區發展學會聯合年會暨論文研討會』，台北。范維君、金斗燮、 楊文山，2012，「台灣與南韓世代生育率之初步比較」，『人口學會研討會論文』：台北。張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏，2011，『經濟學』修訂四版，台北：雙葉書廊。連經宇、黃志文，2009，「台灣地區人口結構變遷對土地使用需求之影響初探」。 明新學報，35（2）：193 -212。陳旭昇，2009，『時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用』，台北：東華書局。陳明吉，2012，「抑制房價以提高生育率：以台北都會區為例」，『都市計劃』，40:191-216。陳信木、陳玉華、蕭乃沂，2012，「我國人口生育政策之研究」，行政院研究發展考核委員會：台北，88-94。彭建文、蔡怡純，2012， 「住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響─追蹤資料共整合分析應用」，『 人口學刊』，44：57-86。黃智聰、黃修梅，2005，「臺灣地區婦女學歷對生育率影響之再審視」，論文發表於〈台灣經濟學會年會〉，國立政治大學財政研究所：台北，2005年12月10日。楊奕農，2009，『時間數列分析：經濟與財務上之應用』，台北：雙葉書廊有限公司。劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪，2009，「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」，『人口學刊』，39: 119-155。劉志宏，2009，「兩岸房市的丈母娘效應」，中國時報，第15版，9 月15日。薛立敏，1996，「台灣地區的住宅負擔能力與合理房價」，『經濟前瞻』，第 47 期，39：118-121 。鍾惠民、周賓凰、孫而音，2009，『財務計量 Eviews 的運用』，台北：新陸書局股份有限公司。外文參考文獻Ahn,N, and Mira, P,2002, “A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in the developed countries.” Journal of Population Economics,15(4),667-682.Bar, M., and Leukhina,O. ,2010,“Demographic transition and industrial revolution: a macroeconomic investigation.＂Review of Economic Dynamics;13(2):424-451.Becker, G. 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