中國的一帶一路戰略，要去哪裡

Abstract

The One Belt, One Road (OBOR, 一帶一路, yidaiyilu) initiative announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 represents China’s most forthright articulation of its status as a world power yet. It is symbolically, and potentially in practice, the country’s most important foreign policy initiative of modern times. The intention of this thesis is to investigate why China is investing in the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB, 丝绸之路经济带, sichouzhilu jingjidai) portion of OBOR, explain what some of the likely geopolitical consequences will be and comment on how the existing international order should respond.\n\nI will explore why China is investing in the project and apply the theories of offensive realism and complex interdependence to analyze its motivations. I will synthesize these realist and liberal perspectives and conclude that although China does likely seek to use the SREB as part of attempts to significantly expand its power, which would probably lead to conflict with the United States, domestic and international constraints will prevent it from succeeding; at the same time, the stability-creating interlinkages and developmental advantages that are achievable through the project are something that the international order can benefit from while supporting the legitimate national development strategies of China and avoiding the potential for conflict that would come from attempting to constrain China’s ambitions.