Assessing Russia`s Role in Cross-Taiwan Strait Relations

Abstract

The role of Russia in cross-Taiwan Strait relations has been downplayed, if not ignored. This article attempts a systematic study by reviewing Russia`s Taiwan policy in different eras, discussing the importance of Russia to cross-Strait relations, and presenting three options Russia might face in a cross-Strait conflict. Three conclusions are drawn. First, Taiwan has never figured prominently in Russian foreign policy, which is true for Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation. Second, Russia has an important role in Beijing`s Taiwan policy for international, geopolitical, economic, and military reasons. Finally, Russia has a wide range of options in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. In ascending order of possibility, Russia could side with the pro-Taiwan alliance against China, side China against the pro-Taiwan alliance. or maintain benign neutrality.