アベノミクスの政治学－－第2次安倍内閣の経済政策決定過程

Abstract

本文概觀自2012年12月政權輪替起至2013年7月參議院選舉的期間，第二任安倍內閣之經濟政策決策過程，包括具體之預算編立、稅制改革、成長策略、「經濟財政改革之基本方針」等的決策過程。執政黨內對於安倍內閣於官邸主導下的決策，並無抵抗。此與民主黨政府極為對比。本文針對此安倍內閣「成功」之理由，主張因安倍內閣之經濟政策「安倍經濟學」，並無引起黨內對立，其乃眾人皆支持之政策，於是自民黨得以團結一致，進行參議院選舉。在此論點的基礎上，本文指出此類政策難以長期持續；今後自民黨內可能生成對立；再者，即使安倍經濟學實現經濟成長，基於貧富差距將擴大之觀點，輿論對於安倍內閣之批評可能升高。

This article reviews the economic policy-making process under the second Abe Administration from the House of Representatives election in December 2012 to the Upper House in July 2013. Specifically, it reviews the budget compilation, the tax system revisions, the formulation of new growth strategy, and the formulation of `Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform.` Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his Cabinet have taken the initiative to make policies, and there has been almost no resistance from the ruling parties. This contrasts strikingly with the Democratic Party of Japan government. This article explains the reasons for the success of the Abe Administration. This is because the `Abenomics`, the economic policies of the Abe Administration, were preferred by Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) politicians and did not cause internal conflict in the LDP. This allowed the LDP to unite for the Upper House election. Moreover, this article argues that the policies will not be maintained in the long term, and there might be a policy conflict within the LDP. Also, the public might blame the Abe Administration for the widening wealth gap even if the Abe Administration achieves economic growth through `Abenomics`.