亦敵亦友：臺灣民眾對中國印象的評價

Abstract

本文援引研究種族議題（或族群政治）兩個相互競逐的理論—「接觸理論」（contact theory）和「團體威脅論」（group threat theory）—作為研究架構，套用於臺灣和中國民眾的接觸經驗，檢證在兩岸人民交流互動益形密切之際，臺灣民眾對於中國的整體印象，是否會因為接觸頻繁而增進瞭解，提升好感？或者，因為接觸和溝通機會的增加，反而影響臺灣民眾對於中國印象產生負面觀感？作者擷取「2012年總統大選後國內民意對兩岸關係與大陸政策之觀點及變化」電話訪問資料，採取「因素分析」（factor analysis）將民眾對於中國大陸的好惡程度印象區分為「既定印象」、「政治印象」，以及「經濟印象」三個面向，並以「迴歸模型」（regression models）和「有序勝算對數模型」（ordered logit model）進行檢驗。本研究貢獻在於，透過實證結果顯示，在「既定印象」和「政治印象」方面，猶如研究預期，泛綠陣營支持者和本省籍選民對於中國抱持較為負面的觀感，其餘不同社會人口特徵的選民並無顯著差異;值得強調的是，在「經濟印象」方面，泛綠陣營支持者和獨立選民對於中國印象並沒有顯著差異。在結論中，本文摘述實證分析要點，並提出中國印象的研究意涵。

This study examines two contending approaches of racial/ethnic issues, the ＂contact＂ theory and the ＂group threat＂ theory, in an effort to understand how increased exposure to and contact with China affect the Taiwanese people`s perceptions of China. More explicitly, when Taiwanese investment in and trade with China increase and become more economically important to Taiwan, the attitudes of the general public in Taiwan toward the China`s image could either have a greater likelihood of being friendly positive, or are more likely to be negative with such contacts because they find them emotionally unsatisfying and unfulfilling. We take advantage of a national telephone survey conducted in 2012, employing the method of factor analysis to classify the image of China into three factors, ＂stereotyped impression,＂ ＂political impression,＂ and ＂economic impression,＂ and then using regression models and an ordered logit model to assess the Taiwanese overall disposition toward China. The findings by and large confirm that the pan-Green supporters and Taiwanese-identity voters tend to hold a negative view toward China in terms of the stereotyped and political impressions, while other sociodemographic factors account for little variance. It is worth noting that the pan-Green supporters and independent vot ers do not present statistically different for the model of economic impression of China. In the conclustion, the key findings are reviewed, and suggestions regarding the public image of China are made for future research.