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https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/123237| 題名: | 臺灣地下經濟的三個議題 Three Essays on the Shadow Economy of Taiwan |
作者: | 林朕陞 Lin, Chen-Sheng |
貢獻者: | 周雨田<br>洪福聲 Chou, Yeu-Tien<br>Hung, Fu-Sheng 林朕陞 Lin, Chen-Sheng |
關鍵詞: | 地下經濟 金融發展 經濟成長 因果關係 波動率 CARR模型 通貨膨脹 門檻模型 Shadow economy Financial development Economic growth Causality Volatility CARR model Inflation Threshold model |
日期: | 2019 | 上傳時間: | 2-May-2019 | 摘要: | 長期以來各國政府非常重視地下經濟 (shadow economy) 的發展，由於地下經濟具有隱蔽性及訊息揭露不充分等特性，不僅扭曲了經濟指標，更重要的是地下經濟的存在導致政府流失了大量的稅基及租稅收入，已影響一國長期的財政穩定與經濟發展。因此，探討地下經濟形成的原因及其影響以及地下經濟在經濟發展過程中所可能扮演的居中角色，是各國政府所必須重視的課題。在第二章，基於現存文獻在探討金融發展與經濟成長的互動關係中完全忽略了地下經濟所扮演的角色，因此我們利用共整合模型 (cointegration model) 試圖探討兩者之間的長、短期因果關係、相互解釋的能力以及模型配適度與預測能力是否因考量地下經濟而有所影響。第三章則基於既有文獻鮮少考量地下經濟規模的變動對於金融市場波動的影響，因此我們採用Chou (2005) 提出的自我迴歸條件變幅 (conditional autoregressive range, CARR) 模型來檢視地下經濟的變動如何影響我國股市波動率，並進一步探討我國金融發展的變動是否對股市波動率的影響產生不對稱效果。於第四章中我們嘗試運用非線性分析方法中的門檻模型 (threshold model) 對通貨膨脹與地下經濟的門檻效果進行實證研究，主要是探討租稅負擔、銀行發展、股市發展、政府支出、經濟成長、工資與薪資以及通貨膨脹等七個主要影響因素對於臺灣地下經濟規模變動的影響效果，是否在高、低通膨率的狀態下會發生結構性改變，據以驗證過去基於線性模型下所分析的結果。 Governments have been paying greater attention to the development of the shadow economy (SE) for a long period of time. Owing to SE’s hidden nature and its inefficient information disclosure, SE’s continual growth is distorting various economic indicators and most importantly causing erosion to a country’s tax base through loss of government revenue. This type of an economy can affect the financial stability of a country over the long term. Therefore, governments are strengthening their investigation of the determinants and effects of SE and exploring the roles played by SE during the process of economic development. Based on the existing literature that mostly explore the finance-growth relationship while completely ignoring the roles played by SE, in chapter two we employ a cointegration model to investigate whether or not the presence of this type of economy significantly alters Taiwan’s finance-growth nexus. Because the existing literature rarely takes into account the impact from changes to SE on volatility in the financial market, in chapter three we utilize the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model proposed by Chou (2005) to examine how such changes influence volatility in Taiwan’s domestic stock market and further study the asymmetric response of volatility to changes in financial development. In chapter four we adopt Hansen’s (1996) threshold model to empirically investigate the existence of inflation threshold effects in the relationship between SE and the chosen causes of SE such as tax burden, banking development, stock market development, government expenditure, economic growth, wages and salary, and inflation. We also compare the empirical results using a non-linear model with the empirical results using a linear model. |
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Tao (2002), “Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada,” Southern Economic Journal, 68:4, 859-874.\n\n第三章\n王冠閔 Wang, Kuan-Min (2006)，「金融自由化對新興股市報酬及波動之影響」“The Impact of Financial Liberalization on Stock Returns and Volatility in Emerging Equity Markets”，經濟與管理論叢 Journal of Economics and Management，2:1，71-91。(in Chinese with English abstract)\n李建強 Lee, Chien-Chiang (2005)，「銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長─臺灣的實証研究」“Banking Development, Stock Market Development, and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”，臺灣經濟預測與政策 Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy，35:2，79-105。(in Chinese with English abstract)\n林朕陞、洪福聲 Lin, Chen-Sheng and Fu-Sheng Hung (2019)，「臺灣的金融發展和經濟成長：地下經濟的角色」“Financial Development and Economic Growth in Taiwan: The Role of the Shadow Economy”，經濟研究 Taipei Economic Inquiry，55:1，71-114。(in Chinese with English abstract)\n陳旭昇 Chen, Shiu-Sheng (2013)，時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用“Applied Time-Series Econometrics for Macroeconomics and Finance”，臺北：東華書局 Taipei: Tung Hua Book Company。(in Chinese)\nAdam, M. 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Rogers, (1995), “International Stock Price Spillovers and Market Liberalization: Evidence from Korea, Japan, and the United States,” Journal of Empirical Finance, 2:2, 117-133.\nKing, R. G. and R. Levine (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might be Right,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108:3, 717-737.\nKoreshkova, T. A. (2006), “A Quantitative Analysis of Inflation as a Tax on the Underground Economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 53:4, 773-796.\nLamoureux, C. G. and W. D. Lastrapes (1990), “Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects,” The Journal of Finance, 45:1, 221-229.\nLa Porta, R. and A. Shleifer (2008), “The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 39:2, 275-363.\nLevine, R. and S. Zervos (1998), “Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth,” The American Economic Review, 88:3, 537-558.\nLoayza, N. V. (1996), “The Economics of the Informal Sector: A Simple Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Latin America,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 45, 129-162.\nMacKinnon, J. G. (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11:6, 601-618.\nMcKinnon, R. I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.\nMedina, L. and F. Schneider (2017), “Shadow Economies around the World: New Results for 158 Countries over 1991-2015,” CESifo Working Paper No. 6430.\nMincer, J. A. and V. Zarnowitz (1969), “The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts,” in Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, ed., J. A. Mincer, 3-46, New York: Columbia University Press.\nNdako, U. B. 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Wachtel (2000), “Equity Markets and Growth: Cross Country Evidence on Timing and Outcomes, 1980-1995,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 24:12, 1933-1957.\nRousseau, P. and H. Yilmazkuday (2009), “Inflation, Financial Development, and Growth: A Trilateral Analysis,” Economic Systems, 33:4, 310-324.\nRousseau, P. L. and P. Wachtel (2002), “Inflation Thresholds and the Finance-Growth Nexus,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 21:6, 777-793.\nSchneider, F. (2005), “Shadow Economies around the World: What Do We Really Know?” European Journal of Political Economy, 21:3, 598-642.\nSchneider, F. and D. H. Enste (2000), “Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences,” Journal of Economic Literature, 38:1, 77-114.\nSchwert, G. W. (1987), “Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 20:1, 73-103.\nSchwert, G. W. 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Hu (2012), “On the Asymmetric Relationship between the Size of the Underground Economy and the Change in Effective Tax Rate in Taiwan,” Economics Letters, 117:1, 340-343.\n\n第四章\n何志欽、蔡群立 Ho, Chih-Chin and Chun-Li Tsai (2014)，「臺灣地下經濟規模的估計」“Estimates of the Underground Economy in Taiwan”，臺灣地下經濟之成因研究成果報告 Underground Economy Research Report，33-52，臺北: Visa 國際信用卡組織。(in Chinese)\n李怡庭、湯茹茵 Li, Yi-ting and Ju-Yin Tang (2014)，「臺灣地下經濟的規模估計與分析」“Estimating and Analyzing the Underground Economy in Taiwan”，臺灣地下經濟之成因研究成果報告 Underground Economy Research Report, 76-89, 臺北: Visa 國際信用卡組織。(in Chinese)\n李沃牆 Lee, Wo-Chiang (2017)，「臺灣發展數位金融的機會與挑戰」 “The Challenge and Opportunity of Development Digital Finance in Taiwan”，國土及公共治理季刊 Public Governance Quarterly，5:4，28-37。(in Chinese)\n林朕陞、洪福聲 Lin, Chen-Sheng and Fu-Sheng Hung (2019)，「臺灣的金融發展和經濟成長：地下經濟的角色」“Financial Development and Economic Growth in Taiwan: The Role of the Shadow Economy”，經濟研究 Taipei Economic Inquiry，55:1，71-114。(in Chinese with English abstract)\n林慈芳 Lin, Ci-Fang (2011)，「工資與經濟成長之分析：全球趨勢與臺灣實證」“The Anaylsis of Wage and Economic Growth: Global Trend and Empirical Evidence from Taiwan”，國發會研究報告 National Development Council Research Report，93-138。(in Chinese)\n傅敬堯、林雪瑜、楊淑珺 Fu, Ching-Yao, Hsieh-Yu Lin and Shu-Chun S. Yang (2018)，「稅制調整與地下經濟—臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析」“Tax Reform and the Underground economy in Taiwan: A DSGE Approach”，臺灣經濟預測與政策 Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy，49:1，1-45。(in Chinese with English abstract)\n陳旭昇 Chen, Shiu-Sheng (2013)，時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用“Applied Time-Series Econometrics for Macroeconomics and Finance”，臺北：東華書局 Taipei: Tung Hua Book Company。(in Chinese)\n戴韻珊、孫佳宏 Dai, Yun-Shan and Chia-Hung Sun (2003)，「臺灣地下經濟之探討—MIMIC模型之應用」“Estimating the Size of Hidden Economy in a Newly Industrialized Economy: Taiwan, 1962-2002”，第五屆全國實證經濟學 The 5th Annual Conference of Taiwan’s Economic Empirics，1-21。(in Chinese with English abstract)\n蘇飛 Su Fei (2011)，「改革開放後中國地下經濟規模及其影響研究」“Study on the Size and Effects of the Underground Economy in China: 1979-2009”，西部論壇 West Forum，21:6，34-43。(in Chinese with English abstract)\nAllingham, M. G. and A. Sandmo (1972), “Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis,” Journal of Public Economics, 1:3-4, 323-338.\nAndreoni, J., B. Erard, and J. 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資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100258501 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
Files in This Item:
| File | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850101.pdf | 2.27 MB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
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