台灣兵役役期縮減對役男未來收入之影響

Abstract

本研究利用健保資料庫資料結合斷點迴歸及雙重差分法探討2004年兵役役期縮減對役男未來收入及工作狀況的影響，結果顯示縮減役期政策讓役期減少1.74個月，然而役期較短的役男並沒有花費較少時間找到第一份工作，雖然因為役期縮減讓役男在入伍後3年可以多積累1.56個月的工作經驗，但額外的工作經驗對第一份薪資沒有效果，另外對於入伍後3年跟10年的收入及擁有工作的比例也都沒有顯著影響。

Abstract\nAims and objectives: To find out the effect of ROC compulsory military service on labors’ job search and future earnings.\nBackground: In January 2004, government decided to downsize the scale of compulsory servicemen and shorten their length of service from 22 to 20 months. With a service deduction, servicemen are expected to have a longer period of time on finding a job and receive an increase on income. However, the previous researches indicate that the income effect of CMS could be positive or negative and its influence varies across countries.\nDesign and Methods: RD and RD-DID design are conducted in using National Health Insurance Research Database from 2001-2013. Follow-up on servicemen who finished service from January 2003 to June 2005 is delivered in the study and we compare their service term, job search and future income.\nResults: Servicemen with 1.74 months of deducted service didn’t spend fewer time on job search. Although they accumulated 1.56 more months of working experience 3 years after starting service, the additional experience doesn’t have influence on their income of first job. In addition, there’s no significant evidence suggesting that their income and the fraction of having a job 3 and 10 years after starting service is different between servicemen served for 22 and 20 months.\nConclusion: Service deduction affects labors’ future earnings through their job search process. This study suggests that a 2-month service deduction does not have effect on servicemen’s future earnings and the fraction of having a job.