中國「全面二孩」政策效果之分析

Abstract

中國於2015年的中國共產黨第十八屆中央委員會第五次全體會議上宣佈了終結維持數十年，且對於近代中國有著深遠影響的一胎化政策的「全面二孩」政策，並於隔年2016年開始實施。在政策實施後，出生率在不同的中國省市有了不同的變化。有的省市出生率的增長較為顯著，有的省市則較不明顯。本研究想進一步探究為何全面一胎化政策在某些省份的效果較為突出，而在某些省份的影響則相對較弱。本文發現，經濟發展因素佔了很重要的角色，經濟發展較為落後的省份在二胎化政策後的出生率成長較為不顯著，經濟發展較為進步的省份在二胎化政策後的出生率成則相對明顯。然而在資源更為充沛、發展更加完善的直轄市，出生率的成長卻並沒有顯著提高，這可能是因為基本生活開支過高的影響。本文的發現對於瞭解中國人口結構的變化以及「全面二孩」政策的有效性提供了一個初探性的觀察。

The Universal Two-Child Policy was announced in the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18the Communist Party of China Central Committee in the year 2015 and was implemented in the next year. It ended the decade-long One-Child Policy and the changes of the birth rates could be seen in the following years. It could be observed that the changes provincial / municipal birth rates varied from regions to regions. It is found in the research that the difference of the economic development plays an important role when it comes to the birth rates of the China. The provinces with better economic development had relatively prominent increase in birth rates after the implementation of the policy while provinces with less developed economic development had less obvious increase in birth rate. The changes of birth rates of the Chinese municipalities, which have much more resources, however, were not prominent. The research\ncan be a reference to other countries that want to make related policies in the future.