政變對經濟表現的影響：1958年泰國政變和1966年印尼政變的合成控制證據

Abstract

This thesis aims to assess economic performance after Sarit’s coup in 1958 and Suharto’s coup in 1966 by using the synthetic control method. The synthetic control extrapolates the trajectory of Thailand’s and Indonesia’s synthetic post-coup log GDP per capita with a weighted combination selected from the donor pool. The donor pool includes countries designated as ‘developing’ in the World Economic Survey 1963. Those developing countries must not have experienced a coup at least five years before and after Sarit’s and Suharto’s coups. The result found that the GDP per capita post-Sarit’s and post-Suharto coups increased significantly compared to the synthetic figures. In addition, this thesis also provides a theoretical explanation of the developmental state, explaining the driving forces of high economic growth in East Asia. Interestingly, Thailand and Indonesia also followed this pattern to thrive for higher economic growth. From the economic perspective, both governments have established departments to take care of the economy on the macro level, and to draft economic strategies. The post-coup government also initiated the Board of Investment in an effort to promote a friendly environment for foreign investors. In contrast, however, political suppression was widespread due to the governments’ control of labor unions that called for welfare and improved standards of living. This situation benefited capitalists, making it even easier for them to accumulate capital.