中華職棒攻守能力、效率與達標效能之研究

Abstract

中華職棒即將邁入第三十二年，國內外針對職業運動績效評估逐漸受到重視，過往常以傳統DEA法分析投入產出效率問題，而在講求專業分工的現代，探討球隊內部結構的運作勢在必行。\n本研究參考Lewis, Lock and Sexton(2009)棒球效率評估模型，將球隊分為進攻、防守和整合三個部門。本研究以Network DEA探討中華職棒2003至2018年間攻守能力、效率與達標效能的表現，進攻能力(O-capability)與防守能力(D-capability)定義為壘打數、總保送和失誤的綜合指標。另外藉由三者與得失分來衡量各球隊效率表現，並以例行賽勝率與季後賽戰績累積機率作為最終達標效能。\n實證結果顯示國內職棒打者不管在打擊或選球上都有持續進步，而在防守上失誤次數也逐漸地減少，顯示選手平均素質越來越高，卻也凸顯國內投手的問題。不論例行賽或季後賽，攻守能力與效率對達標效能皆有高度解釋力，顯示兩者確實為影響達標效能的重要因子，其中攻守能力較效率更具影響力。\n比較攻守能力與效率對達標效能的相對貢獻在例行賽和季後賽中最大的不同點是獲勝效率，在季後賽中獲勝效率對達標效能具有較高的貢獻度，推測短期且競爭激烈的賽事中，若能贏得比分較接近的比賽，將能率先取得優勢並大幅提升球隊信心，進而取得較佳成績。

The Chinese Professional Baseball League(CPBL) is about to enter its 32nd year. The performance evaluation of professional sports has gradually received attention at home and abroad. In the past, the traditional DEA method was used to analyze the efficiency of input and output. However, the operation trend of the team internal structure must be discussed in this work specialization modern time.\nThis study refers to the Lewis, Lock and Sexton (2009) baseball efficiency evaluation model, which divides the team into offense, defense, and integration. This study uses Network DEA to discuss the performance of offensive and defensive capability, efficiency and effectiveness of the CPBL from 2003 to 2018. Offensive and defensive capabilities are defined as the comprehensive index of the total bases, total walks and turnovers. In addition, the efficiency performance of each team is measured by the three factors and the runs. The regular season winning rate and the cumulative probability of the post season record are used as the effectiveness.\nThe empirical results show that domestic professional baseball players have continued to improve both in hitting and picking, and the number of defensive turnovers has gradually decreased. It not only shows that the average quality of players is getting higher and higher, but also highlights the problem of domestic pitchers. Regardless of the regular season or the post season, both offensive and defensive capability and efficiency have a high degree of explanatory power for the effectiveness. It shows that these two are the indeed important factors affecting the effectiveness and the capability is more influential than the efficiency. \nComparing the relative contribution of effectiveness between offensive and defensive capabilities and efficiency, the difference between the regular season and the post season is the winning efficiency. Winning efficiency in the post season has a higher contribution to the effectiveness. It is speculated that short-term and highly competitive events in the game. If you can win a game with a close score, you will be able to take the lead and greatly enhance the team`s confidence, and then achieve better results.