中美貿易戰下臺灣航空貨運的貿易偏轉及創造效應

Abstract

在中美的相互競爭及保護主義的興起下，美國藉由數次的貿易清單對於自中國進口的貨物加徵額外關稅，進而形成了中美貿易戰，同時影響著國際貿易。為了研究台灣是否因為中美貿易戰，而在自中國進口及出口至美國的航空貨運貿易中，有貿易偏轉及創造效應，本研究使用了最小平方法及固定效應之回歸模型，針對116個月且38個不同種類貨物的航空貨運貿易量及貿易值資料進行分析。除此之外，我也加入了主要貨物特定效果與時間趨勢的交互項；以及，動態效果與超前效果的虛擬變數，作為穩健性檢驗。分析後我發現，第一次貿易清單的施行，的確在由中國至台灣的航空貨運進口中造成了貿易偏轉的效應。而就貿易創造效應而言，10%額外關稅的第三清單以及第四清單中A部分貨物的實施，也使航空貨運的出口量及值顯著增加。由此可見，中美貿易戰在台灣自中國的航空貨運進口中，造成了貿易偏轉效應；同時，也使台灣航空貨運對美國出口量及值的增長，即發生了貿易創造效應。

With the rise of protectionism and competition, the U.S.-China trade war affected the international trade through several implementations of tariffs lists conducted by the U.S. The research aims to study whether the effects of trade deflection and creation take place in Taiwanese air freight trade under the trade war, in terms of volume and value. In this study, the OLS and the fixed effect models are used to investigate the panel data, covering 116 months with 38 air freight categories. For the robustness check, I estimate the specific effect of the five main categories and the category specific time trend effect of each air freight category by including interaction terms. Dynamic effect and leading effect are also considered with dummy variables. I find that trade deflection from China is observed when the first tariffs list takes effect. Also, the implementation of the third tariffs list with 10% tariffs rates and part A of the fourth tariffs list increase Taiwanese air freight export volume and value. In conclusion, the U.S.-China trade war results in a significant trade deflection effect on the imports from China to Taiwan in the beginning. On the other hand, for trade creation effect, tariffs action positively affects Taiwanese air freight exports volume and value.