核能議題的政策論證與風險溝通：網路輿情分析的應用

Abstract

依據 2013 年數位機會調查，我國12 歲以上民眾有76%已經上網，20-60 歲更高達九成以上；其 中又有大約三成的上網民眾曾經在政府或其他網站（如特定討論區、社群媒體如Facebook）上發表對 於政府與特定公共政策議題的看法。尤其對於核能（包括核四廠、能源規劃）等具備專業複雜度與價 值爭議性的公共政策，傳統民意蒐集管道如大眾傳播媒體、專家學者座談、與針對一般民眾電話調查， 以上述民眾逐漸習慣於在網路上表達意見的趨勢來看，不論是資料數量與更新速度都已經超越傳統民 意蒐集管道所能妥善代表的程度。更有甚者，具備專業複雜與價值爭議政策的政府主管機關，也逐漸 無從瞭解網路輿情的趨向，更遑論妥善因應與溝通。 緣此，利用網路巨量資料（或海量資料、大數據，big data）進行民意調查更成為政府及政策研 究機構必須面對的趨勢，尤其對於高衝突爭議的核能議題而言，如果能以先進技術蒐集分析呈現網路 民眾的隨特定事件變遷的大量多元意見，並妥善與傳統民意調查途徑予以整合運用，也將成為政策行 銷與風險溝通的另一重要的循證基礎。本研究即企圖透過先進的網路輿情分析技術，蒐集分析多元網 路媒介上民眾對於核能政策與其相關議題的意見，並且在一段期間內觀察其變化趨勢，同時與當時的 政治社會事件對照論述，一方面企圖萃取網路輿情在核能議題上的政策論證，同時對照政府主管機關 的政策文件與溝通內容，另一方面也特別探討對於核能議題上風險溝通的意涵。

According to 2013 Survey of Digital Opportunity, 76% citizens in Taiwan have used the Internet, and 30% of the so-called netizens have posted opinions on the websites of governments and other organizations including Facebook and PTT. Particularly for those highly professional and value controversial policy issues like Nuclear Energy, the public opinions on the Internet have gone beyond what traditional survey approaches can handle in terms of hug volume and fast updating of data. Public agencies and officials also lack knowledge and skill to transform the public opinions on the Internet to effective policy marketing and communication. Accordingly, the proposed study aims to collect and analyze the public opinions on the Internet regarding Nuclear Energy in Taiwan. As we call the process Internet Public Opinion Analysis (IPOA), the keywords, important and relevant events, and policy issue sentiments will be analyzed and presented in aid of involvement of domain experts and the framework of policy arguments. The results are expected to shed light on policy analysis for the Nuclear Energy issue, with special contribution to the policy authorities in charge of policy marketing and risk communication.