不對稱權力結構下的兩岸談判: 辜汪會談個案分析

Abstract

本文研究動機緣於台灣早期的「反共必勝、暴政必亡」到廿世紀晚期的「中國崩潰論」，其預測及論述與現實的「中國崛起論」並不相符，且對緩解「台海衝突論」毫無意義。社會科學研究總是反應時代現實，因此本文的研究目的是理論層面的探討以及時代精神的反省。本文以辜汪會談為切入點並研究九○年代以來「台海衝突論」的癥結「一個中國爭議」，論述台灣政策氛圍的集體心態調整與柔水哲學的生存觀點。本文探討兩岸潛在衝突性的解決之道並理性化台灣的最大國家利益。本文理論基礎的「柔水哲學/Habeeb理論」的實質內涵有兩層，一是集體心態上的不與強國爭勝，寧願「裡子」甚於「面子」或「裡子」與「面子」的平衡，二是政策面向的彈性與柔軟，總括其為柔性策略或彈性策略的中心概念。這在突顯其與九○年代以來，台灣面對兩岸關係的僵持無解與「鎖國心態」形成兩者之間在理念上的鮮明對比。本章以三個節項（本文結論的型模分析、柔水哲學/Habeeb理論的理念闡述、理論主張檢驗）來鋪陳本文結論與相關論述。

This dissertation mainly study Cross-strait relation of Taiwan.When Taiwan faces rising-China,it may renew the thinking,policy and collective spirit against the old one that is a survival way for Taiwan.So, this dissertation assert Taiwan may assume some soft-power and soft manner to deal rising-China.For the purpose of survival way of Taiwan,this dissertation address a case-study to research the resolution of conflict existed Cross-strait presently.In fact,Cross-strait conflict mainly result from one-China dispute.So,the survival way for Taiwan mainly strive the issue of one-China.Under the context of that spirit,Taiwan may develop some strategies and adapt attitude for accommodation the rising-China.Along the approach of case-study,this dissertation discourse the negotiation strategy in Koo-Wang talk in 1993.Additionally,soft-power and soft manner for Taiwan to treat China is a normative prescription so that this dissertation develop some statements compatible the principle of one-China.That must be a new norm for Taiwan in the new era.