中國崛起對中俄關係衝擊之研究

Abstract

「中國和平崛起」這個名詞於2003年的博鰲論壇上第一次被公開提出，引起全球熱烈討論。姑且不論中國的和平崛起本質上是否真為「和平」，本文中心意旨在討論中國崛起後，它最大也是最親密的鄰國－俄羅斯將如何看待這個亦敵亦友的大國在經濟、軍事等各方面的巨大轉變。而本文作者認為，看來正朝向親密戰略合作夥伴關係前進的中俄兩國間，其中仍存有許多可能阻礙其發展的重要因素。

The term \"China`s peaceful rise\" was first introduced at the 2003 annual session of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) and has become a hot topic drawing international attention. This thesis focuses on the changing relationship between Russia and China, especially in the period after the collapse of USSR. The new Russia and China have built their strategic partnership on diplomatic, military, and economic aspects during the period of China’s rise. During this period both countries also faced a transforming climate in their societies, with a different ideological environment, different forms of inner-party life and a different “style of work” being formed and changed rapidly at every decision-making moment.\n In the history of Sino-Soviet relations we can easily see that Mao Zedong won control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and lead it to victory by repeatedly defying Stalin’s advice, which also contributed to the formation of a Chinese Communist leadership that is highly conscious of those differences. Since the beginning of the new Russia, the so-called “peaceful rise of China” theory as a matter of course has been highly doubted. This thesis shows that many of the factors currently improving Sino-Russian relations are unlikely to sustain the current positive relationship and instead are likely to cause a divergence in their relationship, which is understood by looking at hidden factors from apparent clues that might cause a divergence between the two countries in the near future.\n\nKeywords: China, Russia, International Relations, Sino-Soviet Relations, “China’s peaceful Rise”