以實質選擇權觀點評估更新土地之研究

Abstract

待開發土地價值之評估，多以未來收益為基礎之收益還原法為之。惟無論是直接資本化的收益還原法、加入動態的現金流量法，均為財務上淨現值法則（NPV 法則）的運用。由於淨現值法具有不可延遲性與可回復性之假設，與現實狀況有所出入，故近來諸多學者致力於實質選擇權之研究，期能彌補淨現值法則所忽略之管理彈性與時機延遲問題。可更新土地基本上亦具有可供再開發的潛力，現於台灣地區被廣泛應用於評估可更新土地價值之土地開發分析法，亦面臨前述忽略最適開發時機選擇之問題。本文基於可更新土地亦應具有選擇權價值的觀點，建立可更新土地評價模式，經由模型探討求得影響可更新土地選擇權價值的變數，及其影響方向。並藉由數值模擬，分析各變數對該選擇權價值的影響。

Income Approach Basing on future income is the main valuation method for redevelopment land. No matter what Direct Capitalization method or Discounted Cash Flow analysis is applied the Net Present Value rule. Both all ignore the characteristic of deferability and irreversibility. Real option theory recognizes that the owner can develop/redevelop the property at some point in the future when the present value of the benefits exceeds the present value of costs. Residual valuation for development is the main method to evaluate the urban redevelopment land in Taiwan. It also has the problems of impossibility for delaying investment and reversibility. This study establishes the valuation model for redevelopment land from the viewpoint of urban redevelopment land must consider the option value. Through that the author shows the factors and how they effect on option value. Finally, there are some suggestions to the urban regeneration policy.