中共一胎化政策及其影響之研究

Abstract

中國是世界上人口最多的國家，公元2000年已達12.6億人，占全球的五分之一強，因此，中國的人口政策及其成敗受到全球普遍的關注。其人口政策50餘年來的發展，呈現著左右搖擺的反覆現象。\r\n 1971年~1998年實施計劃生育政策期間，人口效益共計少生了3.38億人；經濟效益則為國家和家庭節省了7.4萬億元；社會效益有：1.減緩社會的就業壓力；2.促進教育事業的發展；3.改善健康狀況；4.提高婦女地位，以及其他的資源效益和環境效益等等。\r\n 計劃生育的負面效應則有：1.「四．二．一」綜合症；2.人口高齡化；3.獨生子女教養問題；4.性別比失調；5.人口素質逆淘汰；6.徵兵困難；7.體壇後繼乏人；8.幹部與群眾之間矛盾日益尖銳。\r\n 對大陸未來人口政策可能走向的研析：\r\n 甲案為：全大陸普遍允許雙方為獨生子女的夫婦可以生育二孩，此方案影響最小。城鎮夫婦雙方為獨生子女的概率將從目前不到1％升至2020 年的40％，農村則一直為1％。據預測，2010年總人口為13.8億，2040年達到峰值15.5 億後進入負增長，2050年減至15.2億。\r\n 乙案為：全大陸城鄉只要一方是獨生子女的夫婦（包括雙方都是獨生子女）可以生育二孩。此方案影響較大，據估計，城鎮夫婦中一方為獨生子女從2000年的15％增至2020年的87％，農村則從1％增加到19％。2010年總人口為13.88億，峰值在2045年將接近15.9億。\r\n 丙為折衷方案，即在城鎮允許雙方是獨生子女的夫婦、在農村允許一方是獨生子女的夫婦可以生二孩，影響介於甲乙案。即2010年為13.77~13.88億，峰值在2040~2045年約為15.5~15.9億然後進入負增長。

Presently, China is the most populated country in the world. Its population has reached 1.26 billion in 2000-more than one fifth of the worldwide population. As a result, the outcome of China’s population policy has become an issue of global concern. However, China has been swung back and forth on its \"birth control\" policy in the past fifty years.\r\n During 1971~1998, when Chinese government enforced the \"one child\" policy, the birth rate has effectively reduced the population growth by 338 million, and a saving of a total of $74 zillion dollars for the government and the people. The society also benefits on: (1.) less pressure and competition on the employment ; (2.) more educational resources for the people ; (3.) more improvement on health condition ; ( 4.) a promotion of social status for women ; (5.) better distribution of other resource and preservation of the environment.\r\n The downsides from the practice of the \"one child\" policy are: (1.) a syndrome from the [4-2-1] family structure ; (2.) aging of the population; (3.) difficulty in discipline the single child of the family; (4.) inappropriate gender ratio ; (5.) reverse selection of population quality ; (6.) difficulty in military draft ; (7) inferior outplays in athletic performance ; (8) confliction between birth control administration officers and the general public.\r\n Based on the research, three population policies China may adapt in the future. To be qualified to have two children,\r\n A) For families in both villages and cities, allow parent who were both from single child families to have a second child. However, this scheme has the least impact with a predict population of 1.38 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040.\r\n B) For families in both villages and cities, parents who were either or both from single child family are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has most impact with a predict population of 1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2045.\r\n C) For families in cities, parents who were both from single child families, and for families in villages, parents who are either or both from single child family, are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has the mediate impact with a predict population of 1.377~1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55~1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040~2045.