中國國家能力研究與崩潰論失準討論

Abstract

天安門事件後的中國崩潰論，直到九○年代的中後期，仍在國際間不絕於耳。但若對照當今的中國崛起，則這都屬理論預測或經驗判斷對事實的落差或預測失準，這是值得研究的。至於，如何解釋與調適崩潰論與現實中國的落差，並嘗試改善對中國預測的模型，則是本文之研究目的。共產國家國際結構骨牌分析以及政治保守、經濟改革的崩潰預測，其推論過程都忽略中共因素的反應與抵制，以及中共回應外界變遷與挑戰的能力。本文擬從國家能力觀點對上述議題作分析。

Since the appearance of the China collapse theory after the Tiananmen incident, discussions over the Middle Kingdom`s collapse have been incessant. However, compared with China`s rise today, it is interesting to observe the theory`s failed prediction and misinterpretation of empirical evidences. This article aims to close the gulf between theory and reality and improve on models that attempt to forecast China`s future. Domino theories and pessimistic predictions about communist states fail to take into account the CCP`s ability to react and respond to changes and challenges from the outside world. This article tackles the issue from the approach of state capacity theory.