一九九八年菲律賓總統大選

Abstract

菲律賓在一九九八年五月舉行總統選舉，由艾斯特拉達當選總統，為菲國自有總統選舉以來首位平民出身的總統。艾斯特拉答被視為「非傳統型政客」，雖然其人品瑕疵，但普受選民歡迎。儘管艾斯特拉達代表的是平民型人物，不過他的當選並無法完全改變菲國的菁英寡頭統治的政治結構。其此，菲國天主教會透過各種途徑極力阻止艾斯特拉達當選總統，但選民並沒有聽從教會的指示，顯示教會對選舉的影響已大不如前。此外，這次選舉也反映了憲政主義的勝利，原因是在選前有些政客意圖透過群眾運動及司法程序修改憲法，俾讓羅慕斯可以競選連任總統，但這些企圖終告失敗。就此而言，此不僅為菲國憲政主義之勝利，也是民主政治進一步鞏固的象徵。

Joseph Estrada was elected president of the Philippines on May 11, 1998. He is the first president to come from a popular family background since Philippines began holding presidential election in 1936. Estrada has been seen as a non-traditional style politician. Although his personal character has been criticized by Cardinal Sin, the leader of the Catholic Church, he receives popular support from the middle and lower levels of Filipino society. However, his election to the presidency cannot transform the Philippino elite oligarchical structure into a class-less society. Secondly, the catholic Church has enjoyed a great influence on the voting attitudes of the general population since the mid 1980s, but failed to influence this most recent presidential election. Voters did not heed the warnings of Cardinal Sin, who argued that it would be a disaster for the Philippines if Estrada were to be elected. Such disobedience shows that the role of the Catholic Church in politics has decreased. Thirdly, this election reconfirms the success of constitutionalism. During the 1998 election campaign, the constitutionalists defeated a group of ambitious politicians who attempted to modify the 1987 constitution to allow two terms for incumbent presidents. This constitution-building signifies that Philippino politics has moved further to democratic consolidation.