Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/64744
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor經濟系en_US
dc.creator陳樹衡zh_TW
dc.creatorYu, Tongkui ; Chen, Shu-Hengen_US
dc.date2012en_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-20T08:24:07Z-
dc.date.available2014-03-20T08:24:07Z-
dc.date.issued2014-03-20T08:24:07Z-
dc.identifier.urihttp://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/64744-
dc.description.abstractWe propose a simple agent-based model of the political election prediction market which reflects the intrinsic feature of the prediction market as an information aggregation mechanism. Each agent has a vote, and all agents’ votes determine the election result. Some of the agents participate in the prediction market. Agents form their beliefs by observing their neighbors’ voting disposition, and trade with these beliefs by following some forms of the zero-intelligence strategy. In this model, the mean price of the market is used as a forecast of the election result. We study the effect of the radius of agents’ neighborhood and the geographical distribution of information on the prediction accuracy. In addition, we also identify one of the mechanisms which can replicate the favorite-longshot bias, a stylized fact in the prediction market. This model can then provide a framework for further analysis on the prediction market when market participants have more sophisticated trading behavior.en_US
dc.format.extent359647 bytes-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoen_US-
dc.relationMulti-Agent-Based Simulation XII Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 7124, 2012, pp 31-43en_US
dc.subjectPrediction market; Agent-based simulation;Information aggregation mechanism; Prediction accuracy; Zero-intelligence agents; Favorite-longshot biasen_US
dc.titleAgent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets for Political Electionsen_US
dc.typebook/chapteren
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.openairetypebook/chapter-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en_US-
Appears in Collections:專書/專書篇章
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
3143.pdf351.22 kBAdobe PDF2View/Open
Show simple item record

Google ScholarTM

Check


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.