The Evolution of Central-Provincial Relations in Post-Mao China, 1978-98: An Event History Analysis of Provincial Leader Turnover

Abstract

The decentralized economic reforms in post-Mao China have aroused a debate in the studies of central-provincial relations over whether the center has lost control to the increasingly powerful provinces. This article uses the turnover of provincial leaders as an indicator to reassess the evolution of central-provincial relations. By subjecting contending theories of the debate to a statistical test that covers a time period including both the Deng and Jiang regimes, this study finds that the center was neither gradually losing control over the provinces, nor keeping constantly effective supervision of the provincial leaders with coherent policy criteria. Central-provincial relations in fact varied over time, and their fluctuation was affected by changes in the broader political context, such as succession politics during regime change.