中國都市家庭平均消費傾向:依據收入水準分析(1992-2012)

Abstract

為了解1992年至2012年中國都市家戶平均消費傾向的遞減情形，本研究旨在衡量教育支出、醫療支出、家戶總所得、家戶眷口數以及所得成長對於所得水準的影響，探究所得水準的改變與平均消費傾向的遞減間的關係。本文使用中國經濟數據庫，以分量迴歸法，並在1995年至1996年與2000年至2002年兩個區間加入轉折點分析。實證結果顯示，醫療支出和中國的平均消費傾向呈負相關；教育支出、家戶眷口數和中國的平均消費傾向則呈正相關。其中教育支出成長路徑小於家庭總所得的成長解釋了教育支出對平均消費傾向的正向影響；而家戶眷口數的增加提升家戶的基本支出的解釋家戶眷口數和平均消費傾向的正向關係。值得注意的是，儘管總體而言，所得成長和家戶總所得對平均消費傾向有負向影響，若以所得級距做分組，高所得組之分析結果則顯示所得成長和家戶總所得對平均消費傾向有正向影響，低所得組之分析結果則反之。\n 1995年至1996年與2000年至2002年兩個區間的分量迴歸分析顯示，家戶平均消費傾向的遞減主要源自於兩個原因：（一）裁員的增加；（二）所得的趨異。因此，在長期之下，減少不確定性的政策、家戶對於健康與住房的支出、對經濟穩定成長的肯定、既存財富的重分配、家戶人口數的增加等，皆使平均消費傾向增加。相反地，短期之下所得成長或者家戶購買力的大幅下降使平均消費傾向增加，但因Duesenberry Effect，長期之下平均消費傾向則減少。

In trying to understand the decreasing in Average Propensity to Consume (APC) of Urban Chinese Households throughout the period 1992 to 2012, this study aims to measure the impact of Education, Health, Housing, Dependence and Income Growth on the APC of the Urban Chinese Households by Income Level. Using the CEIC Database, this work uses the Quantile Regression as the main method for the quantitative analysis. The results show that Health has a negative impact on the Chinese APC; and that Education and Dependence has positive relation. For the variables Income Growth and Housing, despite of the negative impact over the APC at the national level, the same relation is different in an analysis by income level – for the wealthier families, Housing has a positive relation to the APC (differently from the less wealthier ones); and for the less wealthy households, Income Growth is positively related to the APC.\nA short qualitative section, “Analysis of the Turning Points: 1995-1996 and 2000-2002”, shows that main downturns of the National APC was mainly due to (1) the increasing number of laid-off workers; and, by (2) the real variation of income. Therefore, policies that decrease uncertainties, the household expending on health and housing, and encourage stable growth, redistribute the existing wealth and increase of the size of the family would tend to increase of the APC in a long run. In contrary, drastic decrease of Income Growth or the power of purchase of the families, for example, also would lead to the increase of the APC, but in a short term due to the Duesenberry Effect – trend that afterward tend to decrease in a long run.