普欽在俄中美三角關係中的戰略選擇

Abstract

基於文化與歷史因素，俄羅斯的國家發展一直都是傾向西方。本文中論道，美國對俄羅斯的刻板態度與北約東擴都令俄羅斯深感不安。因此，東亞對俄羅斯抗衡西方深具意義。尤其是中國的崛起已成為俄羅斯對外戰略選擇的重要參考。然而俄羅斯終究遇到兩難－與中國親善交好，將會幫助中國相對提升其國際地位；卻有傷自身的國家利益。本質上，俄羅斯對中國的崛起也甚感不安，這使得其對中的親善政策持有疑慮與保留。歐巴馬總統由單極轉向多極的國際政治觀，提供普欽一個在俄中美三角關係重新定位的空間，然而相對於美國政府嚴厲批評普欽選舉的不民主；中國政府卻是全力支持普欽。對比之下，在普欽總理任內或2012一旦選上總統後，俄中美三角關係無疑應會向俄中傾斜。

Russia`s foreign policy has been Western-oriented due to historical and cultural reasons. This paper argues that the US`s attitude towards Russia and the increasing expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe leads Russians to feel insecure. Consequently, East Asia has become significant to Russia in coping with the West. Above all, China`s rise is predominant in Russia`s policy options. Nevertheless, Russia will finally encounter a dilemma that rapprochement with China may help improve China`s relative position in world politics. In essence, Russia`s anxieties toward China`s rapid rise make Russia`s rapprochement toward China skeptical and reserved. The new approach, taken by President Obama, shifting from unipolar into multipolar global politics, offers Putin a new arena to re-identify Russia itself in the Russia-China-US triangle. The US government`s fierce criticism of the Russian government being undemocratic during the elections process, along with the Chinese government`s full support of Putin will make the Russia-China-US triangle naturally tilted toward Russo-Chinese side during Putin`s office of premiership or for a certain time if he is elected in the presidential election 2012.