Multiple Equilibria and International Monetary Coordination

Abstract

由於一個具有轉折點的總體理論的提出，解決了Lucas兩難抉擇的問題。一個非線性的反饋政策用以衡量國際政策協調。最適化的福利函數包含了任何非平滑和不被確知的目標函數。此一途徑被用於最適化和競局策略，它拒斥了Fama認為實質利率是不變的假說，也拒斥了Kinal和Lahiri所提出的隨機漫步模型，並具有理論和政策的重要性。

A macro theory with turning point is provided; and Lucas` dilemma (1976) is solved. The nonlinear feedback policy is estimated for international policy coordination. The welfare functions to be optimized include any nonsmooth and not exactly know objective function. This approach is applicable for both optimization and game strategies. It rejects the hypothesis that the real interest rate is constant (Fama, 1975) or follows a random walks model (Kinal and Lahiri, 1988). This has theoretial and policy relevance (Tobin, 1983) for turning points.