二○○一年泰國大選的政經分析

Abstract

一九九七年爆發的東亞金融風暴，泰國因為本身政經制度的設計與運行不良，遭受到重大的打擊。對此泰國國內要求政治改革的聲浪相當高，當時的民主黨政府只得順應民意修改憲法，希望能有效改善當前政經制度所帶來的負面影響。但是泰國在二○○一年所舉行的大選中，候選人競選花費之高與賄選等違規事件之多也是歷年來最嚴重的一次，顯見之前的改革並未收到成效。根據最終的選舉結果顯示，由泰國電信業鉅子塔克辛（Thaksin Shinawatra）所領導的泰愛泰黨以民粹主義與民族主義為主要訴求，在500個席次當中贏得將近過半的248席，塔克辛本人也順利當選泰國第23任的總理。至於乃川（Chuan Leekpai）所領導的民主黨則因為在一九九七年之後執行無條件的全球化政策，引起泰國民眾的普遍不滿，在500席當中只拿下128席，黯淡地結束一九九七年十一月以來的執政生涯。泰國大選雖然在爭議不斷之中結束，但是後續的發展卻更值得關注，塔克辛本人龐大的商業利益與背景、泰愛泰黨所訴求的民粹主義以及舊有保守勢力的復辟，都有可能進一步強化泰國原先的金權政治，將泰國帶向不確定的未來。

The general election held on January 6, 2001 in Thailand is the first and most important since the amending of the constitution in 1997. While meant to reform “Money Politics,” the election still was the most expensive and dirtiest ever. According to the 1997 People’s Power Constitution, there are 500 members in the House of Representatives – 100 members are elected on a party-list basis while 400 members are chosen on a constituency basis. The Democrat Party, lead by former Prime Minister Chuan Leepai, failed in this election. The party captured only 128 seats, because the unconditional globalization policy followed by the party since 1997 dissatisfied most Thais. The Thai Rak Thai Party, lead by telecommunications tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra and valuing popularism and nationalism, surprisingly won the election with 248 seats. Thaksin soon became the 23rd Prime Minister of Thailand. However, his conservative characteristics, popularist policies, and a doubtful cabinet line-up will bring Thailand into an uncertain future.