台灣機會中獎對創業行為之實證分析

Abstract

本研究利用機會中獎所得作為所得之外生變數，觀察中大獎者相對於中小獎者在中獎後創業及相關行為上的選擇是否有所影響。我們首先以稅前中獎金額在新台幣100萬元以上之台灣機會中獎樣本作為實驗組，另外以稅前中獎金額在新台幣2000-5000元樣本作為控制組，利用差異中的差異法（difference-in-differences，DID）進行分析，觀察實驗組樣本在中獎前後相較控制組在創業上的效果是否存在差異。我們發現實驗組在是否創業的行為選擇上，確實相較於控制組有正向顯著相關。接著我們利用相關變數的條件進行分組，並將觀察依變數增加為創立公司數目、是否達一定之公司規模及公司年營業額進行觀察。同時，我們發現年輕族群相較於年長族群，在本研究主要結果中都有著更為顯著的效果。除了年紀分組外，中獎前是否為老闆、中獎前總所得與總財富等都對創業行為的選擇有所影響。最後，我們將個人創業模型延伸至家戶創業，發現家戶創業結果與個人創業並無明顯差異，而藉由調整實驗組中獎金額的結果發現，中獎金額的大小是影響創業規模的重要因素。

This paper study the effect of windfall gains on entrepreneurial activity using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes provided by the Taiwan lottery winners. We provide evidence about unexpected income results in exogenous variation for wealth. Trying to compare two groups, one is that winners won between 2,000 to 5,000 New Taiwan Dollars (NT$) and the other group is that winners won over 1millionNT$. Our estimates imply that winners who won over 1 million NT$ increases significantly in starting a business, and significantly increase in the company revenue. In addition, the effect also increase in company scale after winning a lottery at first, second year. But this effect will down at third year. Our results suggest that age, wealth or income constraints, and whether already be a boss are the important keys of entrepreneurial activity. Finally, we also test that won over 5million NT$ could increase entrepreneurial activity than 1million NT$.