台股指數對台北市房價影響之分析

Abstract

過去國內外有許多實證分析指出股票市場對房價有顯著的正向影響，本文以房價上漲最具代表性的台北市為樣本，使用房屋實價登錄資料進行兩階段迴歸分析，探討台灣股票市場是否對房價有顯著影響。中古屋或新成屋市場的實證結果顯示，相較於總體經濟環境，房屋特徵才是影響房價的關鍵原因，間接說明股票市場對其房價影響程度並不顯著。另一方面，預售屋市場則會同時受到房屋特徵變數和總體經濟變數的影響，其中股票市場對房價具有正向的解釋力。這樣的結果顯示總體經濟效果與股票市場所帶來的財富效果，以台北市而言，僅作用於預售屋市場，對中古屋與新成屋市場則沒有顯著影響。

In the past, there have been many empirical analyses at home and abroad that pointed out that the stock market has a significant positive impact on housing prices. This paper uses the housing market in Taipei City, the most representative housing market in Taiwan, as the database, using the real-value registry housing data to conduct a two-stage estimator to analyze whether the Taiwan stock market has a significant impact on housing prices. The empirical results of the pre-owned and new readily available housing market show that compared with the economic environment, housing characteristics are the key reason for housing prices, which indirectly indicates that the impact of the stock market on housing prices is not significant. On the other hand, the pre-sale housing market will be affected by both the characteristics of the housing and the economic variables, and the stock market has a positive explanatory power for housing prices. The results show that the impact of economic and wealth effect of the stock market on housing prices is only found in the pre-sale housing market, and have no significant effect on the pre-owned and new readily available housing market.