能源市場衝擊與穩定政策效果之評估

Abstract

本文透過建立一個新興凱因斯的動態隨機一般均衡模型，用以分析能源市場發生變化時，中央銀行採取穩定政策平穩經濟的效果。本文發現，若衝擊來自能源市場需求面，即要素生產力衝擊，則泰勒法則較麥卡勒姆法則具有穩定經濟的作用；若衝擊來自能源市場供給面，則泰勒法則在穩定通貨膨脹方面較為有效，而麥卡勒姆法則在穩定產出缺口方面較為有效。此外，本文亦發現依循麥卡勒姆法則制定的貨幣政策，對刺激家計單位的勞動供給以及經濟體系的均衡產出亦較為有效。

We analyze the effects of the stabilization policy for energy market shocks using a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In the case of the total factor productivity shock, which is the energy demand shock, the policy that follows Taylor’s rule is more useful than the policy that follows McCallum’s rule for stabilizing the economy. In the case of the energy supply shock, Taylor’s rule is useful for stabilizing inflation, while McCallum’s rule is useful for stabilizing output gap. Moreover, we find that McCallum’s rule drives the labor supply of the household more obviously than Taylor`s rule, and thus, McCallum’s rule is more useful for driving the output.